Is something cooking in the Baltics as NATO has gone into overdrive to prepare for a possible Russian invasion?
Last week, NATO forces conducted the ‘Baltic Trust 2026′ exercise in Latvia, in which 650 participants from 24 countries tested how multinational forces can adapt, connect and respond to increasingly complex unmanned aerial system threats.
It hosted LCI-X Crucible 3-26, the latest stage of NATO Allied Command Transformation’s progressive counter-UAS experimentation campaign, and examined how multiple UAS and counter-UAS cells can operate as part of a distributed structure – sharing information, contributing to a common operational picture, and coordinating responses as threats move across units and operational areas.
Then, just three days later, on August 18, NATO conducted large-scale air exercises near Russia’s Kaliningrad region from Poland and the Baltic states, the Alliance’s press service reported.
About 25 aircraft from various NATO member states took part in the flights on August 18.
Among the aircraft, the AirNav Radar service detected U.S. C-40A Clippers (AE04D8, CNV6617), EA-37B Compass Call IIs (AE1436, SHOCK55), and a Bombardier Challenger 650 (AE0C98, BRIO66), an E-3A Sentry airborne early warning and control aircraft (AE3ECB, NATO02), Polish Gulfstream G550s (48D980, PLF110, and 48D960, PLF105), Airbus A330 MRTT refueling aircraft from the MMF (480C42, AE04C4, 480C48, and AE04FD, MMF16), a Lithuanian Let L-410UVP (503FD9, LYF468), as well as American AH-64E Apache Guardian attack helicopters (AE74D9 and AEB3B5, COVET10).
In addition, separate activity was recorded in the Skagerrak Strait between Norway and Denmark.
There, a British P-8A Poseidon patrol aircraft (RFR 7048), along with a German aircraft (GNY4511), flew over a specific area for several hours, Militarnyi reported.
Some interesting intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) activity just wrapped up around Kaliningrad, Russia.
A NATO E-3 Airborne Early Warning and Control (AWACS) aircraft was operating nearby while a U.S. Air Force EA-37B "Compass Call II" electronic warfare… pic.twitter.com/08C5tCAxhk
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) August 18, 2026
In a statement, NATO said that the Alliance is constantly improving its defensive capabilities.
“NATO is a defensive Alliance, and Allies are constantly honing their defensive abilities. The Allied activity today on 18 Aug 26 in the Baltic region involving U.S. and Norwegian fighter aircraft, Polish ground forces, a NATO E-3A Airborne Warning & Control System (AWACS) and more, which is being overseen by the U.S., is one example of this approach.”
NATO further said that it cannot disclose further details for operational security reasons.
Military expert Carlo Masala from the Bundeswehr University in Munich commented on the incident on X, saying: “Today there was a considerable concentration of air forces around Kaliningrad. One can only hope that Russia has understood the message.”
Simultaneously, on August 17, German newspaper Bild reported that NATO is preparing for a potential Russian attack in the Baltic states with a new land warfare concept.
“NATO has developed a concept for conducting ground combat operations in the event of Russian aggression against Alliance countries,” it said.
According to the report, NATO has developed a three-pronged strategy to counter any Russian misadventure in the Baltics.
NATO’s Three-Pronged Strategy to Counter Russian Invasion of Baltics
According to the report, the NATO document was drafted under the direction of Major Andrew Pingray of the United States Armed Forces.
The Alliance’s primary objectives in such a scenario are to halt the Russian offensive and significantly weaken the Russian Federation’s military capabilities.
According to the scenario, in the event of an attack on the Baltic states, Russia may first use missiles and drones, and then launch a ground offensive involving armored vehicles.
In such a scenario, NATO will first and foremost try to neutralize the missile threat by intercepting the incoming missiles. To this end, it may use fighter jets, missiles, and unmanned systems capable of striking Russian systems.
This will be followed by a massive strike campaign against military infrastructure, particularly Kaliningrad, whilst also targeting Russian launch points close to the borders of the Baltics.
Notably, Russia has concentrated a significant number of missile and air defense systems in its Kaliningrad exclave.
After a missile and drone attack, if Russia also uses armored vehicles for a ground invasion of any Baltic state, then NATO would also shift to stage B of its plan.
This stage would involve establishing a so-called “autonomous zone” along the borders with Russia and Belarus. The plan is to use it as a kind of barrier between Russian troops and NATO forces.
Establishing a buffer zone would slow the pace of Russian advance.
According to the plan, drones and robotic military transport systems will play the main role in this zone to minimize casualties among NATO forces.
In fact, the plan envisions deploying minimal human forces in this buffer zone.
This drone zone would be akin to the ‘kill zone’ in the Ukraine War. In the Ukraine War, there is a 30-kilometer-wide “kill zone” along the battlefield where surveillance and attack drones swarm the skies, hunting anything that moves.
In this ‘kill zone,’ there’s no more massing of troops and artillery. Instead, soldiers on both sides hide for months at a time in tiny, isolated foxholes to survive.
In the event of a conflict, the Alliance is also considering striking military targets on Russian territory. This refers to infrastructure that supports the Russian military. Potential targets could include airfields, military-industrial facilities, bridges, and rail hubs used to transport troops and equipment.
Once the pace of the Russian ground invasion is halted, NATO might respond with a counterattack with armored brigades.
In the third and final stage, NATO would form an airbridge and begin to target Russian military infrastructure at long range with missiles and drones deep into the country.
The plan also mentions coordinating with forces inside Russia who are opposed to the dictatorship of President Vladimir Putin.
However, NATO emphasized that the goal is not to occupy Russia. The plan calls for halting the Russian offensive, pushing back Russian forces to its national border, and degrading the Russian military’s war-waging capabilities.
NATO also said that making such plans public is a way to achieve deterrence, as Moscow would know that any military misadventure in the Baltic region would entail huge costs for its military.
Many analysts are wondering whether Putin would dare to attack the Baltic region and open a new front with NATO when he is already tied down in the Ukraine War.
However, Western intelligence is repeatedly warning that Putin is seriously considering this option.
Why Putin Might Attack the Baltic Countries
Two weeks ago, the Lithuanian government warned that military intelligence had information indicating that Russia might be considering attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic states using Ukrainian drones.
According to a report by the online portal ” 15min.lt “, Russia could use intercepted Ukrainian drones to conceal the origin of a potential attack on NATO territory and to deny it. “We are talking about a possible ‘false flag’ operation, in which a fake Ukrainian drone is used. This is probably the most realistic scenario currently being examined,” said Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas.
US intelligence also believes that Russia could test NATO’s resolve with a limited attack between this fall and 2029.
Intelligence reports suggest that Putin might launch a limited offensive, something below the threshold of a full-fledged military conflict, to test the resolve of NATO and divide the alliance.
This limited offensive could involve cyberattacks, the deployment of unmarked troops, or a limited incursion on the eastern flank.
Meanwhile, on August 17, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs said that Russia’s hybrid war against Western countries is already underway.
A limited incursion or hybrid war can divide the NATO alliance, as some countries might feel it does not merit a full military response, whereas others, particularly the Baltic states and Eastern European countries, might see it as an existential threat.
Additionally, this might force NATO countries to withdraw their support for Ukraine and prioritize the Alliance’s Eastern flank.
However, NATO’s military drills in the Baltic, the unannounced drills by US, British, and Norwegian jets, and the public release of its contingency plan could act as a strong deterrent to Moscow.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
