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“Hermit Kingdom” To Replace Russian Gas In Europe As EU Looks To Wean Off Energy Dependence On Moscow

Turkmenistan, nicknamed the ‘Hermit Kingdom’ of Central Asia, is poised to alter the European Union’s energy import pattern. The implosion of the erstwhile Soviet Union in 1991 led to the declaration of independence by the Central Asian states. Among former Soviet Republics, Turkmenistan became the only country to adopt a policy of ‘isolation’ and minimal interaction with its neighbours.

At one point, its political leaders even considered making their country a neutral state like Switzerland.

But in an era of globalization, Turkmenistan realized it had to come out from its shell, restructure its economic policy, and participate in the world economic order.

Energy Resources

Turkmenistan was aware of its huge energy resources. During the Soviet era, scientists and geologists confirmed the existence of a huge quantity of natural gas under the sands of Turkmenistan.

However, for unknown reasons, this valuable energy source’s exploration, exploitation, and marketing have not been undertaken profitably.

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Perhaps inadequate funds, lack of technical expertise, and the absence of an effective energy policy contributed to the de-prioritization of gas as the mainstay of the Turkmenistan economy.

Experts estimate Turkmenistan possessing the world’s fifth-largest proven natural gas reserves. However, until recently, Ashgabat had been reluctant to strike deals to send gas westward, as most of its exports would move towards Russia or China.

Commentators believe that Turkmenistan’s leadership was wary of Western influences once their energy cartels spread their fangs. One regional observer recently described Turkmenistan as “arguably the second most insular state in the world after North Korea.”

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TAPI

The Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline project had envisaged a 1,814 km (1,127 miles) long pipeline to carry Turkmenistan natural gas from the Galkynysh Gas Field to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.

Conceptualized around 1995 in the Turkmenistan capital Ashgabat, the project was met with many obstructions and political interference.




Turkmenistan gas pipelines. File Photo.

The project remained mired in controversies. After a regime change in Afghanistan in 2021, no progress was reported in its completion. India and Pakistan, too, seem to have lost interest in the project.

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New Initiative

Shedding its long-standing image of an isolated state, over the past few months, Ashgabat has vigorously initiated a long-term deal that could be a game changer for its economy and could also significantly alter the European Union’s energy-import pattern.

EurasiaNet reported on March 6 that Turkmenistan has initiated a gas swap arrangement with Iran and Turkey. This will be the first time Turkmenistan gas will flow westward, bypassing Russia.

Analysing the impact of Turkmenistan’s new initiative, economic experts think its success could significantly diversify Europe’s energy sources and reshape the global energy market.

A swap arrangement with Iran and Turkey is the lynchpin of Turkmenistan’s gas export diversification push. Ashgabat is expected to supply Ankara with 1.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas by the end of 2025, with annual supplies slated to increase to 2 bcm in the following years. The gas started flowing on March 1, 2025.

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