A defense pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan could totally reshape the Middle East. Analysts believe that it could deter Iran, offset an unpredictable United States, and send a strong message to Israel.
This alliance binds three Sunni nations that are strategic allies of the United States with a NATO-style clause that considers any attack on one country as an attack on all.
Analysts doubt this provision will be enforced, as the trio seeks resolutions to the war, with Pakistan and Turkey acting as intermediaries.
Oil-rich Saudi Arabia has positioned itself at the center of this new alliance, signed in Islam’s holiest city, Mecca, but what does this agreement mean in practical terms?
Nearly six months into the Iran war, the US has failed to knock out Iran, while Tehran continues to choke off traffic in and around the Strait of Hormuz and its Houthi allies disrupt shipping in the Red Sea.
This reality has upended the region’s security architecture — forcing a rethink of decades of conventional wisdom rooted in US military supremacy.
Despite the archipelago of US bases across the region, American forces have struggled to intercept all of the drones and ballistic missiles fired by Iran and its proxies.
The new alliance shows “American deterrence has been significantly weakened and that the Iranian threat will increasingly need to be managed by regional powers,” wrote Ali Shihabi, a political analyst close to the Saudi government.
Since the onset of the war, Saudi Arabia has grown closer to Turkey, with whom it previously had fraught ties, as well as Egypt and Pakistan. The four nations have supported mediation in the conflict.
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have a history of security ties and had already signed a similar agreement last year.
This Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan defense pact is less about creating a new NATO-style alliance and more about an insurance policy. Riyadh is using its financial muscle to buy military assurance from Ankara and Islamabad. The mutual defense agreement is largely symbolic — neither Turkey nor Pakistan is likely to go to war with Iran on Saudi Arabia’s behalf — but the real message is clear: the Gulf can no longer rely solely on Washington and is determined to shape its own regional security architecture.
Andreas Krieg, lecturer at King’s College London, says: “The three countries are unusually complementary. Oil-rich Saudi Arabia has wealth but limited indigenous military-industrial depth… Turkey has technology and manufacturing capacity but needs markets and investment. Pakistan has manpower, military institutional depth and nuclear deterrence but needs financing and industrial opportunities.” “It is in Saudi Arabia’s interest to seek several layers of security rather than one American umbrella.”
Asfandyar Mir, Senior Fellow, Stimson Center, says: “What matters is three militarily capable states, in crucial geographies, with diverse relationships, are committing to one another’s defense. It is not intended to replace the United States. But it certainly reflects a judgment that U.S. commitment alone is no longer sufficient to ensure security and maintain stability.”
Will Turkey and Pakistan attack Iran?
Pakistan has not done much for Saudi Arabia despite coming under attack from Iran and the Houthi militia.
“Turkey and Pakistan will not fight Iran. These countries view themselves as ‘stabilizers’ and want to create a political momentum to push for that,” wrote Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at Brookings Institution.
HA Hellyer, geopolitical analyst, says even if it is unlikely for Pakistan and Turkey to hit Iran in retaliation for strikes on Saudi Arabia, “this pact sends a politically symbolic signal to Iran and Israel”.
Saudi Arabia has grown closer to Pakistan and Turkey as deep divisions plague the Gulf, even as it reeled from repeated attacks from Iran and its allies.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE were embroiled in a public rift even before the war, and though they recently appeared to reconcile, the UAE is likely to be wary of the new pact, analysts say.
The United States has long sought to build on the Abraham Accords that saw the UAE, Bahrain and others normalize relations with Israel, pushing for a regional alliance that integrates its close ally. But the new defense pact consolidates major US allies into an alternative security architecture that rejects Israel’s hegemony, analysts said.
Pakistan and Turkey have been vocal against Israel, while Saudi Arabia has insisted it will not normalize unless Israel agrees to a path to Palestinian statehood.
“Washington would have wanted a security architecture that includes Israel, and they’re still keen for Saudi Arabia to normalize ties. This alliance doesn’t point to that in the slightest,” said Hellyer.
The alliance, he said, “shows a desire to interrupt both the project of Iranian hegemony and that of Israeli paramountcy”.
By Agence France-Presse and ET Online Desk
