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US Could Lose 1000 Fighter Jets, Its Entire Global Fleet If It Goes To War Against China Over Taiwan – Military Experts

US-China War: Nuclear weapons are not factored into the US-China war game to keep the scope of the game manageable, meaning the experts on either side did not consider the use of nuclear weapons if the conventional war escalated.

In the event of a potential future conflict with China, the US could lose over 900 fighter jets, according to a team of American defense experts who conducted a war game simulating the US military response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026.

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While China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was busy conducting military exercises around Taiwan, experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) have been postulating a US-China war over the island.

The ongoing simulation has shown that the US could probably prevent the takeover of Taiwan by China or at least reach a stalemate, but it would end up paying a high cost in terms of ships, aircraft, and people’s lives.

The CSIS will run 22 simulations this year, partnering with various defense experts, retired military officers, and former Pentagon officials, and ultimately publish a report in December.

In 18 of the 22 rounds, the US lost around 500 aircraft, 20 surface ships, and two aircraft carriers in every round, according to the simulation staff involved. Losses at such shocking levels have been unknown to the US since World War 2.

“It is a very tough sell for China such that if Taiwan resisted and the US came to Taiwan’s aid, there’s an extremely low possibility that China would be successful,” Matthew Cancian, who partnered with CSIS as one of the wargame’s chief architects, told Breaking Defense. “But, the US takes a lot of losses… In many games, the US will lose almost its entire global fleet of tactical aviation.”

Experts note that the outcome of the war varied from game to game but what remained constant throughout all the simulations was massive losses on both sides.

As earlier reported by the EurAsian Times, the Chinese military is expected to be capable of fighting Taiwan and its allies together by 2027, per a report by the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense (MND).

War Game Simulations

China declared its decision to invade Taiwan, and the US decided to come to the island nation’s defense. Additionally, Japan, which has a base-sharing agreement with the US, does not actively participate in the conflict unless attacked directly.




A Chinese rocket force brigade practiced the fast transfer of DF-26 ballistic missiles to another location to launch a second wave of missiles. (Xinhua)

Also, one of the conditions of the war games is that Taiwanese forces are primarily gathered in the capital city of Taipei but are crippled for the first three to four days.

This is to hypothesize a potential Chinese cyber-attack on Taiwan’s infrastructure in the initial hours of the conflict to slow down a response, just like Russia did during its invasion of Ukraine in February.

Every game simulates about three to four weeks of fighting.

Most importantly, nuclear weapons are not factored into the war game to keep the scope of the game manageable, meaning the experts on either side did not consider the use of nuclear weapons if the conventional war escalated.

US-China WarGames -TakeAway

According to experts, there have been a few takeaways from the 18 rounds of simulations so far.

One of the key takeaways was that the Chinese PLA would most probably try to invade Taiwan from the southern end of the island.

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