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China’s Attack On Taiwan Could Be ‘Fast & Ferocious’; Beijing Not Dissuaded By Russian ‘Fiasco’ In Ukraine – IISS

A leading strategic think tank, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), recently published a report that stated there is no evidence that Russia’s stumbling invasion of Ukraine has altered China’s intentions about a potential invasion of Taiwan.

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had the United States and virtually the entire West invested in the bloody war raging in Europe for the last year. However, in a stark analysis, the report says China remains the “leading long-term challenge” to the existing international order.

Contrary to the opinion that the war in Europe might slow down defense spending in Asia and dissuade China from undertaking any fresh adventurism, the report states that the protracted conflict in Europe may also hasten trends toward increased military spending and efforts to develop military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region.

The report has been published ahead of the Shangri La Dialogue, also hosted by the IISS, later this week. The dialogue has already triggered a controversy, with Beijing declining a request from Washington for a meeting between the countries’ defense chiefs.

The conflict and its effects on the Asia-Pacific region and the intensifying rivalry between the US and China will be the main theme of the security conference, which has long served as a venue for top security officials to interact in person.

This also makes the report’s findings significant, which is an annual evaluation of Asia-Pacific security authored by the experts at the think tank.

Analyzing the overall global effect of the war on the Asia Pacific region, the report argues that there is no proof that the war in Ukraine has “altered Chinese thinking on the timescale or methodology” for a potential attack on Taiwan.

“Beijing’s view of Taiwan as an internal challenge has shaped its assessment that a Chinese use of force to regain the island would be utterly dissimilar to the Ukraine war,” the report said. However, according to the report, Chinese military analysts had examined the effects of Western assistance for Ukraine and the elements that contributed to Russia’s subpar military performance.

It continued that it was “impossible to predict” whether China would use force to annex Taiwan in the future and that Beijing’s decision-making would be influenced not only by “an assessment of military capability but also by a consideration of likely US and allied non-military reactions,” including potential economic effects.

This assertion is significant because since Russia launched the unprecedented invasion in February last year, military watchers have stated that China has been keenly watching Russia’s military effort to learn from Moscow’s mistake if/when it decides to invade Taiwan.

Earlier this year, the Taiwanese defense ministry said China’s military is learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that any attack on Taiwan would have to be swift to succeed.

“The Russia-Ukraine war has brought great lessons for them – they will seek speed,” Taiwan Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng had told reporters.

Russia launched a massive blitzkrieg-like military operation against Ukraine last year. However, it was met with a stiff and skillful defense by Ukraine, partly due to the intelligence assessments made available by the West to Kyiv in the days leading up to the invasion.




CHINA-TAIWAN
File Image: Flags of China & Taiwan

To Invade, Or To Not Invade Taiwan

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