Just about 10 km from President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, a Learjet 60 N722BD business jet crashed in Palm Beach County, Florida, on November 1, killing all nine people aboard.
A dashcam video shows the jet descending almost vertically. Moments later, the Learjet 60 crashes into the ground like a missile striking a target. On impact, the aircraft erupted in a fireball, creating a crater on the ground.
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) figures show the aircraft descended from 35,250 feet to 8,750 feet in just over a minute, dropping nearly 350 feet per second.
“We’re descending 8,000 — mayday, mayday — we’re descending 10,000 feet per minute. We are in an overspeed condition, descending 20,000 feet per minute,” the pilot said. “We’re going to crash into the ground,” said the pilot on board the Learjet 60.
The Learjet 60 N722BD was traveling from Austin-Bergstrom International Airport in Texas to the North Eleuthera Airport in the Bahamas when it fell near the Greenacres mobile home community.
However, even as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) are investigating the incident, social media was abuzz with claims that the business jet might have been shot down by air defense systems deployed by the US military around Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.
Conspiracy theorists suggest that a shoot-down by air defense systems, or even an air-to-air strike by a US Air Force F-16, was quite possible, as the aircraft was in very close proximity to Trump’s residence. Leading publications like India’s Economic Times and the UK-based International Business Times covered the “shootdown” story.
The timing and location of the incident fueled the conspiracy theories.
In late October, NORAD confirmed that it had deployed ground-based AN/TWQ-1 Avenger short-range air defense systems around Mar-a-Lago at the Secret Service’s request amid a heightened threat environment. Avenger air defense systems can fire Stinger missiles, which can engage low-flying aircraft and drones.
Interestingly, Trump was also present at the Mar-a-Lago resort on November 1 morning, when the Learjet 60 aircraft crashed.
Furthermore, while no USAF F-16 jets were scrambled on November 1, the Secret Service did scramble and deploy fighters to respond to a security situation at Mar-a-Lago last month.
On October 24, a civilian aircraft that strayed into the restricted airspace around Mar-a-Lago prompted the scrambling of an F-16. According to NORAD, the F-16 pilot used a standard “headbutt” maneuver to get the pilot’s attention.
During this maneuver, the F-16 pilot placed his jet just ahead of the civilian aircraft. The civilian pilot then established radio contact and safely exited the restricted area, following instructions.
Notably, this was neither the first airspace violation near Mar-a-Lago nor the first interception.
In fact, NORAD has reported intercepting more than 60 aircraft near the estate since Trump returned to office in January 2025.
Repeated airspace violations near Mar-a-Lago, frequent NORAD F-16 intercepts, the late-October deployment of Avenger short-range air defense systems amid a heightened threat environment, and President Trump’s presence at the resort earlier on November 1might have fueled online conspiracy theories.
Why the Avenger Shoot-Down Theory Does Not Hold Up?
Perhaps the most clinching evidence against a missile interception is the last call made by the Learjet’s pilot.
Air traffic control audio revealed the panicked final moments of the female pilot of the business jet as it plummeted to Earth.
Based on multiple reports, here is a reconstructed version of the last conversation between the pilot and ATC:
Pilot: “We have light, clear ice that is manageable and moderate turbulence.“
Pilot: “722 Bravo Delta, we’re descending 8,000. Mayday, Mayday. We’re descending 10,000 feet per minute.“
ATC: “November 722 Bravo Delta, roger.“
Pilot: “Declaring emergency, 722 Bravo Delta. We are in an overspeed condition. Descending 20,000 feet per minute.“
ATC: “November 722 Bravo Delta, roger. Let me know what you need.“
Pilot: “We’re going to crash into the ground, 722 Bravo Delta.“
ATC: “November two Bravo Delta, I’m here with you. Talk to me.“
Pilot: “We are descending 22,000 feet, and we are banking 60 degrees.“
Pilot: “Look outside… Holy f**k, we’re out of time!“
This last conversation records the final moments from the cockpit.
The pilot mentions “light ice, but manageable” and “moderate turbulence“.
If the aircraft had been hit by a missile, the pilot probably would have said, “We’ve been hit.”
In some cases, pilots report explosions or bird strikes rather than immediately identifying a missile hit.
For instance, the pilot of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, which was damaged by a Russian air-defense missile near Grozny in December 2024, reported a “bird strike” followed by a loss of control.
Furthermore, in the Learjet’s dashcam video, the aircraft appears fully intact until impact. Had it been struck by a missile or caught in a nearby missile explosion, visible shrapnel damage would typically have been present on the airframe.
Such shrapnel marks were clearly visible around the fuselage of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243.
Some observers have noted that the horizontal stabilizers in the tail section are not clearly visible.
However, this is not established yet, and even if they were missing, the horizontal stabilizers could have separated in flight due to structural overload from extreme overspeed, severe icing, or turbulence.
A missile interception also cannot explain the Learjet’s unusually steep descent angle.
Additionally, the Avenger air-defense system’s short range further undermines the missile shoot-down hypothesis.
These missiles can generally shoot down aircraft flying between 10,000 and 12,500 feet within a few miles. According to Global Security, the Stinger missile’s effective range is around 5 kilometers, and its maximum range is 8 kilometers.
The crashed Learjet, however, was flying at over 35,000 feet and crashed more than 10 miles from Mar-a-Lago, making a Stinger engagement inconsistent with the profile.
Many former pilots also pointed out that the circumstances are incompatible with a missile interception hypothesis and pointed to turbulence and icing as possible causes of the crash.
Matthew ‘Whiz’ Buckley, a TOPGUN Adversary fighter pilot and MAX Afterburner show host, posted a video on X debunking the missile-interception theory and suggesting the aircraft probably crashed because of bad weather.
He blamed “turbulence, icing, and bad storms” for the crash.
Former Indian Army Major Madhan Kumar (Retd) also blamed the extreme weather for the crash. “Cruising at 35,000 feet, the pilots reported moderate turbulence, clear icing, and heavy precipitation before requesting a climb. Moments later, the aircraft lost control, entering a steep overspeed dive exceeding 30,000 feet per minute into a severe thunderstorm cell,” he wrote on X.
“Mar-a-Lago’s deployed AN/TWQ-1 Avenger VSHORAD units utilize Stinger missiles, capped at an effective altitude ceiling of roughly 10,000 to 12,000 feet—far below the jet’s 35,000-foot cruising altitude,” Major Kumar pointed out.
The Learjet, most likely, entered a dense storm cell with heavy precipitation and intense atmospheric activity.
The pilot requested ATC permission to climb to 37,000 feet to reach smoother air. However, shortly after, the aircraft began descending at 10,000 to 22,000 feet per minute and soon crashed to the ground.
The missile-interception hypothesis makes for an interesting conspiracy theory. However, the circumstances of the crash, the pilot’s Mayday call, and the limited range of the Avenger systems leave no credible basis for entertaining such a theory.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from The University of Sheffield, UK.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
