As one writes this, the news is that even after the killing of its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in the joint U.S.-Israel strikes launched on February 28, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has vowed to launch the “most devastating offensive operation in the history of the Islamic Republic” against US bases all over the Middle East and Israel.
It has already launched retaliatory strikes against US military installations and allies in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE. It has also hit Israel.
But how long can it sustain the war against the US and Israel? Does it have the required firepower and the domestic support?
This is the question on the minds of strategic experts all over the world. US President Donald Trump seems to believe that operations could end in two to three days if the Iranian regime is effectively decapitated. But as his declared goal and that of Israel is to change the regime and facilitate a new one, he has also indicated that the US is prepared to “go long” and continue strikes for “as long as necessary”. And that means he does recognize the capacity and potential of the Islamic regime to fight long.
It is well accepted by experts that Iran has been modernizing its military arsenal through a strategy focused on indigenous production, reverse engineering with Russian help, and acquiring Russian/ Chinese arms.
Iran is said to possess the largest ballistic missile inventory in the Middle East, with over 3,000 missiles. This includes short-range (SRBM) and medium-range (MRBM) systems like the Shahab-3, Sejjil, and the newer long-range, high-precision, and solid-fuel rockets like the Khorramshahr-4, Fattah-1 (hypersonic), and Kheibar Shekan, which can reach up to 2,000 km—putting all U.S. bases in the Middle East and parts of Europe within range.
Besides, Iran has become a significant drone power, producing a wide range of drones (e.g., Shahed-136, Mohajer-6, Ababil) with applications in reconnaissance, kamikaze attacks, and surveillance. It has a vast fleet of one-way attack drones (loitering munitions) and surveillance UAVs, often used in “swarming” tactics to overwhelm sophisticated U.S. and allied air defenses.
Iran has also been enhancing its asymmetric warfare capabilities, aimed at enhancing regional deterrence despite severe international sanctions. These include what are said to be “mosquito” tactics of using fast attack boats, midget submarines, and advanced anti-ship cruise missiles (like the Chinese-designed YJ-12) to threaten US warships and block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil artery.
The Iranian Navy is capable of implementing its “Sea Denial” strategy, with its fast-attack speedboats (e.g., the 110-knot Heydar 110) armed with missiles and anti-ship mines.
It has developed indigenous submarines (Fateh and Ghadir classes) to enhance its undersea capabilities. And, it is said to have converted merchant ships into specialized drone carriers, such as the IRIS Shahid Bagheri, to launch and support UAV operations at sea.
Above all, collaboration with Russia has been one of the most important factors in upgrading Iran’s military arsenal in recent years. The two signed a 20-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty on January 17, 2025, that formalizes cooperation in defense, technology, and security.
Of course, this treaty lacks a mandatory mutual defense clause, allowing both nations to maintain strategic flexibility and avoid being legally bound to join each other’s wars. That explains why the Russian response in the face of present attacks on Iran has only been limited to “condemnation” of the attacks as a “pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression” against a sovereign U.N. member state, and that these attacks risk triggering a “humanitarian, economic, and possibly radiological catastrophe”.
But, the 2025 treaty between the two countries legitimized their “strategic alliance” and reciprocal “technology acquisition and exchanges”.
Iran has supplied thousands of Shahed-131/136 loitering munitions to Russia for fighting the Ukrainians. So much so that Russia is said to have localized the production of Iranian-designed drones at a facility in Alabuga, Tatarstan, now producing thousands per month. Iran is also believed to have transferred short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine.
In return, and this is important to note, Russia has reportedly bolstered Iran’s air defenses with S-300 and “potentially” S-400 systems, apart from delivering Yak-130 training jets and Mi-28 attack helicopters. A long-discussed deal for 48 Su-35 fighter jets remains in progress.
Apparently, in December, in what was said to be a secret deal by the Financial Times, Iran had finalized a €500 million ($734 million) weapons deal with Russia to rebuild and modernize its air defense network. The agreement included 500 launch units of the advanced 9K333 Verba man-portable air defense system (MANPADS) and 2,500 9M336 missiles over three years, significantly strengthening Iran’s short-range, low-altitude protection against drones, helicopters, and low-flying aircraft.
The Verba has been described as one of Russia’s most modern air defence systems, which would give Iran increased capabilities to target low-flying aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, and drones.
Manufactured by the Russian military company KBM, the Verba system comprises two parts: the missiles and the launcher. The launcher is shoulder-fired, designed to be operated by small mobile teams that can quickly create dispersed air defence coverage without relying on fixed radar systems.
The missile can destroy targets flying at altitudes between 10 metres and 4.5 kilometres, travelling at about 600 metres per second.
A unique capability of the Verba is reportedly its ability to track targets by identifying heat signatures across multiple infrared and ultraviolet spectrums. Its three thermal trackers can detect heat emitted by jet engine exhaust or the sun-heated exterior of an aircraft, it is said.
However, the most significant aspect of Iran’s partnership with Russia has been Moscow’s reported help to Iranian engineers, which involves reverse engineering of the seized Western military products in the war in Ukraine. The captured weapons in Ukraine have proved to be a windfall for the sanctions-crippled defence-technological industrial base (DTIB), it is said.
As Sine Ozkarasahin, an analyst in the security and defense program at the Istanbul-based think tank, the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, has written, Russia has been sending sophisticated Western technologies captured on the battlefield to Tehran, including combat-proven assets, such as the Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft systems. So much so that Tehran’s access to such systems has also been believed to have bolstered the capabilities and technological know-how of Iran’s proxy militias in the Middle East, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and rebels in Yemen.
Incidentally, since Iran’s ties to the West were abruptly cut off in 1979 with the fall of the Shah, a significant share of Iran’s portfolio of reverse-engineered weapons is said to be based on designs of Western systems.
One of Tehran’s top military export products, Toophan, is said to be an unlicensed replica of the American anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) BGM-71 TOW. Similarly, the Shahed line is also based on Western designs, such as the US RQ-170 Sentinel reconnaissance drone. The drone in question was captured in December 2011, following a suspicious crash that occurred soon after it entered Iranian airspace.
According to Ozkarasahin, numerous Western military systems have ended up in the possession of Iran, which has taken hold of hundreds of American arms from conflict zones.
“Iranian forces conducted four significant thefts worth $200,000 dollars in Iraq and Syria between 2020 and 2022. While not all captured systems were disclosed, the thefts included high-destruction military assets, such as 40 mm high-explosive grenades, used by US Special Forces.
“Now, the Ukrainian battlefield presents similar risks. Russia already began cargo flights carrying stolen military equipment from Ukraine as early as the summer of 2022.
According to US allegations—which were also echoed in Russian media outlets—Moscow flew $141 million in cash and various Western military assets (a British NLAW, a US Javelin ATGM, and a Stinger anti-aircraft missile) to Iran in return for 160 Iranian UAVs”.
Ozkarasahin also notes the Chinese role in helping the Iranians’ reverse-engineering.
“Besides hunting down critical Western systems in conflict zones, such as Syria and Iraq, Iran has also benefited greatly from Chinese knock-off components of Western systems. Beijing is providing Tehran with designs for critical platforms that help drive the Iranian DTIB forward despite Western sanctions. The engines used in Iranian loitering munitions seen in Ukraine were built in China and are a direct copy of a German product. This particular example illustrates the intertwined nature of the Chinese–Iranian military partnership, as well as the role of Beijing’s military transactions with the West as the driver behind Iran’s DTIB”, he points out.
Viewed thus, seemingly in its last few days of survival, the Islamic regime is not going down without a good fight. And ironically, it is fighting with the successfully reverse-engineered Western/American weapons. In that sense, it is challenging the US on its own terms.
- Author and veteran journalist Prakash Nanda is Chairman of the Editorial Board of the EurAsian Times and has been commenting on politics, foreign policy, and strategic affairs for nearly three decades. He is a former National Fellow of the Indian Council for Historical Research and a recipient of the Seoul Peace Prize Scholarship.
- CONTACT: prakash.nanda (at) hotmail.com
