For nearly four centuries, Canada lived in a rare, strategic luxury, without having to worry about the security of its borders.
In the 19th and 20th centuries, during the Napoleonic Wars and the two World Wars, when all the European countries were at each other’s throats, Canada, far away in the New World, enjoyed peace and stable borders.
Canada shared its borders only with the friendly US, two oceans – the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, Greenland, and the Arctic’s ‘no-man land’.
This geographic luxury meant that, for centuries, Canada never truly had to think like a hard military power. The Arctic was frozen, impassable, and largely irrelevant. The South was friendly. The threats were distant.
It enjoyed what is referred to as the “peace dividend”.
However, in 2026, this illusion is disappearing fast. The Arctic is melting, and the South is no longer friendly.
The Canadian Prime Minister, in his famous speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January this year, warned that the global order is facing a fundamental “rupture,” not merely a transition.
This ‘rupture’ in the world order, where the dominant superpower (the US) is using economic integration as a “weapon” to coerce middle powers, including Canada, means that Ottawa no longer enjoys the security, stability, and peace it once took for granted.
In an interview with AFP, Canada’s top military officer, Jennie Carignan, said that Canada’s defense of its territory and the Arctic is entering a new phase, and that “geography” no longer offers protection as well as it did in the past.
One consistent worry is that the US, with which Canada enjoyed a special relationship for centuries, is acting more like a threat than an ally.
US-Canada Relationship: From Ironclad Friend To Potential Threat
In 1941, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill described the US-Canada border as “that long frontier from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean, guarded only by neighborly respect and honorable obligations… an example to every country and a pattern for the future of the world.”
Two decades later, US President John F. Kennedy, while addressing the Canadian Parliament, said that “Geography has made us neighbors. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies.”
The special US-Canada relationship also manifested itself in multiple security and economic alliances.
Canada and the US are two of the founding members of NATO. They are also part of the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing alliance, which includes the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK.
Ottawa and Washington have also signed NORAD, a binational defense command for North American airspace and maritime approaches, and Canada is planning to join the Golden Dome project, US President Trump’s ambitious ground- and space-based missile defense system.
However, in the uncertain times of today, it seems that “neighborly respect and honorable obligations” are no longer reliable guarantees, even between the US and Canada.
While President Trump has often threatened to make Canada the 51st state of the United States of America, these threats were earlier dismissed as unrealistic.
However, in the aftermath of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s capture by the US military and Trump’s overt moves to invade Greenland, these threats have assumed a new dimension.
On January 20, Trump posted an image on his social media platform of a map showing Canada and Venezuela covered in the US flag, implying a full American takeover of both countries.
While a US military invasion of Canada is highly unlikely, Ottawa wants to be prepared for the worst.
In January, it was reported that the Canadian Army is preparing a hypothetical model to deal with an American military assault on Canada’s southern border with the US.
The modeling was based on a realistic analysis of the Canadian military strength.
Canada does not have the number of military personnel or the sophisticated equipment needed to fend off a conventional American attack, two senior Canadian government officials told local media in January.
So, the military envisions unconventional warfare in which small groups of irregular military or armed civilians would resort to ambushes, sabotage, drone warfare, or hit-and-run tactics.
One of the officials said the model included tactics used by the Afghan mujahedin in their hit-and-run attacks on Russian soldiers during the 1979-1989 Soviet-Afghan War. These were the same tactics employed by the Taliban in their 20-year war against the U.S. and allied forces that included Canada.
The aim of this strategy would be to impose high casualty figures on the US military, making the occupation of Canada a costly affair.
To address this situation, General Jennie Carignan, Chief of the Defense Staff, has already announced her intention to create a reserve force of volunteers numbering 400,000 or more.
Canada’s armed forces have been forced to “transform” themselves, Carignan said in the AFP interview, calling it a “pivotal moment” for the country.
Another strategy is to tap the support of democratic European countries.
“You know if you come after Canada, you are going to have the world coming after you, even more than Greenland. People do care about what happens to Canada, unlike Venezuela,” Retired Major-General David Fraser, who commanded Canadian troops in Afghanistan alongside the United States, said. “You could actually see German ships and British planes in Canada to reinforce the country’s sovereignty.”
However, Washington’s changing attitude is not Ottawa’s only worry.
The melting ice in the North is perhaps an even bigger challenge, demanding fundamental change in Canada’s posture.
Arctic: A New Challenge For Canada
Climate change, Carignan said, has brought seismic changes, and it is crucial for Canada to “position itself differently” to “ensure that we are in control and taking responsibility for our defense.”
“There has been a modernization of our infrastructure, the pre-positioning of materials and equipment… and an increasing number of exercises” and other military operations in northern Canada.
At the same time, Canada needs to diversify its supply chains, as it has been too reliant on the US for procuring weapons.
Trump’s threats to overtake Greenland by attacking a fellow NATO member have forced both Europe and Canada to diversify their supply chains.
While European countries are focusing on “buy European” under the “Rearm Europe” program, an over US$850 billion rearmament program to strengthen European defense, Canada is enhancing its defense partnerships with the EU.
Canada has formally joined the European Union’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative, a €150 billion rearmament project aimed at enhancing military capacity by 2030 and reducing reliance on the US.
Ottawa is also exploring the purchase of European fighter jets, with France’s Rafale and Sweden’s Gripen as two leading contenders, rather than relying solely on the US.
Canada might also join the European sixth-generation GCAP fighter jet program amid tensions over its F-35 deal with the US.
Canada could join the GCAP as an observer, which would grant it access to the sixth-generation fighter developed by the United Kingdom, Japan, and Italy, according to the Japanese publication Asahi Shimbun.
The GCAP is a combination of Japan’s F-X and the British Tempest fighter jet programs and has been progressing at a decent pace compared to peers like the Franco-German Future Combat Air System (FCAS).
To fast-track defense modernization, Canada has created an agency dedicated to defense investments to strengthen its domestic industrial base. That has required budgetary changes.
Carignan said she is pleased that military spending has reached two percent of GDP, in line with a NATO target.
After the Collapse of the Soviet Union, Canada and European countries cut defense expenditure substantially, leading to decades of underinvestment in defense.
At one point in 2014, Canada was spending less than one percent of its GDP on defense.
However, Carignan said that “sustained and stable investments over the next 10–15 years” are necessary to carry out these transformation and modernization efforts.
Canada aims to invest CAN $500 billion (US $360.1 billion) in defense over the next 10 years.
A large amount from this fund could go into investing in ambitious programs, such as the Golden Dome with the US, and GCAP with the UK, Japan, and Italy.
Under the 2024 defense policy update, “Our North, Strong and Free,” the Canadian military will receive new tactical helicopters, early-warning aircraft, and long-range missiles.
Canada is also planning to buy six ice-capable offshore patrol vessels for the Royal Canadian Navy (plus 2 variants for the Coast Guard), up to 16 P-8A Poseidon Multi-Mission Aircraft, 11+ MQ-9B drones, and Over-the-Horizon Radars (A-OTHR).
“Climate change is rapidly reshaping Canada and reshaping our North,” former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had said while introducing the 2024 defense policy update.
“Our Arctic is now warming at four times the global average, making a vast and sensitive region more accessible to foreign actors who have growing capabilities and regional military ambitions,” stated the policy update document.
The 2024 policy update document also earmarked an additional $8.1 billion Canadian dollars (US$5.9 billion) for military spending to be rolled out over the next five years.
For three centuries, Canada did not have to worry about its borders. That era is now over.
Russia is expanding its Arctic footprint. China calls itself a ‘near Arctic power’. The US is showing renewed interest in dominating the Arctic, with Greenland serving as just one piece of the Arctic jigsaw puzzle.
To protect its interests in this fast-changing world, Canada must reorient and reposition itself and start thinking like a hard power.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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