“Follow the money” is a catchphrase popularized by the iconic 1976 Hollywood blockbuster “All the President’s Men.” Widely used in the context of political corruption and investigative journalism, the phrase essentially translates to investigating financial transactions, whether potential or real, to uncover information about “behind-the-scenes” deal-making.
This catchphrase can also explain the undue haste and desperation some of the Western media outlets (primarily US media) are showing in pronouncing that Pakistan has indeed shot down one or more Indian Rafale fighter jets in the latest round of hostilities between the two countries.
US media outlet CNN quoted Pakistani defense sources as claiming that they have shot down five Indian fighter jets, including three Rafale jets, one MiG-29, and one Su-30MKI fighter jet.
CNN also quoted an “unidentified” high-ranking French intelligence official saying that one Rafale fighter jet operated by the Indian Air Force was downed by Pakistan.
Reuters quoted two US officials, again unidentified, saying that a top Chinese-made Pakistani fighter plane shot down at least two Indian military aircraft.
“Another official said at least one Indian jet that was shot down was a French-made Rafale fighter aircraft,” the Reuters report said.
Similarly, The New York Times quoted “unidentified” Indian officials, stating that India had lost at least two aircraft. However, the NYT decided not to identify any of the lost aircraft due to a lack of conclusive evidence.
The Washington Post is the latest to join the bandwagon. It also quotes an “unidentified” French expert who says India could have lost a Mirage-2000 and Rafale aircraft, both of French origin.
Intriguingly, the Western media outlets are showing this haste even when there is no concrete evidence provided by Pakistan, and there is no official confirmation from the Indian side. Quoting “unidentified” sources does not help their cause.
Could it be that this narrative is being pushed to promote US fighter jets into the lucrative Indian aerospace market, one of the largest in the world, with many multi-billion-dollar deals anticipated in the next year?
Could this be a well-calculated move to promote American F-35 Lightning II and ‘kill’ prospects of French Rafale fighters?
Notably, Rafale is the frontrunner for the 114 multirole fighters for the Indian Air Force under the MRFA deal. If India lost one or more Rafales during ‘Operation Sindoor,’ then Rafale’s image could take a severe hit, and calls for acquiring 5th-gen fighters like the F-35 could grow louder.
Could there be a sinister agenda behind these seemingly innocent stories based on unidentified sources? And could the target be much wider than the Indian fighter jet market?
Indeed, since US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House, several European countries, as well as Canada, have been seeking alternatives to the F-35 to reduce their critical dependence on US weapon systems.
The EurAsian Times reported in March how Portugal may dump the F-35 deal. Similarly, Canada is considering backing out of the 88 F-35 fighter jets deal.
Again, the EurAsian Times reported in March that newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first foreign visit to France, rather than the US, carried a strategic message, and that Ottawa may explore acquiring French Rafales instead of the F-35.
However, these countries have only a few alternatives to the F-35. The Chinese jets and Russian Su-57 are ruled out for political reasons, leaving them with just three options: The French-made Rafale, the Saab JAS 39 Gripen, and the Eurofighter Typhoon.
However, of the three, Rafale is the ‘least dependent’ on US technology, giving it a critical edge in Europe, where many countries are seeking to reduce their technological dependence on the US.
In this sense, any negative publicity for Rafale is a win for the F-35.
However, before jumping to any conclusion, let us first examine why the available evidence at this juncture is simply insufficient to determine if Pakistan was able to shoot down any Indian Air Force (IAF) Rafale jets.
The Lack Of Cockpit Display Video
Pakistan is claiming that it shot down five IAF fighter jets, including three Rafales, using its J-10CE fighter aircraft and PL-15 missiles. The Pakistani foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, told the National Assembly that the J-10C shot down five Indian fighter jets, three of which were Rafales.
Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, told Reuters on May 8 that the J-10 was used to shoot down three French-made Rafale planes.
However, if that is the case, Pakistan can easily provide irrefutable evidence to support this claim.
If Islamabad had shot down Indian Rafales using Chinese J-10CE fighter jets and PL-15 missiles, as Pakistani government and defense officials are claiming, they could release the cockpit display videos of these engagements.
The question arises, why has Pakistan not released these recordings even 48 hours after the engagement? Could it be that Pakistan has not released these cockpit recordings because it does not have any?
When the Pakistani defense minister, Khawaja Asif, was asked to provide evidence of shooting down five Indian fighter jets on CNN, he absurdly cited the unverified videos circulating on Indian social media accounts showing unidentified debris.
This was a bizarre claim, given that Pakistan can easily release the cockpit display videos of these engagements.
Unidentified Debris In Unverified Videos
The second line of argument is the unverified videos circulating on social media, showing allegedly Indian citizens around the debris of planes shot down by Pakistan.
Firstly, many of these are fake and doctored videos from the past. Many of the videos have already been shown to be from previous incidents.
India’s Press Information Bureau (PIB) also refuted these claims.
“An old image showing a crashed aircraft is being re-circulated by pro-Pakistan handles in various forms in the current context of #OperationSindoor,” Press Information Bureau’s (PIB) Fact Check handle said on X, adding that the image is from an earlier incident involving an Indian Air Force (IAF) MiG-29 fighter jet that crashed in Rajasthan’s Barmer in September 2024.
According to PIB, another image circulating on social media shows a crashed IAF MiG-21 fighter in Moga district in Punjab in 2021.
Additionally, in many videos, the debris shown cannot be conclusively identified. The debris could be from Missiles, large drones, or drop tanks. Even when the debris is from a fighter jet, it cannot be conclusively linked to the Rafale fighter jet.
Photos from the village of Wuyan in Jammu and Kashmir showed debris identified as an external fuel tank for a plane. Trevor Ball, an associate researcher at Armament Research Services, told The New York Times that the tank was likely from a French-made Mirage or Rafale fighter jet, but he could not confirm whether it came from an aircraft that had been hit by enemy fire.
Another video is circulating on social media, showing the underwing section of an aircraft being filmed by locals. However, here again, even if the video is accurate, this part could come from either Mirage-2000 or Rafale.
The Tyranny Of “Unidentified Sources”
Journalism often deals with the tyranny of ‘unidentified sources.’ Many times, government officials speak with journalists only if promised anonymity. Whistleblowers would not risk their safety and career by coming out in the open. They would talk to journalists only when assured that their identities would not be revealed.
However, attributing anything to unnamed sources could also be an easy way out. For instance, in stories with no palpable risk to sources, why would a journalist attribute something to a faceless, nameless source rather than going through the trouble of finding one who can come out in the open?
Sometimes, quoting unidentified sources becomes a cosy pact where nothing is verifiable. We will never know if the ‘unidentified’ experts the journalist quotes are truly “experts.” We will never know how senior the “senior officials” the journalists are quoting are.
Readers will never know if the ‘insiders’ the story quotes are really insiders or simply ‘outsiders.’
Readers will not know what hidden agendas these unnamed officials could have? A score to settle, a secret axe to grind?
Reuters quotes two U.S. officials who say India lost at least two fighter jets. Another unnamed official is certain that one of the downed aircraft was Rafale.
If these unnamed officials are from India, I can understand why they would like anonymity. However, I fail to understand why US officials want anonymity in this story. After all, no US-made jet is involved.
The only reason they would prefer anonymity is that they don’t want to put their reputation at risk, so if the story is later discredited, it will not harm their reputation.
Another reason could be that they are in a position where they have hidden interests, and they don’t want them to be revealed.
From The ‘War Of Currents’ To ‘War Of Aircraft’
There is an interesting anecdote here.
In the late 19th century, an intense rivalry was brewing between Thomas Edison and Nikola Tesla. Thomas Edison had allied with J.P. Morgan, the most powerful banker in the US, to electrify the entire country with direct current. Tesla, on the other hand, banked on the alternating current.
Edison knew his system was less efficient. However, he utilized the power of mass media to delay the inevitable: the adoption of the alternating current.
He skillfully used some of the accidents involving ‘alternating current’ to create mass hysteria through the media that ‘direct current,’ though less efficient, is safer.
The media only reported on accidents involving alternating current. However, the editorial line and sensationalism also had a sinister agenda: to promote Edison’s ‘direct current’ system over Tesla’s more efficient ‘alternating current.’
Conclusion: No Need For Undue Haste
None of this is to claim that India could not lose a Rafale fighter jet in an air duel. Aviation history is replete with examples of far more capable aircraft losing dogfights to less capable ones.
However, the evidence available in the public domain at the moment is insufficient to conclusively prove that India lost a Rafale and Pakistan shot it down.
Speaking in the Pakistan parliament, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif claimed that 75-80 Indian aircraft took part in Operation Sindoor.
If this claim is correct, the sheer number of Indian fighter jets airborne during those crucial 25 minutes of operation means a mishap or friendly fire can’t be rejected outright. A shootdown looks unlikely since most attacks were standoff attacks.
For now, it appears just like Pakistan and China, American media is celebrating the fall of Rafale fighters.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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