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India Set To ‘Beat’ China In Maldives; Pro-India Solih Set To Overcome Pro-China Yameen In New Elections

The Maldives will elect a new President on September 9 to validate the fledgling democratic values of the atoll nation. However, the vote is seen as one between India and the People’s Republic of China, two countries that have shaped the narrative of Maldives’s geopolitics in recent years.

The Maldives has been a significant point of contention in Indian Ocean geopolitics in recent years. This is why observers interpret the election as a struggle for influence between China and India, especially since incumbent President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih brought pro-India politics after a bout of Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom’s pro-Chinese stance.

The last election in the Maldives, held in September 2018, was widely viewed as a win for India and a loss for China. The Maldives grew closer to China during the previous administration, led by Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, by taking part in the Belt and Road Initiative, pursuing large-scale projects like the China-Maldives Friendship Bridge, and aiming to sign a free trade agreement with China.

In contrast, the current Solih administration continues to support India and adhere to its “India First” foreign policy, which supports India’s “Neighborhood First” philosophy. Although it does not consider itself anti-China, the Solih administration maintains friendly but circumspect bilateral relations with Beijing.

This time, there are eight contenders from five political parties and three independents, making it the most candidates running for president since the Maldives held its first multiparty presidential election in late 2008. President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih is running for re-election in a record-breaking second term despite several political obstacles.




Ibrahim Mohamed Solih - Wikipedia
Ibrahim Mohamed Solih – Wikipedia

The former president Abdulla Yameen, who is currently serving time in prison for accepting bribes and money laundering, and former president Mohamed Nasheed, the speaker of the parliament and a former ally of Solih who split this year over political differences, are the two formidable opponents who could have mounted a tough challenge had they run.

Solih still has several challenges, including a minor party in which Mohamed Nasheed is crucial. Mohamed Nasheed had left the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) earlier this year due to escalating political tensions.

Following the schism that severely polarized party members, Nasheed’s supporters founded a new group called The Democrats, whose candidate, lawmaker Ilyas Labeeb, is one of seven opponents taking on President Solih.

Locals notice that capital Male’s Mayor Mohamed Muizzu, who is running for the People’s National Congress because imprisoned President Abdulla Yameen was disqualified from contesting, has also garnered much support.




Former President Abdulla Yameen

However, there are reports that the soft-spoken Solih, whose pro-India leanings molded his debut administration and signified a strategic shift from the pro-China bent of his predecessor, has been courting Maldivian voters in constituencies outside of Male.

According to national opinion polls by an independent think tank, the 61-year-old, commonly known as “Ibu,” is in the lead before the first round of voting.

A late-August analysis of voter mood by the Baani Centre for International Policy suggested that “President Solih remains the most popular candidate” among eight competitors. However, it warned against picking a winner in the first round because 53% of respondents were “undecided.”

Malaysia Caught In The India-China Crossroads

India and China are the two rivals coveting influence in the Maldives due to the atoll nation’s location in the middle of vital shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean. India’s interest in the Maldives is sparked by its geographical proximity, while China’s interest is sparked by the Maldives’ strategic location along Beijing’s Maritime Silk Route (MSR).

After Yameen was elected president in 2013, relations between China and the Maldives improved. In 2014, President Xi Jinping visited the country to solicit support for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) initiative. Meanwhile, Yameen’s campaign on domestic dissent and opposition came under more and more criticism from India and other countries, prompting the Maldivian leader to move even closer to China.

Yameen leased islands and infrastructure projects to China, and the two nations inked a Free Trade Agreement despite ostensibly pursuing an “India First” policy. In exchange, China provided the Maldives with loans and large infrastructure projects, most of which came with ambiguous terms and conditions benefitting Yameen.

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