As the US targets a 60 percent stealth force by 2035 and considers ramping up production of fifth-generation F-35s and sixth-generation F-47s to meet that goal, the F-16, the US Air Force (USAF) mainstay for the last four decades, is quietly seeing a revival.
Lockheed Martin, the F-16’s manufacturer, has hundreds of export orders in its backlog for the upgraded F-16 Viper variant; it is pitching a new variant, the F-16G, to the USAF and could arm it with hypersonic missiles.
Notably, the single-engine F-16 first flew in the 1970s. Lockheed Martin’s recent “F-16 Fast Facts” states that roughly 2,800 F-16s are operating in 29 countries.
Even as the USAF moves toward an overwhelming stealth force, the F-16 is refusing to quietly fade into oblivion, and Lockheed Martin expects the fighter jet to bring the company hundreds of new orders and another round of growth.
Hypersonic Missiles
When it comes to air-launched hypersonic missiles, Russia may have established a lead.
In the war in Ukraine, Russia demonstrated that it can launch hypersonic missiles, primarily the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal from the MiG-31 and R-37M from the Su-35 and Su-57.
However, many Western analysts question whether both missiles, the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal and R-37M, qualify as hypersonic missiles.
According to CSIS’s The Missile Threat, the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal is a nuclear-capable, Russian air-launched ballistic missile, likely derived from Russia’s ground-launched 9K720 Iskander-M. The missile follows a ballistic or quasi-ballistic flight path rather than operating as a scramjet cruise missile or a maneuvering hypersonic glide vehicle.
However, because the missile can reach speeds up to Mach 10, it may qualify as a hypersonic missile. Due to its limited maneuverability, Ukraine’s Patriot AD systems have intercepted the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal on multiple occasions.
The US was trailing in the hypersonic race, but is currently testing four air-launched hypersonic missiles: the ARRW (Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon), HACM (Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile), Mako, and Blackbeard, with multiple aircraft, including the F-15EX, F/A-18 Super Hornet, F-35 & F-22.
The Blackbeard hypersonic missile, a low-cost, air-launched hypersonic weapon developed by American defense contractor Castelion for the US Navy and Air Force, has already been tested with the F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and can also be launched from ground-based HIMARS.
However, Castelion is now also trying to pair the hypersonic missile with the F-16.
Hypersonic Missiles for F-16s?
On October 26, Castelion announced it has received a contract modification under its existing work with the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to begin integrating its Blackbeard hypersonic weapon onto the F-16 Fighting Falcon.
Notably, Castelion has so far been a Navy and Army story in the US, working to integrate the missile into the US Navy’s carrier-capable F/A-18E/F Super Hornets and the US Army’s HIMARS.
If the F-16 integration succeeds, it will bring the Blackbeard hypersonic missile to the USAF fleet as well.
Castelion has not disclosed the contract’s financial terms with AFRL or when the F-16 might first carry or fire the weapon.
According to US Navy plans for the Blackbeard program, a single F/A-18E/F is designed to carry up to four of these long-range hypersonic weapons. Since the F-16 and F/A-18E/F have broadly similar payload capacity, a single F-16 is expected to carry four Blackbeard hypersonic missiles.
Blackbeard is designed to fly above Mach 5 while maneuvering, making it far harder to intercept than a weapon on a predictable ballistic path.
Additionally, because Blackbeard is designed as a relatively low-cost, mass-produced hypersonic weapon, integrating it with the USAF’s workhorse F-16 is a very different proposition from pairing the far more expensive ARRW or HACM missiles with the F-15EX, F-35, and F-22.
Procurement plans for fiscal years 2028–2031 call for acquiring more than 4,000 Blackbeard missiles.
Meanwhile, earlier this month, the USAF submitted its 2035 force structure plan to Congress, noting that the F-16 will remain an important component of the USAF over the next decade.
F-16’s Role in the USAF During the Next Decade
Under the plan, the USAF will field 1,509 manned, combat-coded fighter aircraft by 2035, roughly 60 percent of which will be stealth platforms. The 60% stealth force will include 40% F-35As and 20% F-22 Raptors and F-47s. The remaining 40% of the fleet will be split evenly between the F-15EX and F-16 jets.
This means that by 2035, the USAF could still maintain nearly 300 F-16 fighters. The actual number of F-16 aircraft would be even higher if you also count the trainers and test aircraft.
The report, titled “Long-Term USAF Fighter Force Structure,” also mentions that the USAF is open to acquiring an entirely new fighter to reach its goal of 1,509 fighters by 2035.
“Accordingly, the USAF is also evaluating additional recapitalization options, including a new capacity fighter, increased reliance on CCAs, and developing air-to-air capabilities on bombers,” the report said.
As EurAsian Times reported last week, the new fighter could be Lockheed Martin’s upgraded F-16, termed F-16G.
Commenting on the USAF force-structure plan, Lt. Gen. David Tabor, deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, said the USAF is considering the F-16G variant but doesn’t have to decide “immediately.”
“We’re not in a position where that decision has to be made immediately.”
He said the decision likely won’t be made in the 2028 budgeting process, but perhaps in the years that follow. “There is a spectrum of capability that we might want to replace the F-16s with,” he said.
“It’s not urgent, frankly. What we don’t want to get to is a point where it is urgent, and we haven’t done the homework and decided ‘hey, this is really the right place to be.’ We do have time to churn through that and make sure that we have a good option going forward.”
One advantage to buying more F-16s is that “it’s practically a ready-made aircraft,” Tabor said.
The U.S. already has an established F-16 production line in Greenville, South Carolina. So, ordering new F-16s wouldn’t require establishing a new production line or reviving a dormant one.
The EurAsian Times has previously reported that the USAF has been considering procuring the F-16G variant for nearly a year; however, no decision has been made yet, and as Tabor clarified in his media briefing on October 20, the decision is not urgent and can wait until 2028.
Lockheed Martin is also exporting the Block 70/72 variant to foreign customers and upgrading legacy F-16 fleets to the Viper standard. Taiwan, for instance, upgraded 139 of its existing F-16A/B Block 20 fighters to the F-16V standard and ordered 66 new F-16V fighters.
The F-16 has already received Northrop Grumman’s AN/APG-83 SABR AESA radar.
Lockheed Martin claims this upgraded radar, with electronic beam steering, high-resolution SAR mapping, improved jamming resistance, simultaneous air-to-air and air-to-ground modes, and the ability to track multiple targets at longer ranges, gives the F-16 fifth-generation radar capabilities.
New F-16 variants have also integrated the Lockheed Martin Sniper® Advanced Targeting Pod and the Legion-ES™ IRST system, which increase pilot situational awareness.
The newer F-16 variants are also certified for a very wide range of modern weapons, such as AIM-120D AMRAAM, AIM-9X, JASSM, JSOW, JDAM variants, and SDB, and use Link 16, which provides enhanced situational awareness and enables real-time command, control, and tactical data exchange among military aircraft, ships, and ground forces.
Overall, while the newer F-16 shares the same airframe, advanced sensors, computing, radar, and a new weapons package make it much more potent and lethal than the older F-16C/D variants. However, integrating an economical hypersonic missile on the F-16 could be a true game-changer, keeping the fighter relevant for years to come.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
