Ever since the Pahalgam terror attack, India has been exploring its options to launch punitive strikes in Pakistan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given complete “operational freedom” to the Indian military to decide on the mode, target, and timing of the response to the terror attack.
However, a little-known Indian overseas military base in Central Asia could provide policymakers in New Delhi with additional options to launch intelligence gathering, reconnaissance, and combat missions in Pakistan, while avoiding the heavily defended Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB) with Pakistan.
Islamabad is anticipating an “imminent Indian attack,” and the Pakistani military remains on high alert. Reports suggest that it has activated its air defenses, moved military equipment closer to the border with India, and launched military drills to project power.
However, an Indian operation from behind Pakistan’s defense lines, i.e., an incursion from Pakistan’s western frontier with Afghanistan, will take Islamabad by surprise.
Notably, Pakistan has historically focused on guarding its eastern frontier with India and neglected the western and northern frontiers with Afghanistan. Islamabad’s best air defense systems and surface-to-air missiles are concentrated on the LoC and IB with India.
It was this lack of defensive measures on the western frontier that allowed the US to enter unchallenged in 2011 and kill Osama Bin Laden in Abbottabad. Fourteen years later, Pakistan’s eastern and northern frontiers are still poorly defended, providing a window of opportunity to New Delhi.
For such an operation, New Delhi can press into service its little-known but strategic overseas air base in southern Tajikistan, which is less than 600 km from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
India’s Strategic Air Base In Tajikistan
India has maintained a military presence in Tajikistan for nearly thirty years now. In the 1990s, it maintained a military hospital in the Farkhor region of southern Tajikistan, close to the Afghanistan border.
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During this period, Afghanistan was going through a civil war. The Soviet forces had withdrawn, and Afghanistan had entered a phase of bloody civil war between the Pakistan-supported Taliban forces, dominant in southern and eastern Afghanistan, and the Northern Alliance forces, dominant in Northern Afghanistan close to the border with Tajikistan.
During this period, India supported the Northern Alliance, which was led by the late Ahmed Shah Masood, an Afghan Tajik guerrilla leader.
It was in this military hospital that Masood was brought in for treatment after a suicide bomber blew himself up near him on September 9, 2001. However, the military doctors could not save Masood.
Just two days later, on September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda attacked the US in what is now known as the 9/11 terror attacks.
It was in the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attacks and the subsequent American ‘War on Terror’ that some “radical thinkers” in New Delhi came up with the idea of developing the dilapidated Gissar Military Aerodrome (GMA), also known as Ayni airbase in southern Tajikistan.
Just west of the Tajikistan capital, Dushanbe, Ayni airbase is less than 150 km from the northern Afghanistan border.
According to reports, the then Vajpayee government and defense minister George Fernandes strongly backed the project. The current National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval, and former Air Force chief Air Chief Marshal B.S. Dhanoa also had a key role in setting up the base, which was funded by the Ministry of External Affairs.
The Indian government hired a private contractor and the Border Roads Organization (BRO) for the project. The airstrip at Gissar was extended to 3,200 metres, long enough for most fixed-wing aircraft to land and take off.
The Indian team also developed hangars, overhauling, and the refueling capacity of aircraft. India spent an estimated US$ 100 million on developing the Ayni airbase.
Air Chief Marshal Dhanoa was appointed the first Base Commander of an ‘operational’ GMA around the end of 2005 when he was a Group Captain.
India has also temporarily deployed its Su-30MKI fighter jets at the base, according to some reports.
When India Used Ayni Airbase During The Afghanistan Crisis
There is also a precedent of India using the strategic Ayni airbase for an international operation. During August 2021, when the US was chaotically withdrawing from Afghanistan and the Taliban swiftly overran Kabul, India had the challenge of evacuating its hundreds of citizens and diplomats from Kabul.
During those troubled times, the Ayni airbase came in handy.
Indian News Agency ANI reported that New Delhi operated C-17 and C-130 J transport aircraft of the Indian Air Force from the Ayni airbase to evacuate its citizens from Kabul.
A C-130 J aircraft airlifted 87 Indians from Kabul and landed in Tajikistan. The Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jasiwal confirmed the news on the platform X.
Ayni Airbase’s Strategic Role
In the present crisis, the Ayni airbase can perform several strategic objectives for India.
At the very least, the mere presence of an Indian airbase in Tajikistan can force Pakistan to recalibrate its strategy and redistribute some of its air defense systems and surface-to-air missiles from the eastern front to the northern and western fronts. This will inevitably thin out Pakistan’s already stretched military resources.
India could also launch Intelligence gathering, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) missions into Pakistan from this base. Peshawar is just 500 km from this base, and Islamabad and PoK are nearly 600 km away.
However, Indian aircraft will have to cross Afghanistan to reach Pakistani airspace. Since Afghanistan has no sophisticated air defense systems, Indian aircraft can easily achieve this.
Another option is for India to enter PoK from the Wakhan Corridor, a no-man’s land between PoK and southern Tajikistan. It is highly unlikely that India will face any resistance on this route. India could also employ drones for these tasks to minimize the risk to its pilots and costly fighter aircraft.
As a last resort, India could also launch combat operations from the Ayni airbase. However, this could be complicated and create diplomatic troubles for India and Tajikistan.
Since Prime Minister Modi has given the Indian armed forces complete “operational freedom” to decide the mode, target, and timing of the attack, all these options are on the table and will be explored by the military leadership before making a final decision.
However, it can be safely said that the presence of an overseas Indian military base in Tajikistan would disturb Pakistan’s strategic calculus.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
