After expending billions of dollars worth of weapons in the Iran war and severely depleting its stockpiles, the United States now finds itself in a tough spot vis-à-vis exporting arms to the frontline states in the Indo-Pacific region.
The US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, has reportedly told his Japanese counterpart, Shinjiro Koizumi, of delays in the delivery of Tomahawk missiles to Japan. This comes after the Japanese Defense Minister announced that deliveries of Tomahawk missiles to the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) would begin in March 2026.
According to the previously agreed schedule between the two sides, Japan was expected to secure the delivery of the missiles by fiscal 2027. However, the delivery could now be delayed by up to two years, according to the FT report.
The Japanese government announced in January 2024 that it would purchase 400 Tomahawk missiles to strengthen its long-range strike capabilities against China, which has been rapidly increasing its military presence in the East China Sea and pushing Tokyo’s limits. The purchase agreement included about 200 Block IV Tomahawks, 200 Block V Tomahawks, 14 Tactical Tomahawk Weapon Control Systems, along with support, training, maintenance, and spares.
Japan plans to equip all eight of Japan’s Aegis destroyers, including two Kongo-class, two Atago-class, two Maya-class, and two additional destroyers, with Tomahawk missiles. In fact, the admission of potential delays comes weeks after the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force’s Kongo-class destroyer JS Chokai completed upgrades that would allow it to launch the long-range missile, with live firing expected sometime later this year.
The EurAsian Times has reached out to the Japanese MoD and the White House to gather more information about the delays.
Notably, the US has spent more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles in the conflict with Iran, according to the data compiled by the US-based think tank, the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). This is about 30% of all Tomahawks the Pentagon had in its inventory before the war began (about 3,100) and constitutes the largest expenditure of these long-range missiles to date.
Tomahawks were part of the opening salvo in strikes on Iran to degrade a nationwide multilayered air defense network, an objective that could only have been achieved through massed precision strikes, as previously explained in detail by the EurAsian Times. Subsequently, the Tomahawks were used to destroy ballistic missile launchers and production sites, hit command-and-control centers, and neutralize naval facilities.
While the use of Tomahawks made sense during hostilities, the Pentagon now faces a grim reality: the rate of Tomahawk expenditure has exceeded the rate of its production.
According to reports, only 2,330 Tomahawk missiles are currently produced each year at the maximum rate. While BAE has a contract to build up to 530 missiles annually, Raytheon has three contracts, each covering 600 missiles.
It is pertinent to note that the Pentagon recently signed a framework agreement with Raytheon to scale up to 1,000 missiles per year for the US over several years, but that is expected to take some time to come to fruition.
Japan’s purchase of the Tomahawks, which have a range of over 1,600 kilometers, was meant to deter China in the region all along. This means the delay will slow down Tokyo’s plans for counterstrike capabilities aimed at China.
Japan views China as its “greatest strategic challenge” due to its aggressive actions in the Senkaku Islands, which are claimed by both China and Taiwan, and the massive expansion of the Chinese navy and missile program. Furthermore, the Japanese leadership is concerned that the PLA’s invasion of Taiwan could drag the nation into a China-Taiwan conflict due to its proximity to Taiwan, claimed by Beijing as its sovereign territory.
It was believed that if Tokyo were somehow dragged into a Taiwan contingency, JS Chokai and other warships equipped with Tomahawks could target PLA Rocket Force bases, airfields, naval ports, command centers, or amphibious invasion staging areas, disrupting a cross-strait operation at its most vulnerable early stages.
At the same time, experts have warned that the expenditure of lethal munitions like Tomahawk significantly degrades US combat capability in the short-to-medium term, primarily by eroding “magazine depth,” which is the ability to sustain precision strikes and forcing trade-offs in high-intensity conflicts such as one against China in the West Pacific.
Moreover, if the hostilities resume again, as repeatedly hinted by US President Donald Trump, the total expenditure of Tomahawks will probably mount further, leading to further delays in the deliveries of the missiles to countries like Japan. The US would restock its own inventory upon receiving new missiles, rather than passing them on to allies.
Having said that, Japan is not the only one facing delays.
Taiwan Is Not Getting US Arms Anytime Soon
The United States appears to have officially paused a multi-billion-dollar arms shipment to Taiwan owing to two major factors: the Iran War and a supposed detente with China.
Earlier this week, the acting US Navy secretary, Hung Cao, said that the arms supplies to Taiwan were being withheld to ensure that the United States has enough for an Iran War.“Right now, we’re taking a pause in order to make sure we have the munitions we need for ‘Epic Fury,’” Cao told the US Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee. “Then the foreign military sales will continue when the administration deems necessary.”
Notably, the White House was expected to approve an arms package worth $14 billion, which has already received the nod of the American lawmakers.
Hung Cao’s remarks come as the precarious ceasefire that ended the war between the two sides is threatened by the lack of a mutually agreeable deal, and Trump has signaled that the US military is locked and loaded for a second round of hostilities in Iran.
Interestingly, Trump had earlier indicated that he was dilly-dallying on approving arms for the self-ruled Taiwanese island amid a reconciliation with China.
“I’m not looking to have somebody go independent. And, you know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I’m not looking for that. I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down,” he had told Fox News in an interview.
The President gave an ambiguous signal when asked about the arms package for Taiwan. “I haven’t approved it yet. We’re going to see what happens,” Trump said, referring to the expected arms package. “I may do it, I may not do it. I’m holding that in abeyance, and it depends on China. It’s a very good negotiating chip for us, frankly. It’s a lot of weapons.”
In a recent report, the Washington Times, citing sources, claims that Chinese officials privately told the US side during the summit that they would prefer that packages be delayed and scaled back.
The delays could further push Taiwan to the wall as it already has a backlog in US supplies totalling over $29.7 billion, even as China’s coercion and military aggression continue unabated. The backlog reportedly includes Patriot PAC-3 MSE missile interceptors, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers, and ammunition, all of which have been used a bit too much in the conflict with Iran.
The US has spent about 1,060 to 1,430 Patriot interceptors in the Iran war, out of a total of 2,330, according to CSIS. The pause in arms supplies, including Patriots, would create a gap in Taiwan’s layered air defenses, at least in the short term.
Responding to the reports, Michael McFaul, a Professor of Political Science at Stanford University, and a former US ambassador to Russia between 2012 and 2014, said, “Trump continues to disrupt longstanding American foreign policies that are disruptive and destabilizing. Avoiding war over Taiwan is a paramount US national interest. Maintaining deterrence helps to keep the peace.”
The US decision to withhold crucial supplies to frontline Indo-Pacific states like Japan and Taiwan has been lamented by analysts who believe the US may have prioritized its goals in West Asia while overlooking the need to maintain combat readiness in the volatile region, where it faces a strategic challenge from Beijing.
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