The dust has still to settle, and the blood continues to boil as India unfolds a slew of harsh responses after the gruesome massacre of innocent holiday makers at Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir.
Practically all world leaders have condemned the attack and stand in solidarity with India. The UN Security Council has passed a resolution, albeit one that was softened by Pakistan’s key ally, China.
There is nationwide anger. There will be repercussions. Indian Security establishment continues to be in a huddle, mulling a variety of options. The armed forces are exercising and preparing for eventualities that the political leadership may choose to pursue.
Internal Security Actions
Internal security in Kashmir has been tightened. Intelligence failures are being investigated, and those responsible will be dealt with appropriately. The pony handlers, shopkeepers, and travel agents are being questioned.
Leads are being established to find the local handlers and terror supporters. Overground workers (OGWs), who are known to help militants or terrorists with logistical support, cash, shelter, and other infrastructure, with which armed groups and insurgency movements are being identified.
OGWs play a vital role in militant attacks, providing real-time information and support to the tactical elements. Overground workers have diversified into other roles such as stone-pelting, mob-rioting, ideological support, radicalisation, and recruitment of militants. A few 1,000 have been detained and are being questioned. The houses of known separatist/militant leaders have been raised to the ground.
Need To Educate The Masses
What also pains is the fact that 26 people were killed by just four terrorists. Those killed included a few military personnel. No one resisted.
In fact, 20 of them lowered their pants when ordered. If one or two or all had resisted and taken on the terrorists with bare hands, the number of deaths may have been much lower.
Only if the bullet goes through the head or heart does death come quickly. The human body is remarkably resilient and can often survive multiple bullet wounds elsewhere. We need to educate the masses that when instant death is facing you, the only way out is to resist and take the terrorist on.
Asim Munir – The Instigator
Addressing the Overseas Pakistanis Convention in Islamabad, General Asim Munir didn’t just speak about Balochistan, but his anti-Hindu diatribe instigated hate among the Pakistani masses.
He quoted Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the founding father of Pakistan, that Hindus and Muslims followed different philosophies, customs, and laws, making national unity impossible.
Munir returned to the very roots of Pakistan’s ideological foundation. “Our religion is different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our thoughts are different, and our ambitions are different. We are two nations, he said.
He called on overseas Pakistanis to pass down this ideology to future generations. “You have to narrate Pakistan’s story to your children so that they don’t forget it,” he added.
Hindu hatred is clearly visible from the modus operandi of the attack. Munir is clearly on the footsteps of Generals Zia-ul-Haq and Musharraf, who ruled Pakistan by spreading religious hate and anti-India sentiment.
Pakistan is in a financial mess. The masses are suffering. The popular leader Imran Khan has been imprisoned on fabricated charges. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif is holding on to his chair at the Pak Army’s mercy. Thus, clearly, the Pakistani Army is calling all the shots without taking the blame for its failures.
Pakistan Army’s Hands Soaked In Blood
Footprints and tell-tale signs of the Pakistani Army’s backing are emerging. Pakistan cannot stand peace and prosperity emerging in Kashmir.
The state has been incident-free after the abrogation of Article 370. Tourist numbers have been going up. Public participation in elections has been very significant.
Chief Minister Omar Abdulla has been working closely with the Central government for the betterment of the masses. Kashmir’s integration with India was not palatable to Pakistan’s ruling establishment (Pak Army).
Pakistan is an ideological state, and the Pakistan army has taken up the mantle of the guardian of the ideology.
Pakistan army claims that India cannot intimidate it. While China has condemned the Pahalgam terror attack, it is very happy that Pakistan keeps bleeding India and prevents it from becoming a challenger in Asia.
India Begins Pressure
India has put the 1960 Indus Water Treaty on hold. All trade between the two nations, including through third countries, has been suspended. It has closed the Integrated Check Post Attari with immediate effect.
All ceremonies at the India-Pakistan border check-posts have been stopped. Pakistani YouTube and other social media channels have been barred in India.
Cricket and other sporting events have been suspended. Pakistani nationals will not be permitted to travel to India under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES). SVES visas already issued to Pakistani nationals in the past are deemed cancelled.
The Defence, Military, Naval, and Air Advisors at the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi have been declared persona non grata. They have a week to leave India. India will withdraw its own Defence, Navy, and Air Advisors from the Indian High Commission in Islamabad.
These posts in the respective High Commissions are deemed annulled. The overall strength of the High Commissions will be reduced to 30 from the current 55 through further reductions by May 1st.
India will use its financial and diplomatic muscle to teach Pakistan a lesson.
The other options with India are to support secessionist forces in Pakistan and more actively support insurgency in Balochistan, Sindh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. India may work closely with Afghanistan and the Pashtuns.
Military Options
Indian armed forces are on high vigil. The Armed Forces have already launched operation “Tikka”. A few terrorists have already been eliminated.
The Indian Army is giving a massive response to unprovoked firing at the Line of Control (LoC). The ceasefire is de facto annulled. The Indian armed forces are already conducting preparatory joint military exercises.
Selective mobilisation of the Armed Forces is possible, albeit to send a strong signal. India could exercise a massive, punishing multi-domain strike. An artillery barrage against terror camps across the border could be launched.
Pakistan will run out of ammunition much faster. Air still remains the best choice for quick response. The Army and Navy could back such action with follow-on events.
It’s Advantage Indian Air Force?
The IAF has nearly 31 fighter squadrons, compared to Pakistan’s 18. Among the 4th-generation aircraft are the Su-3-MKI, Rafale, Mirage 2000, and MiG-29.
Their equivalents with Pakistan are the F-16 and J-10CE. Their fighter aircraft numbers are half of India’s.
The Rafale can carry the Scalp-EG cruise missile (with a 550 km range) and the Meteor AAM (with a 150-200 km range). The Su-30 MKI, upgraded MiG-29, and Mirage-2000 are potent assets.
Pakistan has approximately 500 AIM-120C-5 AMRAAM missiles, with a range of 100 km. The PL-12 range is 70-100 kilometres. There are unconfirmed reports that the PAF has the Chinese export variant of the PL-15E AAM, with a range of 145 km, on J-10s and also the JF-17 Block III.
Still, AAMs, such as the Meteor, give IAF a significant advantage.
The IAF has a substantial inventory of air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs). The BrahMos missile has a range of 450-800 km. The Kh-35 ALCM has a range of 260 kilometres. India has the Spice 2000 glide bombs with an add-on kit for 450/900 kg warheads and CEP of less than 3 metres. Typically, its range is around 60 kilometres.
The “Crystal Maze 2” is a medium-range air-to-surface ballistic missile, also known as “ROCKS,” developed by Israel and used by the IAF. It’s designed for precision strikes on high-value targets, including long-range radars and air defence systems, even in GPS-denied environments.
The missile has a strike range exceeding 250 kilometres and can be equipped with either a penetration or blast fragmentation warhead.
Pakistan has the Maverick air-to-ground (AGM) missile, which has a range of 25 kilometres and a warhead weighing approximately 100 kg. The Ra’ad-II is a standoff and air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) derived from the Hatf-VIII Ra’ad, with a range of 600 kilometres and a 450 kg warhead.
The H-2 and H-4 are SOW (Stand-Off Weapon) precision-guided glide bombs with a range of around 60 km. Both sides also have some other air-launched weapons.
Airfields & Air Defences
IAF has a clear advantage in the number of airfields, including a large number of dual-use airfields. The PAF has 19 flying stations, of which approximately 15 will be activated in the event of operations.
The IAF has a larger inventory of S-400, Barak MR-SAM, Akash, Spyder, S-125, OSA-8, and Igla ground-based air defense (AD) systems. Compared with PAF’s much fewer Spada-2000, Crotale, HQ-9 & HQ-16, Anza MK-II, RBS 70 AD systems.
Force Multipliers and Airborne Troops
While the IAF has six AEW&C and six air refuelers, the PAF has four each of the Saab 2000 Erieye and Shaanxi Y-8 ZDK-03 variants for AEW&C.
These are much less capable than the IAF’s IL-76-based ‘Phalcon’. PAF also has three Dassault Falcon 20 modified for a primary role in electronic warfare. The IAF currently has no dedicated EW platform. Another area of edge for PAF could be encrypted Radio and R/T jamming facilities.
India has a clear advantage in the number of airborne troops. India has 12 C-130 J-40 Special Forces penetration aircraft. India also has a much larger fleet of transport aircraft and helicopters. India is also well-positioned in terms of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and drones.
To Summarize
While a full-scale war between the two nuclear neighbours is unlikely and not desirable, the IAF is well placed to dominate the skies and pin down the PAF.
It can strike terror targets across the border with or without crossing the LoC. IAF is well placed to defend. The S-400 will force the PAF’s force multipliers farther away and render them less effective.
India has a significantly better munitions and missile inventory. In the event of a foolhardy PAF mission, India could deliver a disproportionately powerful response.
India must call Pakistan’s nuclear bluff. As Pakistan feverishly modernizes and increases its nuclear forces, India must do the same for improved deterrence. Punishment should not be a one-time activity; it should be a continuous program from now on.
Make it painful for them to support terrorism. Stop peace overtures like “Aman ki Asha”. Meanwhile, India must pay greater attention to building military capability.
Get the IAF fighter squadron numbers up by making one-time imports. Stop downsizing the Indian Army. The LoC must be sealed more effectively. Pakistani supporters in Kashmir should be dealt with a heavy hand.
Pakistan has also put its military on alert. Border areas are being sensitized by them for a possible Indian attack. However, India must not underestimate the Pakistani military.
Pakistan has suspended the Simla Agreement, which had made the Line of Control (LoC) a temporary border. India can thus work to gain ground in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
Many Indian politicians consider Bangladeshi and Rohingya infiltrators as their political support base and are turning a blind eye to their entry and settlement. It is time to take appropriate actions to curb this trend.
There is a tendency for security forces and intelligence agencies to become less vigilant during extended periods of peace. It happened in Kargil. Kashmir will require continuous vigilance for decades to come.
- Air Marshal Anil Chopra (Retired) is an Indian Air Force veteran fighter test pilot and ex-director-general of the Center for Air Power Studies in New Delhi. He has been decorated with gallantry and distinguished service medals while serving in the IAF for 40 years.
- He tweets @Chopsyturvey
- Follow EurAsian Times on Google News
