Top American and Iranian officials will meet in Switzerland on Friday to formally sign a deal to end the war in the Middle East. The signing is scheduled at the Burgenstock resort near Lucerne, Switzerland.
Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, will attend, while the US will be represented by Vice President JD Vance, with President Trump possibly joining.
Speaking at the G7 summit alongside Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Trump issued a blunt warning: “If they don’t behave, we’ll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head.”
The fragile ceasefire comes after a 39-day conflict in which the US established clear superiority in short, high-intensity strikes. Yet the pause also highlighted a key limitation: America’s advanced weapons are extremely effective — but hard to sustain in a long war without deep stockpiles and rapid replenishment.
Quality still matters, but quantity and the ability to replace losses count too.
Stockpile Concerns Grow
Democratic Senator Mark Kelly, a retired Navy captain and former astronaut, has publicly raised alarms about depleted stockpiles. In recent interviews, he said it could take “years” to rebuild inventories of Tomahawks, Patriots, THAAD interceptors, and other key munitions after the Iran campaign.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth responded sharply, accusing Kelly of leaking sensitive information and launching a review of his comments.
Earlier EurAsian Times reporting noted that depletion of munitions was likely one reason for the pause in operations. A recent CSIS report by Mark F. Cancian and Chris H. Park confirms the scale of the drawdown.
What the CSIS Report Shows
Before Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026, the U.S. held roughly:
- 3,100 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAMs) — Over 1,000 were fired (about one-third of the stock). Annual production has been under 200 in recent years. Even with efforts to reach over 1,000 per year, full recovery to pre-war levels is not expected until late 2030.
- 400 THAAD interceptors — 190–290 used. Production is currently around 96 per year but aims for 400. The replacement should be finished by the end of 2029.
- 2,500 Patriot interceptors — 1,060–1,430 fired. Current production is about 650 per year (split with allies). Large new orders in the FY2027 budget point to deliveries starting in 2029.
- SM-3 and SM-6 missiles — Heavy use (250+ SM-3s out of ~400; 190–370 SM-6s). These will take about two years to rebuild to pre-war levels.
- JASSM cruise missiles — Over 1,100 used out of more than 4,000. This is less concerning because production was already running at higher rates.
- PrSM (Precision Strike Missile) — A newer system with fewer than 100 before the war. 40–70 used. Production is scaling up but remains limited.
The report notes that prior drawdowns (Red Sea operations against Houthis, support for Ukraine, and Israel) made the situation worse. Giving Patriots to Ukraine also reduced U.S. reserves.
Industrial Base Challenges
Replenishing these stocks is proving difficult due to supply chain problems, shortages of critical components and minerals, and past low orders. Even with framework agreements and Trump’s push for higher output, “capacity does not equal actual production,” CSIS warned.
This shortfall has hurt U.S. credibility as an arms supplier to partners like Poland, Taiwan, and Gulf states. It also limits options if a new crisis erupts in the Indo-Pacific or Europe.
The administration’s proposed $1.5 trillion FY2027 defense budget includes large new orders for munitions and aims to expand production capacity over the next five to seven years. The framework addresses the industry and is designed to accelerate progress.
Still, experts say real results will take time. Until inventories recover, any U.S. president — Trump included — will likely think twice before committing to another long, high-intensity war.
Still, experts say real results will take time. Even with ambitious targets and new funding, restocking depleted munitions will be a slow and complex process.
In any potential conflict involving China or another major conflict in Europe, Washington could find itself playing relatively safe to preserve crucial precision munitions or limit operations to avoid running critically low on vital missile stocks.
The Iran war served as a wake-up call for Washington and the world. While the U.S. demonstrated overwhelming superiority in short, decisive strikes, the 39-day conflict exposed the fragility of relying heavily on expensive, low-volume weapons without sufficient depth.
Trump’s proposed $1.5 trillion FY2027 defense budget and framework agreements with industry represent important steps toward fixing the problem. However, as the CSIS report repeatedly cautions, announced capacity does not translate into actual missiles delivered on time.
At the same time, the US suffered some serious losses during Op Epic Fury, losing 42 aircraft and cutting-edge radars in the conflict. It probably was much more than Trump had anticipated.
By ET Online Desk
