The world today is a much dangerous place than it was one decade ago. War has returned to Europe after seven and a half decades of peace, and many frozen conflicts are flaring again.
The strategic restraint that even conflict-ridden countries had been following for decades has been broken. Apart from the Ukraine War, the year 2025 has already seen three short but intense wars (India-Pakistan, Thailand-Cambodia, and Iran-Israel).
Amid these heightened tensions, countries all over the world are increasing defense spending to levels not seen since the Cold War. With rising defense spending comes rising opportunities for defense exports, and several countries are trying to ride this wave.
While traditionally, defense exports have been a bipolar contest between the US and Russia (formerly the Soviet Union), in the last decade, many new players have entered the market to claim a greater share of the pie.
Countries like China, South Korea, and Israel are now established players in the global arms export market, even though their share is minuscule compared to the US.
Now, Turkey, riding on the back of a robust and expanding domestic arms industry, is aiming to break into the top 10 global arms exporters.
Global Defense Spending Reaches Historic Proportions
According to the United Nations, in 2024, Global defense spending reached USD 2.7 trillion.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), in 2024, global defense spending increased to an average of 1.9% of GDP, up from 1.6% in 2022 and 1.8% in 2023.
Furthermore, as per the UN report, in the next ten years, the global defense spending could reach USD 6.6 trillion, registering an average annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.37% per year.
This rising defense spending will provide ample opportunities for several countries to increase their defense exports, as geopolitical reasons and delivery schedule pressure would mean that countries will look for new sources of weapons to safeguard their security.
Turkey: Aiming To Break Into Top 10 Arms Exporters
Turkey’s Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek recently said that Türkiye’s thriving defense sector is poised to benefit as global defense spending is projected to reach USD6 trillion annually by the mid-2030s.
“We hold a significant advantage in defense industry exports,” he said, adding that with nearly 1,400 ongoing projects valued at over USD100 billion, Türkiye is on track to enter the top 10 global defense exporters this year.
Earlier in July, the head of Türkiye’s Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), Haluk Görgün, announced that Türkiye is targeting a position among the world’s top 10 countries in defense industry exports.
Speaking in an interview with Turkish media outlet CNN Turk, Gorgun noted that every step taken in the defense industry builds not only technology but also diplomacy, power, and prestige for Türkiye.
“Türkiye will be in the top 10 in defense exports this year,” Gorgun stated.
He stated that the defense sector in Türkiye now consists of more than 3,500 companies.
Furthermore, he highlighted that Aselsan has risen to 42nd place globally. “Only 7–8 countries have more than three companies in the global top 100,” he said.
Can Turkey Break Into The Top 10?
According to the global arms transfer database, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), between 2020 and 2024, Turkey was already the world’s 11th largest arms exporter.
During this period, Turkey had a share of 1.7% in the global arms exports.
Between 2015 and 2020, Turkey jumped from the world’s 14th largest arms exporter to the 11th largest arms exporter, leaving behind Ukraine, Switzerland, and the Netherlands.
Furthermore, from 2015 to 2024, Turkey’s share in global arms exports increased from 0.8% (2015-2019) to 1.7% (2020-2024), registering a growth of 103%.
Interestingly, of the 10 countries ahead of Turkey, only one country recorded a healthier growth in arms exports during this period.
Italy had a share of 2% in global arms exports during 2015-2019, which increased to 4.8% by 2020-2024, registering a growth of 138%.
If Turkey can maintain the same growth rate in arms exports in the coming years, then Ankara will certainly break into the top 10 arms exporters.
However, this is easier said than done.
Turkey’s nearest competitor is South Korea, which enjoys a healthy 0.5% lead over Ankara. During 2020 and 2024, South Korea had a 2.2% share in global arms exports, as compared to Turkey’s 1.7% share.
Can Turkey Beat South Korea In Arms Exports?
Turkey’s rising share in global arms exports is mainly owing to its drone exports.
Turkey’s Baykar continues to dominate the global drone market. “Since 2018, Türkiye has led the drone market with Baykar, holding 65% of the global share,” Gorgun said in his interview with CNN Turk.
This figure primarily reflects the market for armed and combat drones, where Turkish manufacturers like Baykar (producer of the Bayraktar TB2 and Akıncı models) lead with low-cost, high-performance systems.
The TB2 alone has been exported to over 34 countries, generating significant revenue.
In 2023, Baykar generated 90% of its revenue from international markets, with exports climbing to US$1.8 billion, up from US$1.2 billion in 2022, contributing to Turkey’s overall defense exports.
In the competitive combat and ISR drone market, Turkey has emerged as a world leader (65% share), significantly surpassing traditional arms export leaders, such as the US (8% share) and China (26% share).
In fact, drone exports constituted nearly one-third of Türkiye’s record-breaking US$5.5 billion defense exports in 2023, with Baykar leading the charge.
However, Turkey’s leadership in this domain will face significant challenges in the coming years, particularly from Ukraine and Russia, which have gained valuable experience in real combat scenarios.
A rising star for Turkish arms exports could be its under-development fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, KAAN. Recently, Turkey signed a contract with Indonesia for 48 KAAN fighter jets. Besides, countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Pakistan have also shown interest.
For oil-rich Middle Eastern countries that are unable to buy the F-35, the Turkish-KAAN could be an interesting alternative. However, if the US changes its policy, the combat-tested F-35 will still be the first choice for the Gulf monarchies.
Other notable Turkish defense firms include Aselsan, STM, Roketsan, and Sarsilmaz.
On the other hand, South Korea’s armored vehicles, such as the K2 Black Panther main battle tank, the K21 infantry fighting vehicle, the K200/A1 armored personnel carrier, and the K808/806 White Tiger wheeled armored vehicle, are global hits.
Similarly, the South Korean 155 mm self-propelled howitzer K9 Thunder has been a significant success in the global defense market, accounting for over 50% of worldwide self-propelled howitzer orders.
As of September 2025, it has been exported to 11 countries, with Vietnam becoming the latest confirmed buyer in early 2025. Over 1,700 units have been delivered or are under contract for export, with total export revenue exceeding USD7 billion.
Furthermore, many countries, such as India, Poland, Finland, and Norway, have placed repeat orders for K9 Thunders, underlining its operational success.
Interestingly, Turkey itself signed a deal with South Korea in 2011 for 350 units and has obtained a license to manufacture the T-155 Firtina, a variant of K-9.
India also operates the K9 Howitzer. Larsen & Toubro of India and Hanwha Techwin (HTW) of South Korea signed a contract in July 2017 to manufacture the K9 155mm/52 Caliber Tracked Self-Propelled Howitzer for the Indian Army under the name Vajra-T, an enhanced version of the K9 Thunder.
Interestingly, the South Korean defense firm Hanwha Systems is also referred to as the Asian Lockheed Martin. The strong demand for Hanwha’s advanced land defense systems, including the K9 self-propelled howitzer, the Chunmoo multi-caliber rocket artillery system, and the Skyfall 120-millimeter self-propelled mortar system, is driving its growth.
Last year, Hanwha Aerospace’s exports surged to 4.4 trillion won (US$3.03 billion).
Furthermore, South Korea is also developing its own fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, the KF-21 Boramae. Given that South Korea has already operationalized a 4.5-generation combat aircraft, Seoul appears on track to become 4th country to deploy a stealth fighter, as recently explained by the EurAsian Times.
South Korean firms have also made great strides in the shipbuilding sector, and the country has received orders worth billions of dollars from the US.
Another factor that gives South Korea an advantage over Turkey is its more diversified list of clients. For instance, between 2020 and 2024, as per SIPRI, the three largest importers of South Korean arms were Poland, the Philippines, and India.
Besides, South Korea has exported its arms to Norway, Finland, Estonia, Australia, Egypt, Romania, and Vietnam. This diverse list of countries, spanning Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South Asia, the US, and Southeast Asia, underscores South Korea’s global geopolitical acceptance.
On the other hand, during the same period (2020-2024), the three largest importers of Turkish arms were all Muslim-majority Asian countries.
The United Arab Emirates was the leading recipient of Turkish arms, accounting for 18 percent of Turkey’s exports during this period. Pakistan and Qatar followed, with 10 percent and 9.9 percent, respectively.
In fact, an overwhelming majority of Turkish arms exports have been to Muslim-majority countries.
Due to the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s aggressive Islamist politics, Ankara has limited geopolitical acceptance in Europe, India, and non-Muslim countries.
Furthermore, even within the Muslim world, several countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are worried about Turkey’s rising geopolitical influence, and Ankara can not count them as reliable markets for its weapons.
Due to all the above-mentioned reasons, it will not be easy for Turkey to surpass South Korea in arms exports.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
