OPED by Imran Khurshid, PhD.
Saudi Arabia’s Afghanistan deal shows that Riyadh will pursue its interests independently of Pakistan. It could also weaken Pakistan’s traditional gatekeeping role in Afghanistan.
Recently, on September 7, Afghanistan’s Taliban-led administration signed a major agreement with Delta International, a Saudi energy firm, in Kabul.
The two sides finalized a 25-year, $200 million contract concerning oil and gas exploration in the western Kushk-Tirpul basin, covering parts of Herat and Badghis provinces.
The $200 million is only the initial investment, while the broader energy projects being discussed could eventually involve tens of billions of dollars, with estimates reaching up to $50–60 billion.
The agreement was signed by Hedayatullah Badri, the Taliban administration’s acting Minister of Mines and Petroleum, and Shaher Al-Taqi, CEO of Delta International Energy. Importantly, the pact was signed in the presence of former U.S. envoy to Afghanistan and key negotiator of the 2020 Doha Agreement with the Taliban, Zalmay Khalilzad.
Khalilzad told reporters that the deal is an “indication that Afghanistan is ready for business” and capable of attracting large-scale international investment.
Khalilzad’s involvement adds an extra layer of geopolitical weight to the deal. The pact may seem relatively small in financial terms, but it is far more noteworthy because of what it represents. It challenges Pakistan’s longstanding assumption that Afghanistan’s external economic and diplomatic engagement must pass through Islamabad.
Interestingly, Saudi Arabia had earlier announced plans to invest $20 billion in Pakistan, but that investment has largely failed to materialize, while Riyadh has now actually moved ahead with a concrete investment agreement in Afghanistan. This contrast is important because it shows that Saudi Arabia is willing to pursue its own economic interests in Afghanistan despite Pakistan’s hostility toward the Taliban-led administration.
Saudi Arabia Challenges Pakistan’s Efforts to Isolate Afghanistan
Importantly, recently, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye signed the Makkah Joint Defense Agreement—a collective security and defense pact under which an armed attack on one member is considered an attack on all.
Pakistan expected Saudi Arabia to align more closely with Pakistan’s interests in the region. But this did not happen, and Saudi Arabia’s refusal to align itself with Pakistan’s regional interests has reportedly sent shockwaves through the Pakistani military establishment.
Pakistan has actually been pursuing a hostile approach toward Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover of Kabul in August 2021 and has used every trick in the book to present it as a hub of terrorism on the global stage.
Pakistan had expected the Taliban to simply fall in line with the dictates of Rawalpindi, reflecting a deeply entrenched mindset in which Pakistan has historically viewed Afghanistan through the prism of a “fifth province.”
This hostility has not been limited to the Taliban administration itself but has also affected ordinary Afghans, including Afghan students and families living in Pakistan.
Pakistan recently ordered Afghan medical and dental students already enrolled in Pakistani institutions to return to Afghanistan, while also barring new admissions of Afghan students. The decision drew international criticism, with Amnesty International describing it as “patently discriminatory and arbitrary” and warning that its consequences would be particularly severe for female Afghan students.
Pakistan has also shut border crossings with Afghanistan, thereby worsening the situation for ordinary Afghans, particularly amid Pakistan’s continued deportation of hundreds of thousands of Afghans. The manner in which Afghan refugees have been treated during these deportations has also been deeply disturbing.
Afghans have been rounded up, detained, and forcibly pushed out of the country, with large numbers transported toward the border in trucks, while women and children have at times been left waiting for days in vehicles at border crossings. Many Afghans have also been forced to abandon their homes, businesses, and other properties, with reports documenting cases in which their properties and assets were seized, confiscated, or sold at a loss, leaving families without their homes and livelihoods.
The humanitarian situation has therefore become increasingly difficult, with more than two million Afghans expelled from Pakistan since 2023, including many who had spent decades in the country and considered it their home.
More importantly, relations between the two countries have deteriorated sharply recently as clashes have intensified, particularly after Pakistan carried out repeated airstrikes inside Afghanistan, killing many innocent people, including women and children. Pakistan accuses the Taliban of harboring elements of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), who carry out attacks inside Pakistan, a claim the Taliban rejects.
Given this situation and the growing hostility between the two countries, Pakistan has been seeking to isolate Afghanistan internationally. But that strategy does not appear to be working.
By contrast, Saudi Arabia’s decision to pursue this deal sends a clear message that Riyadh intends to maintain an independent approach to regional engagement and will not let its ties with Pakistan dictate its economic and strategic interests. More importantly, the deal signals that Afghanistan is increasingly capable of developing direct economic and diplomatic engagement with other countries despite Pakistan’s efforts to isolate it.
It also suggests Pakistan may not get full Saudi support against India in any future conflict between the two countries, despite the pact.
If Saudi Arabia can pursue an independent approach to its engagement with Afghanistan, a country that is not necessarily as important to Riyadh as India, it also makes clear that India, which is far more important to Saudi Arabia economically and strategically, is not a relationship Riyadh is likely to sacrifice for Pakistan.
Previously, Pakistan had developed a mindset that if any country wanted to engage with Afghanistan, it had to do so through Pakistan. This framework developed during the Cold War, particularly during the Soviet–Afghan War, when Pakistan became a key intermediary between the United States and Afghan groups, and was further reinforced during the War on Terror after 9/11, when Pakistan again positioned itself as an important U.S. partner in Afghanistan, particularly given its considerable influence over the Taliban.
However, times have changed, and the situation in the region has also changed considerably. Pakistan has still not fully shed this Cold War-era mindset. It continues to behave as though Afghanistan is not an independent and sovereign country, but rather a strategic space in which Pakistan should have a gatekeeping role. Afghanistan, however, is a sovereign state and has every right to choose its own partners, establish its own relationships, and pursue its own political, economic, and strategic interests without seeking Pakistan’s approval.
Saudi Arabia is now taking an independent approach, which could reduce Pakistan’s significance in this regional equation.
Beyond Pakistan’s Regional Gatekeeping
Importantly, Khalilzad’s presence in helping drive this agreement also suggests the United States may now be looking to engage directly with Afghanistan. Khalilzad has recently called for greater U.S. engagement with Afghanistan, saying it would serve U.S. interests.
Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir has been trying to convince Washington that Pakistan can serve U.S. interests in the region, helping the US regain access to Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan.
There is, however, a growing realization in the United States that Pakistan’s increasingly hardened approach toward the Taliban may not necessarily serve U.S. interests and could instead further destabilize the region.
The United States may therefore now be looking to engage with Afghanistan independently.
The Taliban also recently indicated this. Its Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, said Afghanistan would “absolutely” welcome U.S. investment in mining, infrastructure, agriculture, and trade.
He also said that “relations between Afghanistan and the United States should not be assessed through the lens of the past 20 years of war, but rather on the basis of future co-operation.” This sends a positive message from Kabul and indicates that the Taliban is seeking greater direct engagement with the United States.
This is also in Afghanistan’s interests, as Kabul has consistently maintained that any country wanting to engage with Afghanistan should engage directly with the Taliban rather than follow the earlier framework in which Pakistan acted as an intermediary or gatekeeper.
Such developments could reduce Pakistan’s significance in the regional equation and could ultimately be beneficial for peace, stability, and regional stability. Given the way Pakistan has consistently pursued nefarious external designs to destabilize Afghanistan for its own objectives in the region, greater direct engagement between Afghanistan and other regional and global powers could weaken Pakistan’s ability to use Afghanistan as an instrument of its broader strategic calculations.
- Dr. Imran Khurshid is an Associate Research Fellow at the International Center for Peace Studies (ICPS), New Delhi. He specializes in India-US relations, Indo-Pacific studies, and South Asian security issues.
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