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Why Al Qaeda’s Revival In Afghanistan Could Spell ‘Big Trouble’ For India In Kashmir?

India should stay vigilant as there are clear indications that the dreaded Al Qaeda is quietly recovering and making a comeback in Afghanistan. 

While the world seems focussed on the ongoing efforts at negotiating with the Taliban over its promised role in an “inclusive” and “stable” government in Kabul after the US troops withdraw from Afghanistan, all indications are now available that Al Qaeda is quietly recovering its lost ground and making a comeback.

Not getting the attention it deserves, this development has ominous implications for South Asia in general and the Kashmir region in particular.

The recent arrest of four students from Kargil by Delhi Police in connection with the low-intensity IED blast near the Israeli embassy in the Indian capital on January 19 has rekindled the fear in this regard.

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Al Qaeda’s Kashmir Link

That Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) — one of the five major affiliates of the Al Qaeda [other four being Jabhat al-Nusrah in Syria; Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen; Al Shabaab in Somalia; and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in North Africa] — has signaled its plans to focus on Kashmir is well-known in intelligence circles.

It may be noted that the announcement of the formation of the AQIS was made by Al-Qaeda leader Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri in September 2014. But the group was not that active, particularly after the establishment of the Islamic State (IS) by the renegade Al-Qaeda Iraqi militia head Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

The IS announced its expansion to the Khorasan region in 2015, which historically encompasses parts of modern-day Iran, Central Asia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan and parts of India, including Kashmir.




Al-Qaeda - Wikipedia
Al-Qaeda Flag – Wikipedia

This new country dreamt by al-Baghdadi was called the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), which subsequently declared to include Bangladesh, the Maldives and Sri Lanka as well.

It did attract many militant youths in Kashmir. But then with the killing of the al Baghdadi in 2019 and the subsequent decline of the IS, elements associated with the IS-K looked forward to the AQIS.

In any case, the book The Islamic State in Khorasan written by Antonio Giustozzi and published in 2018, has revealed that the IS-K was handled by the same ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) of Pakistan, which was equally friendly with the Al Qaeda, that despite the known rivalry between al-Zawahiri and al-Baghdadi, IS-K and Al Qaeda or for that matter AQIS had good ties and that there was a very thin wall of separation between them.

US Intelligence Report 

In their goal to establish an Islamic caliphate in the Indian subcontinent, many militants in Kashmir do support the broader goals of Al Qaeda’s central leadership. According to the US spy agency CIA, AQIS’s targets are military and security personnel, political parties, foreigners, foreign aid workers, university professors, students, and secular bloggers.

It uses small arms and improvised explosive devices (IEDs), as well as crude weapons such as machetes. It is believed to receive financial and material support from AQ senior leadership and also engages in kidnapping-for-ransom and extortion to raise funds. The terrorists’ activities in Kashmir display this pattern very well.

What may be ominous in this regard is the spurt of activities by Al Qaeda in the past few months, particularly since the US-brokered Doha declaration in February 2020 that lent legitimacy to the process of Taliban returning to power in Kabul. The declaration of the US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan has added further momentum to Al Qaeda’s revival.

In fact, Al Qaeda had welcomed the Doha deal, describing it as the “enemy acknowledging its defeat.”  Its propaganda machinery had gone to the extent of portraying the Doha deal as “a watershed in the history of jihad”.

What is equally important is that the Taliban has not yet kept its promise at Doha (the basis of the proposed US troops withdrawal) to cut off ties with Al Qaeda and other militant groups. It has neither publicly renounced Al Qaeda nor taken any discernible action to limit Al Qaeda inside Afghanistan.

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Author and veteran journalist Prakash Nanda has been commenting on Indian politics, foreign policy on strategic affairs for nearly three decades. A former National Fellow of the Indian Council for Historical Research and recipient of the Seoul Peace Prize Scholarship, he is also a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. He has been a Visiting Professor at Yonsei University (Seoul) and FMSH (Paris). He has also been the Chairman of the Governing Body of leading colleges of the Delhi University. Educated at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, he has undergone professional courses at Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (Boston) and Seoul National University (Seoul). Apart from writing many monographs and chapters for various books, he has authored books: Prime Minister Modi: Challenges Ahead; Rediscovering Asia: Evolution of India’s Look-East Policy; Rising India: Friends and Foes; Nuclearization of Divided Nations: Pakistan, Koreas and India; Vajpayee’s Foreign Policy: Daring the Irreversible. He has written over 3000 articles and columns in India’s national media and several international dailies and magazines. CONTACT: prakash.nanda@hotmail.com
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