The developments of the last two months of 2024 have set alarm bells ringing in New Delhi as China debuted a second fifth-generation aircraft and flew two sixth-generation fighter jet prototypes.
In contrast, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is currently staring at a massive lacuna in its capability with no fifth-generation stealth aircraft and a rapidly dwindling squadron strength.
After deploying its J-20 Mighty Dragon to all five theatre commands and expanding production, China unveiled another fifth-generation stealth aircraft—the J-35A—at its biannual Zhuhai Air Show in November 2024. This aircraft also has a carrier variant.
While India was still coping with the whirlwind expansion in China’s fighter jet arsenal demonstrated by J-35A’s debut, Beijing sprung a surprise and flew sixth-generation fighter prototypes on December 26.
The tailless, supersonic stealth aircraft have been designated as the Chengdu J-36 and the Shenyang J-XX/J-50 by military watchers who believe China could be the first country to induct a sixth-generation fighter jet in service.
Though some military watchers have expressed skepticism about the aircraft truly being next-generation, others have noted that the sixth generation is a set of technologies that can be integrated now and mature over time.
Either way, India has been anxiously watching.
The yawning technological gap has triggered strong reactions from veterans, military experts, and military bloggers alike, with most of them imploring India to expedite the development of India’s fifth-generation aircraft—the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
Some others have also called on the government to quickly acquire an advanced aircraft under the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) because the IAF would “need numbers” for a potential war with China or a two-front exigency that includes Pakistan.
However, the situation remains grim because, so far, only three countries have operational fifth-generation stealth fighters. With China out of the question due to their rivalry, India is left with just two options if it were to purchase a fifth-gen aircraft—the US F-35 Lightning II and the Russian Su-57 Felon. Of these two, the Su-57 has been suffering from production woes as Russia remains vested in a protracted conflict with Ukraine.
So, this practically leaves India with just the F-35 Lightning II. But here’s a catch: the United States has not officially offered the aircraft to India. Instead, the manufacturer, US-based Lockheed Martin has offered the F-21 to India for the MRFA acquisition.
F-35 Lightning II For India—Can It Happen?
The US has not explicitly stated that it would be open to selling the F-35 to India, partly because India uses a host of Russian-origin military equipment, particularly the S-400 air defense system.
On several occasions, the US has demonstrated that it is very protective of its F-35 Lightning II and very selective about which countries can have it. For example, Turkey was expelled from the F-35 consortium due to its purchase of the S-400.
Experts have often wondered how different the situation would be in India’s case.
In a spectacular turn of events, though, Lockheed Martin presented the aircraft at Aero India 2023, igniting speculation that a sale might not be unthinkable. While the prospect of a potential sale started gaining traction in India, an official from Lockheed Martin confirmed that it was in “very early stages” of offering F-35s to IAF.
The F-35A is the US Air Force’s highly advanced multi-role, supersonic, stealth fifth-generation fighter. The aircraft can perform air superiority and strike missions and is capable of electronic warfare, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
A large section of military analysts in India believe that an acquisition of the F-35 could give a big boost to the IAF. That, however, might not be as simple as it sounds. For one, Lockheed Martin is aggressively pushing its F-21 to India. The aircraft, believed to be an upgraded variant of the F-16, is tailored for IAF’s unique requirements, according to the manufacturer.
Even if the US were to grant an exemption and sell the F-35A Lightning II to India, it is unlikely to transfer technology for local manufacturing. This essentially means that a purchase of F-35 would not fit into India’s ‘Make in India’ scheme.
However, considering a scenario where some extent of technology transfer has been approved, and local manufacturing is allowed, there would still be persisting troubles, as emphasized by former Air Marshal Anil Khosla, the Vice Chief of Air Staff (VCAS), at a podcast in October 2024.
Air Marshal Khosla drew attention to the possible production challenges resulting from the aircraft’s supply chain dependencies as Lockheed sources parts for the F-35 from several nations. Air Marshal Khosla warned that any delay or disturbance in component delivery might affect the entire production process.
He said India’s dependence on foreign supplies will limit its localization capacity. He pointed out that the IAF would find it challenging to handle these complications since India might not have instant access to the replacement parts or vital technology needed for maintenance and upgrades. He also highlighted the persistent delays in the delivery of F-35 components, including its engines.
Earlier, Air Marshal Khosla advocated for acquiring an aircraft like Rafale that could be delivered to India within a reasonable time frame. Rafale is one of the frontrunners for the Multi Role Fighter Aircraft Contract (MRFA). However, his stance shifted after China’s J-36 made an appearance.
Air Marshal Khosla told the EurAsian Times: “The time has come to make some hard decisions. The balance between quantity (numbers) and quality has to be maintained. The goalpost for the leapfrog needs to be shifted. While we accelerate our indigenous program, we must acquire fifth-generation aircraft as early as possible.”
“F-35 didn’t feel like an option earlier due to factors like cost and delivery times. I feel we have reached a desperate situation wherein even procurement of F-35 should be pursued,” he added.
On whether the United States would be willing to part with the sensitive F-35 technology and agree to technology transfer for indigenous production, Air Marshal Khosla told EurAsian Times: “I don’t think they will give us 100% TOT. They will retain the critical ones. We should negotiate to get the best deal.”
He also added that India should procure a minimum of two squadrons to begin with, and the number should increase gradually.
Notably, several observers have called upon the Indian government to join a sixth-generation combat aircraft development program to build capability against its technologically superior adversary.
Some IAF veterans think India should join either the UK-Japan-Italy Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) or the France-Germany-Spain Future Combat Air System (FCAS) Program. However, whether these stakeholders will be open to India’s participation is debatable. Moreover, India would have to factor in costs and risks before deciding.
When asked whether India should consider one of the sixth-generation aircraft programs, Air Marshal Khosla said, “At this point, India must consider all options and go in for the best deal.”
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