A week is a long time in politics. Long enough to shift narratives from domestic failures to international successes. President Tayyip Erdogan started the week with some of the worst political protests Turkey has seen in years; he is ending the week with remarkable success on multiple geopolitical fronts.
Erdogan is set to host Ukraine-Russia peace talks, Pakistan has publicly thanked Turkey for mediation in the brief India-Pakistan war, the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) has decided to disband after nearly four decades of armed struggle against Ankara, and the US has announced to lift sanctions from Syria, further strengthening Ankara’s influence in Damascus.
With success on multiple geopolitical fronts, Erdogan has once again managed to shift focus away from domestic issues at a time when Turkey was facing unprecedented political protests.
Throughout March, April, and the first weeks of May, thousands of people protested in Turkey against the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who was fast emerging as Erdogan’s main political rival.
Erdogan’s critics say that Imamoglu’s arrest on corruption charges is politically motivated.
Notwithstanding some of the largest protests Turkey has witnessed in recent history, Erdogan has leveraged Ankara’s growing influence, from the Middle East to Eastern Europe, South Asia to Central Europe, to once again shift the narrative and consolidate more power in his hands.
While Erdogan tasted success on multiple fronts, his most significant victory has to be the announcement by the PKK to disband, ending nearly four decades of conflict and bloodshed.
PKK Disbands
Earlier this week, the PKK announced that it has decided to disarm and disband, ending nearly 40 years of bloody conflict in Turkey.
The conflict, which has cost over 40,000 lives, was initially aimed at creating a separate state for Turkey’s Kurdish minority, which is nearly 20 percent of the Turkish population. However, the group later moderated its position, claiming it is fighting for more autonomy and safeguarding Kurdish rights.
The group is outlawed in Turkey, the EU, the UK, and the US. Also, its influence extends far beyond Turkey’s borders. The PKK group has a strong influence in the Kurdish-dominated regions of Syria and Iraq as well.
In February, Abdullah Ocalan, the 76-year-old leader of the movement, who has been in solitary confinement in Turkey since 1999, wrote an open letter to his supporters, asking them to disarm and disband.
“There is no alternative to democracy in the pursuit and realization of a political system. Democratic consensus is the fundamental way,” Ocalan wrote in his letter.
Now, some three months after that appeal, the PKK has decided to disband. If executed well, the move can boost Erdogan’s support among Kurdish groups, which could be crucial in Erdogan’s re-election bid in the 2028 presidential elections.
Impact On Syria
The decision by the PKK to disband could also impact neighboring Syria, where the country’s northeast is largely controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led military force often at loggerheads with the Turkish state.
Ankara has repeatedly clashed with the SDF over the last decade. The SDF is controlled and led by YPG (People’s Protection Units), a Kurdish militia force that Turkey views as a terrorist group and as a Syrian arm of the PKK.
The YPG and PKK, undoubtedly, have strong links. Thus, the decision by the PKK to disarm and disband will likely have an impact in Syria as well.
Analysts believe that this will further isolate the SDF, already under pressure since Syria’s new Turkey-backed regime came to power after overthrowing the government of President Bashar al-Assad in December last year.
The US has supported the SDF in its fight against ISIL. However, there are reports that Trump might fully withdraw US troops from Syria, abandoning its Kurdish allies.
This will further increase the Turkish influence in Syria and help establish Ankara as a regional superpower.
US To Lift Syria Sanctions
In another significant development, President Trump announced that the US would lift all sanctions on Syria, following his talks with President Erdogan.
According to media reports, Turkey facilitated back-channel talks between the US and Syria to normalize relations between the two countries.
On May 14, Trump met Syria’s president, Ahmed al-Shara, in Saudi Arabia. Since Turkey is the primary backer of Ahmed al-Shara’s government in Syria, Ankara is set to benefit from the lifting of sanctions against Syria.
Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks
This week, Turkey also hosted the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Initially, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, and even President Trump were expected to attend. However, Putin and Trump pulled out at the last moment.
Zelensky decided to send his defense minister.
The peace talks are significant even without the high-profile presence of Trump, Putin, and Zelensky, as these are the first direct talks between Ukraine and Russia since May 2022. With the resumption of these peace talks, Turkey’s profile and role in Eastern Europe are set to expand.
By hosting these peace talks, Turkey wants to establish itself as a key player in the post-war security architecture of the European continent.
Pakistan Thanks Erdogan
While expanding its role in European politics, Turkey is also strengthening its leadership in Asia.
This week, following the announcement of a ceasefire between Pakistan and India, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly thanked Erdogan for his role in promoting peace in South Asia.
“I am particularly grateful for His Excellency’s (Erdoğan) constructive role and concerted efforts in promoting peace in South Asia,” said Sharif. “May the bonds between Pakistan and Türkiye continue to grow stronger as we work together to build a bright and prosperous future for our two countries and their peoples.”
Even though India has rejected claims that any third party mediated the ceasefire talks, the Pakistani prime minister’s statement highlights Ankara’s growing influence in the South Asian country.
In his statement, Sharif thanked the US, China, and Turkey for mediating the ceasefire talks.
Analysts believe that by supporting countries like Azerbaijan and Pakistan, in their respective conflicts with Armenia and India, Ankara wants to establish itself as the leader of the Sunni Muslim world.
With geopolitical victories on multiple fronts, from Syria to Ukraine-Russia peace talks, and from Pakistan’s Prime Minister publicly thanking Turkey to the decision by the PKK to disband, Erdogan is wrapping a hugely successful week, which is set to boost his domestic appeal at a challenging time on the home front.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
