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What If Iran Refuses to Give Up Its 440 Kg Enriched Uranium? JD Vance’s Postponed Switzerland Trip Raises Serious Questions

US Vice President JD Vance will not travel to Switzerland to discuss next steps regarding the US-Iran peace agreement as previously anticipated, according to the White House. 

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said on Thursday that he had endorsed the peace pact despite reservations, even as Washington lifted a blockade of Iranian ports.

The signing of the deal by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian set in motion a 60-day period for talks on wider issues between the two foes, including the Iranian nuclear program. But there was uncertainty about the next steps, and it appeared unlikely that the two sides would hold a signing ceremony and talks in Switzerland on Friday as previously announced.

“The logistics of these negotiations have never been simple or predictable. As of now, the Vice President is not departing tonight,” a White House spokesperson confirmed.

“We look forward to beginning technical talks as soon as possible.” In Iran, the Tasnim agency said “nothing has been confirmed” about the Iranian delegation’s trip to Switzerland. Mojtaba Khamenei, who became the supreme leader after his father and longtime Iranian ruler Ali Khamenei was killed in an airstrike on the first day of the war on February 28, said in a written statement that he had approved the deal despite having a “different view”, without elaborating.

“But I issued my permission due to the commitment” made by officials, including Pezheshkian, to “protect the rights of the Iranian nation”. “Face-to-face negotiations” with the US will be held in the future, but that does not “mean accepting the enemy’s point of view”, he added. On Friday, Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned against any breach of the agreement on X:

“In case of misconduct, breach of treaty, and excess of the other side, we have no doubt that a decisive response will be given to the enemy.”

The Trump administration enters the 60-day window for wider nuclear negotiations with Iran in a surprisingly vulnerable position. Tehran still holds a powerful leverage point: its nearly 440 kg of enriched uranium.

If Iran refuses to fully relinquish, dilute, or dismantle this material, Washington faces limited realistic options, other than going to war again, which Trump is keen to avoid.

The deal signed this week has already delivered significant immediate concessions to Iran. The US lifted its naval blockade of Iranian ports, waived key oil sanctions, and pledged to facilitate a $300 billion regional reconstruction fund upon reaching a final nuclear understanding. Yet the core nuclear issues remain unresolved.

Operation Epic Fury was not really a smooth operation for the US Military. Official figures report approximately 15 US soldiers killed and nearly 600 military personnel wounded. The US lost at least 42 military aircraft in the campaign, including F-15E Strike Eagle and the first-ever reported strike on an F-35 stealth fighter.

The war also severely exhausted critical US stockpiles, including Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles. Over 1,000 Tomahawks were fired — roughly 10 times the annual production rates and a significant portion of the pre-war inventory. Replenishment could take time until late 2030.

More than 1,200 Patriot Interceptors were expended, with production at only ~600 per year pre-war. Nearly 40-50% of THAAD Interceptors inventory used in the first weeks alone, with full replenishment projected at 3+ years. There were reports of significant depletion of ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles during high-intensity operations.

WASHINGTON, DC – MAY 12: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in front of the American flag to the press as he departs the White House on May 12, 2026, in Washington, DC. Trump is traveling to China, where he is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping for expected talks on the Iran conflict, trade imbalances, regional security, and economic cooperation between the two countries. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Kevin Dietsch / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Analysts at CSIS and others note that rebuilding these stocks will take up to 4 years for basic replenishment, with years more to reach desired levels for potential near-peer threats like China. The Pentagon has requested emergency funding (up to $80 billion) and invoked authorities to accelerate production, but the window of vulnerability is real.

Renewed strikes on Iranian nuclear sites risk Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz and counterstrikes by Tehran, which could seriously endanger American allies in the Middle East due to plunging stocks of interceptor missiles.

Trump’s own statements reveal the administration’s urgency. In comments to Axios, he acknowledged: “The only way I can get tougher is if I go in there for another two or three weeks and continue to bomb the hell out of ‘em. But what does that get us? The Strait of Hormuz will not be open. We wouldn’t have oil for months.”

Vice President J.D. Vance’s postponed trip to Switzerland highlights serious complications. Iranian leadership, under Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei and negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has projected resilience. The enriched uranium stockpile is viewed as a national insurance policy.

If Tehran holds firm, US alternatives might be limited: reimposing sanctions could collapse the ceasefire, while military action carries prohibitive economic and strategic risks given depleted ammunition stocks.

Trump’s desire for a historic peace deal — ending direct US involvement in the war in the Middle East — is clear. However, this haste may embolden Iran to retain its nuclear capabilities.

US Senator Bill Cassidy from Trump’s Republican Party described it as the “worst foreign policy blunder in decades”. But Trump argued that using military force to wring more concessions out of Tehran would have been counterproductive.

By ET Online Desk with AFP Inputs