The world’s richest person and President-elect Donald Trump’s closest confidant, Elon Musk, thinks that the F-35, one of the US’s most advanced stealth fighters, is “expensive, complex,” and fast becoming “obsolete” in the age of drones.
In a tweet, the SpaceX CEO said, “The F-35 design was broken at the requirements level, because it was required to be too many things to too many people. This made it an expensive & complex jack of all trades, master of none. Success was never in the set of possible outcomes. And manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones anyway. Will just get pilots killed.”
“Meanwhile, some idiots are still building manned fighter jets like the F-35,” Musk said in another tweet. His tweets were accompanied by a video of a large drone swarm, reportedly Chinese, flying in harmony and making display patterns in the sky.
The views were considered significant because Elon Musk is not only the richest person with US$323 billion in wealth as of November 2024 but also runs two leading-edge futuristic technology companies – SpaceX and the automotive company Tesla, among many others.
Besides, President-elect Trump has chosen Musk to co-lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and slash federal spending. Musk has been revealing his mind through a stream of messages on his own Twitter/X platform, ostensibly seeking reactions as well.
He says he wants to save the debt-ridden nation US$2 trillion. Clearly, his views on the F-35 are potentially alarming for defense contractors. Lockheed Martin, the largest defense contractor in the world and the maker of F-35, saw its shares take a 3 percent dip.
Twitter is not an ideal platform for nuanced discussion, and there were few informed comments in what followed. The Pro-F-35 and pro-Musk factions seem deeply committed. However, many fighter pilots and experts in the military-industrial complex disagree with Musk. Someone termed it “DOGE Versus Stealth.” It’s time to analyze.
What Is Elon Conveying?
At the base level, Elon feels the future is in unscrewed platforms, including swarms, and one should not be sinking money into manned fighters. He called the F-35 program the worst military value for money in history. Musk explained that it is not just the F-35 that he sees as outdated; it is all aircraft with pilots on board. The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is a 5th-generation fighter that is being inducted in large numbers by many major air forces of the world.
A large proportion of the US defense budget goes to the “Big Five” traditional defense contractors: Lockheed Martin, Boeing, RTX (Raytheon), General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman. Musk considers the F-35 old-world technology and, thus, a good case for disruptive cuts. Musk seems to be a big fan of drones and tweeted earlier, “Drone swarm battles are coming that will boggle the mind.” This is also good news for AI application companies.
Musk has not spelled out why he sees the F-35 as flawed. He did comment on the limitations of the stealth design, saying, “Stealth means nothing if you use elementary AI with low-light sensitivity cameras (thermal imaging). They (stealth aircraft) aren’t invisible.”
“Crewed fighter jets are an inefficient way to extend the range of missiles or drop bombs. A reusable drone can do so without all the overhead of a human pilot. And fighter jets will be shot down very quickly if the opposing force has sophisticated SAM or drones, as shown by the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” he elucidated. While Ukraine and Russia acquire over a million drones yearly, Musk said the U.S. still buys them by the thousands.
Trump has assured that he will provide record funding for the military. So, if big programs like the F-35 are cut, it could mean significant investments in new programs. Finally, it will all depend on the latitude Trump gives DOGE.
Meanwhile, “The Pentagon, with a budget of US$824 billion, just failed its 7th audit in a row. It’s lost track of billions,” said Musk. Democrat Senator Bernie Sanders also endorsed Musk. “Last year, 13 senators voted against the Military Industrial Complex and a defense budget full of waste and fraud,” Sanders wrote in his X post.
F-35 Program
The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II is an American family of single-seat, single-engine, supersonic stealth strike fighters. A multirole combat aircraft designed for both air superiority and strike missions, it also has electronic warfare and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities.
It has three variants: the conventional take-off and landing (CTOL) F-35A, the short take-off and vertical-landing (STOVL) F-35B, and the carrier variant (CV) catapult-assisted take-off but arrested recovery (CATOBAR) F-35C. The aircraft costs nearly US$100 million and is operated/ordered by 19 countries. Over 1,000 have already been built. The U.S. alone plans to buy 2,456 F-35s through 2044. The aircraft is planned to be a cornerstone of NATO and U.S.-allied air power and to operate till 2070.
The aircraft has endured a seemingly endless series of delays, cost overruns, and technical glitches. The program is estimated to be a decade behind schedule and US$180 billion over budget. However, according to the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation’s annual report, it still struggles with “reliability, maintainability, and availability. “
However, the program chugs along simply because of the investment and lack of alternatives that make it “too big to fail.” The F-35’s total program cost is expected to top US$2 trillion over its life span. Notwithstanding budget overruns, the aircraft is considered very capable and has been used successfully in combat.
Evolving Fighters And Bombers
Most major air forces worldwide have fifth-generation stealth fighters and bombers. These fighters include the Lockheed F-22 Raptor and F-35, Russian Sukhoi Su-57 Felon, Chinese J-20 and J-35, and Turkish TAI Kaan. The bombers include the Northrop Grumman B-2 Spirit and B-21 Raider.
The evolving future combat aircraft are mostly manned or, at best, optionally manned. These include the American Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) and Sukhoi Su-75 Checkmate, FCAS (New Generation Fighter), Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), HAL AMCA, Chinese Xian H-20 bomber, and Tupolev PAK DA bomber, among others. Many stealth unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) are also evolving. There have also been thoughts about “heavy stealth” for AEW&C and Aerial Tankers.
Uncrewed Aerial Platforms And Drones
Uncrewed systems move the pilot out of the platform, allowing maneuvers restricted to human physiological limits and reducing human risk. A large number of unscrewed aerial platforms are flying around the world. Initially used mainly for Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), they now also perform most combat roles, including surface and subsurface attacks, aerial combat engagements, and electronic warfare.
They are also used for all kinds of support roles, such as communication relay, cargo delivery, and flight refueling. The large platforms may not be cheap. India recently acquired the General Atomics MQ-9B drones, each costing nearly US$90 million. Over a dozen MQ-9s have been shot down in conflicts around the Black and Red Seas.
Recent conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine, and West Asia have highlighted the role of drones. These are relatively inexpensive and can be easily produced or acquired even by smaller militaries and non-state players, thus democratizing conflict.
They are being used for first-person view (FPV), decoys, electronic warfare, and kamikaze attacks. They also have an anti-drone role. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning are greatly supporting increased autonomy. Of course, there are ethical and legal issues related to autonomy when involved in killing.
Drone swarms could consist of hundreds or even thousands of drones flying in a coordinated manner and taking on a variety of shared and connected operational tasks. They can muster numbers for large force engagements and could also have anti-swarm roles. Swarm roles are still evolving but have a promising future.
The success rate of anti-drone systems has been fairly high in all recent conflicts. Drones can be downed through hard contact, communications jamming, electro-optical sensors, GPS, or cyber-attack. They are highly susceptible to directed energy weapons (DEW).
Man Unmanned Teaming
Manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) is the operation of manned and unmanned assets in concert towards a shared mission objective. Also known as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drones or Loyal Wingmen, it is one of the key innovations that will pave the way to future air power.
Sensors installed on unmanned aircraft will improve the coverage of manned platforms, adding to mission efficiency and effectiveness. MUM-T is also revolutionizing mission autonomy. All major countries have active programs to progress MUM-T.
Counters To Elon Musk’s Views
Musk makes an important point, but there are many problems with his line of thinking. Drones operating within enemy airspace will require a very high level of autonomy. They are already being shot left, right, and center.
A reusable drone would also require stealth, penetrating enemy airspace and evading air defenses, which makes Musk’s comments about stealth questionable.
The benefits and limitations of stealth technology are well-known and being debated. Also, means to detect stealth aircraft are still evolving. Many senior Air Force officials and think tanks feel that Musk was putting too much faith in autonomous technology and that the human mind would always have a competitive advantage in a dogfight. The Air Force is open to autonomy and backs collaborative programs like the CCA.
Considering the competition and conflicts in Europe, West Asia, and the Indo-Pacific, defense spending cannot be cut but must be re-appropriated.
The F-35 has the backing of the three U.S. military branches. Military aviators consider the F-35 a solid performer that has been adopted by nearly 20 countries and is lauded by pilots as a technological leap over previous fighters.
Pilots continually emphasize that this is the fighter they want to take to war if called upon. As per the committed orders, there will be 700 F-35s in Europe, and only 60 will belong to the U.S.
The F-35 is the most advanced, survivable, and connected fighter aircraft in the world, a vital deterrent and the cornerstone of joint all-domain operations, said the US Air Force (USAF) spokesperson, as he declined to comment on Elon Musk’s tweets. “The F-35 delivers a range of capabilities that would be tough to replicate using uncrewed aircraft,” US Navy Cmdr. Darin Russell said.
Michael Bohnert, a licensed engineer at the RAND Corporation, said that eliminating the pilot wouldn’t really change costs. Recreating the capabilities of an F-35 would require multiple drones, which could make the final costs of those platforms more expensive and, ultimately, still less capable.
Stacy Pettyjohn, director of the Defence Program at the Center for a New American Security, said, “The US can’t replace crewed aircraft with drones in the near term anyway. The technology isn’t advanced enough yet. Almost all of the drones that exist today are remotely piloted or at most semi-autonomous, and developing responsible autonomy is still a distance away.”
As someone with no warfighting experience and no experience designing fighter jets and combat drones, why must we listen to him (Musk)? said an anonymous writer. He added that saying fighter jets or planes are obsolete because of drones is like saying trucks or trains are obsolete because of self-driving cars.
The F-35 Political Angle
Lockheed Martin is in the process of contract negotiations for the next two lots (estimated 300) of aircraft. This will happen after the new administration takes over. The Lockheed Martin spokesperson said, “As we did in his first term, we look forward to a strong working relationship with President Trump, his team, and also with the new Congress to strengthen our national defense.”
Many Republican members of Congress have voiced support for the program, especially in Texas, Georgia, and California, where most F-35 airframe work is done, and Utah, where the Air Force’s F-35 depot is located.
Connecticut and Florida delegations are also staunch F-35 supporters because its engine, the F135, is made by Pratt & Whitney in those states. The F-35 program has developmental financial partnerships with nine other countries.
Curtailments will have implications. Trump himself has praised the F-35, mentioning it by name at several campaign rallies. Trump has always backed weapons exports, and the F-35 has a huge market.
To Summarise
During its 25-year history, the F-35 program has weathered delays, cost overruns, and controversies. The F-35 Team continuously engages with suppliers to ensure the necessary focus on quality and upgrades.
The USAF is in the midst of rethinking its approach to air superiority. The Next-Generation Air Dominance manned fighter, long seen as the key to the future of air superiority, is under review for the technologies involved and their cost.
The plan to acquire 1,763 F-35s might be reduced because of the very high operating costs. This has nothing to do with the Elon Musk tweet. The USAF already has about 450 F-35As. Lockheed Martin hopes to reduce the cost per hour of operations from around US$40,000 to US$25,000 by 2025 through performance-based logistics and other measures.
Interestingly, the 2024 Reagan National Defence Survey found optimism after Trump’s re-election. The survey revealed that Americans favor more international engagement and military spending.
Defense spending rationalization can be done by many other means. There is already a Government Accountability Office monitoring the F-35 and other programs. If there are holes, then those may be plugged.
The Pentagon certainly needs to be made more accountable. The debate should not if be the “F-35 or Drones”, but “F-35 and how many drones”. Musk’s statement is more like “letting a cat among the pigeons.” The actual cuts will surely be after detailed deliberations. Will Musk be able to win over all Congressmen?
The USA must cater to the evolving threat and not build isolated assets. They understand what Russia and China are building. The F-35 is a vital deterrent and the cornerstone of joint all-domain operations. Comparing it with drones is “like comparing apples with fish.”
A software engineer finds the F-35 fascinating – it’s called the “hive mind” for a reason. You also have to consider that cyber and electronic warfare are significant factors. Israel just carried out a mission deep into Iran with no losses with the F-35, so it’s definitely top-notch. A tiny drone cannot lift 2,000 lbs. JDAM, let alone carry it hundreds of miles.
Others feel that, at the moment, AI isn’t ready to take combat roles from human decision-making. Given his past concerns about the dangers of AI, I would be surprised to see Elon support giving AI such autonomy over weapon systems. Backpack drones are not going to provide air defense at 35,000 feet. Self-driving cars are still struggling. EMP missiles or jamming can turn drones into falling rocks.
Elon’s argument is similar to the 1960s when there was talk of “missiles replacing aircraft.” Many defense analysts say combat-proven aircraft are still a vital capability in America’s arsenal—one that drones can’t just replace. The “Loyal Wingman” is going to be the way ahead. A crewed fighter “leader” complimented by a swarm of drone wingmen seems to combine the best of both worlds. MUM-T and not just drones alone is the way ahead.
- Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retired) is an Indian Air Force veteran fighter test pilot and former Director-General of the Center for Air Power Studies in New Delhi. He has been decorated with gallantry and distinguished service medals while serving in the IAF for 40 years.
- He tweets @Chopsyturvey
- Follow EurAsian Times on Google News
