As Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia’s oil refineries and other civilian infrastructure, the Mecca/Makkah pact, signed last month, is once again in the news.
On September 8, Houthis attacked four south-western Saudi cities, causing fires at oil facilities and installations that led to a temporary halt in operations, according to Saudi Arabia’s military and energy ministry.
The Houthis said the attacks were retaliation for a Saudi attack on a Yemeni prison facility on September 7 that killed 11 people.
With the Houthi attack on Saudi oil facilities, the war in the Middle East has reached a new dangerous phase.
As fighting between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi militants intensifies, questions are being raised about the effectiveness of the Mecca Pact. The agreement, signed on August 7 between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, declared that an armed attack on any one of them would be treated as an attack on all three.
While questions remain over whether Pakistan or Turkey would join Saudi Arabia against the Houthis, Russia has made a striking suggestion: that Iran itself should consider joining the mutual security alliance, and that Moscow would welcome Tehran as a member.
Russia Wants Iran to Join Mecca Pact
On September 7, addressing students and faculty at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said Iran could join the Mecca Defense Treaty in the future.
“Now is the time to organize cooperation between countries with the help of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan,” Lavrov said.
He noted that the arrangement remains open to additional members and described Iranian participation, under agreed conditions, as a potential step that would advance regional stability.
“And they (Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) say that the doors to participation are open for other countries, and not just for the Gulf countries, but also for Egypt,” he said.
“At some stage, conditions could be agreed upon that would allow Iran to become part of this process.”
Lavrov framed such expansion as consistent with Russia’s broader concepts for security cooperation in the region.
If Iran also becomes part of the Mecca Defense Alliance, Lavrov said, “it will be a very good practical step towards the concept that Russia has already put forward.”
Lavrov said Russia proposed more than two decades ago that Gulf countries and Iran engage in dialogue to develop a regional security concept, despite their complex relations.
“Recognizing that relations between them are complex, we proceeded from the assumption that we would facilitate meetings, discussions of mutual grievances, and agreement on certain confidence-building measures,” he said.
Notably, Lavrov made the suggestion on September 7, and the very next day, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan met with him in Moscow.
However, we do not know if Iran’s inclusion in the Mecca Pact was discussed during the meeting.
Lavrov’s suggestion is puzzling, to say the least, as while Iran is a strategic defense partner of Moscow, all three Mecca Pact countries – Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey – are close US partners. Turkey is even a NATO member.
In fact, during the Ukraine War, Iran was one of the few countries that openly provided Moscow with military help. Tehran shared its low-cost Shahed drone designs with Moscow, which Russia developed into deadly Geran drones.
Furthermore, while the Iranian-backed Houthis are carrying out attacks in Saudi Arabia, the Russian Foreign Minister is talking about Iran’s possible involvement in the Saudi-led Mecca defense alliance.
So the question is: why is Moscow pushing one of its close defense and strategic partners into an alliance made up exclusively of countries close to Washington?
Why Does Russia Want Iran in the Mecca Pact?
Part of the answer lies in Lavrov’s statement itself.
Lavrov said that Moscow proposed more than two decades ago that Gulf countries and Iran engage in dialogue to develop a regional security concept.
Ever since the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran, the US has played the role of net security provider in the Middle East.
The US has strategic partnerships with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Egypt, and Turkey, and it maintains nearly 20 military bases in the region.
Nearly 50,000 US soldiers are stationed at these bases, giving Washington a permanent foothold in the region.
This gives the US diplomatic and economic influence in this energy-rich region.
Gulf monarchies are among the biggest buyers of US weapons, and they invest billions of dollars in the country.
For instance, under President Trump’s second term, Gulf governments have announced plans to invest over USD 3 trillion in the US.
However, US influence in the region, including its military and economic role, will decline dramatically if Gulf countries, instead of depending on Washington for security, seek to solve regional security problems themselves.
At the same time, a reduced US role in the Middle East will open possibilities for Russia and China to increase their influence in this critical region.
According to Dr. Khurram Iqbal, associate professor at the National Institute of Intelligence and Security Studies at Quaid-e-Azam University in Pakistan, both Russia and China will benefit from the Mecca Defense Alliance.
“The weaker the US’s role as the sole security provider, the more opportunities will arise for Russia and China to expand their political and diplomatic influence,” Dr. Iqbal told BBC Urdu.
According to him, Moscow has long supported the position that regional countries should find solutions to regional security problems themselves.
According to Abdul Basit, former Pakistani diplomat, Sergei Lavrov’s statement itself indicates that Russia has no fundamental objection to the Mecca Agreement.
Notably, the Mecca Pact itself is a direct outcome of the US failure to provide security to its partners in the region and protect them from Iranian drones and missiles.
If this alliance expands, it will automatically reduce the US role in the region.
Furthermore, if Iran becomes part of this alliance, then the only security threat to this alliance will come from Israel, which is Washington’s closest security partner in the region. Therefore, in that case, the alliance could be framed as a regional security alliance against the US-Israel partnership.
Russia, however, has another motive for advocating Iran’s entry into the Mecca alliance. That goal is not so different from its aims in the war in Ukraine: to sow divisions within NATO and discredit the alliance.
Putin understands that Russia can not defeat NATO in a direct military conflict. His aim, therefore, is not to get involved in an open war with NATO, but to sow divisions in the alliance, break its unity, and discredit the alliance.
Turkey, a NATO member, is a founding member of the Mecca alliance.
If Iran joins the Mecca Pact and shifts its orientation away from the US, it will also adversely affect NATO, as Turkey is not only a NATO member but also has the second-largest standing army in the 32-member security alliance after the US.
Furthermore, it will help Moscow break the US dollar’s stranglehold on the oil trade, as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia have some of the world’s largest oil reserves.
Why Iran Would Not Join The Mecca Alliance
However, it is highly unlikely that Iran will join the Mecca alliance, as Iranian regional interests and long-term goals fundamentally oppose Saudi interests.
Iran joining the Mecca pact would be akin to China joining the QUAD, or Russia joining NATO.
Furthermore, any rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh will necessarily have to include an understanding on the Houthis, and perhaps on Hezbollah as well.
Iran has spent decades building these proxy groups to extend its influence across the Gulf. Betraying these groups now would undo decades of its work and curtail its influence in the region.
Even if Tehran agrees to limit Houthi activities, it’s hard to imagine Saudis and Iranians reaching an understanding on the role of Houthis in Yemen.
In other words, fundamental contradictions between Iran’s and Saudi Arabia’s regional interests cannot be settled easily.
Not to forget that Iran is competing for the leadership of the Muslim world with all three countries of the Mecca Pact – Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey.
Therefore, even if Iran joining the Mecca Pact would offer practical advantages for Russia, Tehran is unlikely to join the security alliance.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
- This is an OPINION ARTICLE
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
