By: Air Vice Marshal (R) Prashant Mohan
US President Donald Trump warned that “a whole civilization will die” in Iran if Tehran does not accept US demands.
“A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
Trump did not give details, but he has already said the US military could bomb Iran’s bridges, power plants, and other civilian infrastructure into the “stone age.”
Trump has announced a midnight GMT Tuesday deadline for Iran to end its de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow, strategic waterway used to transport oil and other commodities.
In his Truth Social post, Trump left the door open for a last-hour agreement. “Now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight,” he wrote.
Not So Easy?
On April 3, an F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down over southwestern Iran. In an effort to rescue the downed crew, the US launched an elaborate operation. Both crew members were eventually rescued following a combat search-and-rescue mission (CSAR).
During the rescue mission, one USAF A-10 Warthog providing close air support was hit by Iranian fire and subsequently crashed in or near Kuwait, with the pilot ejecting and being recovered alive by US forces.
In the mission to extract the second missing crew member from the downed F-15E, two transport planes and a few MH-6 Little Bird helicopters tasked with flying out rescue teams could not depart from a remote strip inside Iran.
The three aircraft were reportedly destroyed in situ to prevent them from falling into Iranian hands.
The forces, along with the rescued crew member, were then exfiltrated on three other aircraft sent in as relief. During the same mission, reports indicate that two Black Hawk helicopters involved in the search for the F-15E crew were hit by incoming fire, resulting in injuries, but both helicopters returned to base.
Iran’s Radars Out, Not Really?
On April 1, 2026, the US President told the nation that Iran’s radar was “100 percent annihilated.” On April 3, 2026, Iran shot down an F-15E Strike Eagle.
Amidst the prevailing cacophony, President Donald Trump, using a series of hyperbolic, self-congratulatory lines, bragged that the U.S.–Israel war against Iran is close to being “won.”
On April 5, 2026, President Trump’s celebratory boast about the successful CSAR mission was paired with new expletive-laden threats to escalate strikes on Iran and its infrastructure if it doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz by his deadline.
In combat—whether aerial, on the ground, or maritime—there are losses and associated bragging. Should one blame President Trump for the F-15 loss because he takes credit for the rescue?
In the present circumstances, it is a question worth considering.
Iran claims that the engagement with the F-15 took place over southwestern Iran or near Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, in a “high-threat” environment.
In a typical example of the fog of war, Iranian military and state media claimed the F-15E was downed by an advanced surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, probably tied to the Bavar-373 or a similar platform, using a long-range radar-guided missile such as the Sayyad-4B. Other reports hint at the possible use of MANPADS.
Some analysts opine that the aircraft was allegedly shot down using a layered air defense system that does not depend on radar. This is particularly noteworthy, especially given Chinese claims of such a methodology.
Analysts note that the Iranians have relied more heavily on passive infrared (IR) or electro-optical systems that track heat signatures rather than on radar, reducing their easy detection by U.S. radar warfare assets.
The shooter will brag, while the shot will invariably present a sober version. Such incidents underline the uncertainty and danger of modern air operations, even when one side has overwhelming aerial dominance.
Based on intelligence gathered on enemy air defenses, all offensive strike missions into enemy territory are assigned a minimum altitude that must not be exceeded. If the strike aircraft flies below the prescribed height, it endangers itself to enemy air defenses.
All modern strike aircraft on missions into rival territory carry electronic countermeasures, but those systems are not foolproof against missiles launched from close range or from a concealed position.
The bottom line, however, is that the “unstoppable” US military may have underestimated an opponent it claimed to have “annihilated.”
The Combat Search and Rescue (CSAR)
The two missing F-15 aircrew are safe and have been extracted from harm’s way. The United States, aided by Israel, pulled off a successful combat rescue from inside Iranian territory.
The mission involved two phases: rapid extraction of the pilot shortly after ejection amid firefights, followed by a 48-hour evasion and rescue of the Weapons Systems Officer (WSO) deep in hostile territory near Iran’s Zagros Mountains.
The WSO landed in the mountains of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province. Using his SERE training, he evaded capture for over 24 hours while Iranian state television broadcast a bounty for his capture.
IRGC forces, Basij militia, and Bakhtiari tribesmen hunted him through the mountains, some 200 miles inside Iran. Other than his willpower to survive and faith in being rescued, he had a pistol and an encrypted beacon.
He hiked to a 7,000-foot ridgeline, found a rock crevice, and activated his beacon. The rescue was an elaborate effort supported by a well-coordinated plan. Reports describe a Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC)-led extraction by special operations forces, supported by HH-60W Jolly Green II helicopters, A-10 Warthogs, F-35s, HC-130 tankers, and a full spectrum of cyber, space, and CIA intelligence assets that penetrated Iranian air defenses under missile threats.
Upon intercepting the beacon signal, the CIA initiated a deception campaign to mislead Iranian hunters by faking the WSO’s relocation, buying time for precise location via unique assets.
Israeli intelligence provided real-time tracking of IRGC ground force movements, and the Israeli Air Force halted its own strike campaign for 36 hours to create a rescue corridor.
The rescue force established a forward arming and refueling point on an abandoned airstrip approximately 50 kilometers southeast of Isfahan, deep inside Iranian territory.
Two MC-130J Commando II transport aircraft and an associated MH-6 Little Bird helicopter landed to support the extraction. Both transport aircraft became immobilized.
The operators destroyed them and the MH-6 Little Bird helicopter on the ground to prevent the IRGC from capturing American technology. They then called for more aircraft.
Three additional transports arrived under fire. The WSO and the stranded rescue team were loaded and flown out of Iran.
A key success factor is the US military’s strong commitment to undertaking CSAR and executing it effectively. The United States views CSAR as a core military priority and doctrinal cornerstone for recovering isolated personnel in hostile or contested environments.
Recovery upholds the “no one left behind” ethos. For it to succeed, the US invests heavily in CSAR capabilities, including quality assets, trained and dedicated manpower, joint training, and individual SERE (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, Escape) training for aircrew.
Emphasis is placed on the intelligence-CSAR interface.
The Significance
This incident happened 48 hours after the President told the nation that Iran’s radar was “100 percent annihilated” and that there was “not a thing” Iran could do.
The gap between the political narrative and operational reality was never more apparent. The rescue proves that the IRGC’s ground control in its own provinces is penetrable.
Could the rescue event set the stage for the much-talked-about phase of ground troop insertion? Maybe. The duration of sustainability is debatable. Planners will surely consider that special forces operations—insert, fight, and extract—are far different from a sustained fight for something like Kharg Island, which would involve mass insertion, combat against Iranian ground forces, and holding the objective.
The CSAR may have affected the psychological balance. The CSAR was not entirely one-sided for Iran. A country declared “annihilated” with “no anti-aircraft equipment” brought down a $100 million fighter.
Strategically speaking, Iran forced an intricate CSAR mission on the US and demonstrated its ability to raise the risks of such operations. Only time will tell if Iran has potentially deterred the US and Israel from future deep strikes.
However, Iran has highlighted the very high costs even in “successful” ops.
- Air Vice Marshal (R) Prashant Mohan, a fighter pilot, superannuated from IAF on 31 Mar 25. A Qualified Flying Instructor commanded a frontline fighter squadron and two frontline fighter bases. The Air Officer was India’s Defense and Air Attaché to the UK from May 19 to Oct 22.
- Views Personal of the Author
