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Taiwan Is No Japan Or Korea; Will US Defend ‘Tiny Taiwan’ If China Launches All-Out Attack On ‘Breakaway Province’?

US-China Tensions: Will the US abandon Taiwan if China attacks the island? There has been no convincing answer to this question from the Biden Administration. As John Bolton says - "Disarray has marked Biden's efforts to stop Pelosi's Taiwan visit. China's rhetorical pressure has been intense, and the Administration's discomfort far too visible.

The credibility of the United States (US) as a dependable ally or friend seems to have mattered as a big factor behind the Biden Administration, hitherto reluctant, now warning China to show restraint against the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s expected arrival in Taipei this evening.

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Though uncertainties still prevail over Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the Biden Administration has changed its stance.

In fact, 24 hours earlier, White House national security spokesman John Kirby had talked of the possible military escalation of the region by China in the event of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, with which the US maintains a “robust, unofficial relationship” with Taiwan, though it has formal diplomatic ties with China, not Taiwan.

He, perhaps, had in his mind the remark of President Biden that “the US military believes a Pelosi visit to Taiwan is not a good idea right now.”

But the same Kirby now says that the Biden administration would support Pelosi on a trip to Taiwan. He told CNN — “We want to make sure that when she travels overseas, she can do so safely and securely and we’re going to make sure of that. There is no reason for the Chinese rhetoric. There is no reason for any actions to be taken. It is not uncommon for congressional leaders to travel to Taiwan.”

Kirby is right when he says that Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan is not unprecedented. There have been similar visits in the past, notwithstanding the US pursuing a one-China policy, under which the United States recognizes the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal government of China and acknowledges (but does not endorse) China’s position that there is but one China and that Taiwan is part of China.

Another Speaker, Newt Gingrich, had visited Taipei in 1997 and met with the then Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui. Even otherwise, US Congressional delegations and cabinet-level officials routinely visit Taiwan. In 2020, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar visited Taipei.




Nancy Pelosi Taiwan visit
Nancy Pelosi speaking at the US Department of Labor on Equal Pay Day (Wikimedia Commons)

Besides, the then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had sent his congratulations to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen on her inauguration in 2020. The Trump administration had hosted Taiwan’s diplomats at the State Department and in other federal government buildings, which has remained the practice during the Biden administration.

Present Secretary of State Antony Blinken has publicly referred to Taiwan as a “country.”

The Biden administration extended an invitation to Taiwan’s representative in the United States to attend Biden’s inauguration and invited Taiwan to participate in its Summit for Democracy recently.

US-China Tensions Over Taiwan — Nothing New

Similarly, the Chinese anger over Pelosi’s travel on US military aircraft is nothing new, as in June last year, three US senators landed in Taiwan aboard a US Air Force plane.

Meanwhile, China has threatened that its military “won’t sit by idly” if Beijing feels its “sovereignty and territorial integrity” is being threatened.

“We would like to tell the US once again that China is standing by, and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army will never sit idly by. China will take resolute responses and strong countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told reporters on Monday when asked about the fallout of Pelosi’s landing in Taipei.

In fact, some Chinese hardliners have suggested that China’s armed forces must impose a no-fly zone on Taiwan or at least fly aircraft over the island.

Critical Time For Xi Jinping

It remains to be seen how  China will behave in concrete terms, but there is no denying the fact that the timing of Pelosi’s visit is quite sensitive for Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is about to secure a third term during the  Communist Party congress in three months’ time.

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Author and veteran journalist Prakash Nanda has been commenting on Indian politics, foreign policy on strategic affairs for nearly three decades. A former National Fellow of the Indian Council for Historical Research and recipient of the Seoul Peace Prize Scholarship, he is also a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. He has been a Visiting Professor at Yonsei University (Seoul) and FMSH (Paris). He has also been the Chairman of the Governing Body of leading colleges of the Delhi University. Educated at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, he has undergone professional courses at Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy (Boston) and Seoul National University (Seoul). Apart from writing many monographs and chapters for various books, he has authored books: Prime Minister Modi: Challenges Ahead; Rediscovering Asia: Evolution of India’s Look-East Policy; Rising India: Friends and Foes; Nuclearization of Divided Nations: Pakistan, Koreas and India; Vajpayee’s Foreign Policy: Daring the Irreversible. He has written over 3000 articles and columns in India’s national media and several international dailies and magazines. CONTACT: prakash.nanda@hotmail.com
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