The US and Iran might have reached a fragile ceasefire agreement, but the NATO alliance could feel the repercussions of the war for months to come.
According to reports, Washington is considering a plan to penalize certain NATO countries that, according to President Donald Trump, failed to support the United States and Israel during the war with Iran.
Interestingly, NATO, widely recognized as the world’s largest, oldest, and strongest military alliance, is unraveling in real time, even as it just marked its 77th anniversary last week.
NATO came into existence on April 4, 1949, when 12 nations signed the landmark defense agreement. Currently, 32 nations are members of NATO.
However, the Iran War has tested the alliance’s cohesion, purpose, and relevance to the core.
Apparently, collective defense is NATO’s most fundamental principle. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states that an armed attack against one NATO member shall be considered an attack against them all.
However, in the last seven decades, NATO’s Article 5 has been invoked only once, following the 9/11 terror attacks on the US in 2001.
US President Donald Trump expected to invoke NATO’s collective security clause in the Iran War as well; however, he faced concerted pushback from European countries, exposing the emerging fault lines in the transatlantic alliance.
Expressing his frustration with the European countries, Trump said NATO’s refusal to cooperate with US military operations in Iran was a “test” for the security alliance and that he would “remember” their response.
“That’s why I’m so disappointed in NATO. Because this was a test for NATO,” Trump said on March 26 during a Cabinet meeting at the White House. “We’re going to remember.”
Now that a ceasefire is in force, Trump has decided to make good on his promise.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump is now preparing to impose penalties on the countries that did not support the US war effort in the Middle East.
According to the report, one proposal includes potentially withdrawing U.S. troops from European countries that Washington views as not providing sufficient assistance in the conflict with Iran.
These forces are proposed to be redeployed to countries that provided active support to U.S. forces.
The newspaper notes that Trump’s plan has received support in the highest echelons of the government. For one, the plan is much less drastic than Trump’s often-repeated threat of pulling out of NATO altogether.
At the same time, the administration believes that some punitive action is necessary to make clear that failing to support the US at a critical time will have consequences, and that US military support cannot be one-sided.
Similarly, those NATO members who did actually support the US must be rewarded.
Therefore, the plan is to move US troops from countries that did not support Washington to countries that did.
At present, around 84,000 U.S. troops are stationed at various bases across Europe. These military bases have been central to European defense and security since the end of the Second World War.
However, in the wake of Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, these US military bases in Europe have assumed a new significance and criticality.
In addition to redeploying military contingents, the US is also seriously considering closing a US military base in one of the countries that was most vocal in its opposition to the war in Iran, possibly France or Spain.
So, which European countries could be penalized and which are set to benefit in the wake of the Iran War and Trump’s intentions to rebalance US troop deployment on the European continent?
Which NATO Countries Supported the US in the Iran War?
Unsurprisingly, the US got the most vocal support from the countries that are geographically closer to Russia and are paranoid about Russian aggression, especially in the aftermath of the Ukraine War.
These are the countries that believe that they depend on the US for their security and survival.
For them, Russia is not a distant threat but an immediate and imminent danger.
So, the countries in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states.
“The Baltic states, Poland, and the Czech Republic have voiced strong support for the strikes, citing Iran’s supply of drones to Russia,” noted NATO Watch on March 9.
Notably, these countries are demonstrating their reliability as NATO partners in other ways.
For instance, Trump and his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, have often complained that NATO countries in Europe do not spend enough on defense.
The US has been exhorting them to spend at least 5% of the GDP on defense and security-related infrastructure, out of which 3.5% should be spent exclusively on defense.
Here, too, it is the Eastern European and Baltic states who are taking the lead.
Last year, Poland spent the highest share of its GDP (4.8%) on defense.
Poland was followed by the Baltic states of Lithuania (4%) and Latvia (3.7%).
Further, Estonia and Norway spent 3.3% of their GDP on defense.
Greece and Romania also supported the US War. They provided logistical access and defensive contributions, such as frigates and F-16s, to Cyprus.
Apart from these countries, Canada offered strong public support, and the UK authorized use of British bases (after an initial delay) for US strikes on Iranian missile sites; the UK also deployed defensive assets, such as HMS Dragon, jets to Qatar, and air defenses in the region.
Some other countries supported the war effort only partially.
For instance, Italy, Germany, and France allowed limited use of airspace and access to military bases. Germany kept Ramstein Air Base fully available for US logistics, force projection, and drone operations.
Italy allowed general US base access and overflights. On March 27, Italy refused permission for US bombers to land; however, the decision was more procedural than political, as under bilateral agreements, combat-related requests must be approved in advance.
France permitted US aircraft to operate from French bases to support Gulf partners. At the same time, Paris barred the use of its airspace for direct use in strikes on Iran. It also imposed conditions on some overflights and blocked certain US supply planes to Israel.
NATO Countries That Opposed the War
Some NATO countries also opposed the US War in Iran.
Spain was perhaps the most vocal opponent and a clear outlier. Madrid closed airspace to US military aircraft involved in Iran operations and denied use of key joint bases, such as Naval Station Rota and Morón Air Base, for any Iran-related actions. It even called the war “unjustifiable” and “illegal.”
Apparently, President Trump has other complaints with Spain as well. It remains the only NATO country that has refused to commit to spending 5% of its GDP on defense by 2035.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez publicly called the 5% target “unreasonable” and “counterproductive.” He argued that it would require cuts to social spending and be incompatible with Spain’s welfare-state priorities.
Spain is also historically one of the lowest spenders on GDP in the NATO bloc.
Apart from Spain, Turkey also opposed the war. However, given Turkey’s religious demography and geography in the Middle East, even sharing a long border with Iran, its nuanced position on the war was expected and did not come as a surprise to the US.
So, in all probability, if Trump is serious about his suggestions, then the US could even close its military base in Spain.
Furthermore, the US might relocate some soldiers from France and Germany to the Baltic states and the countries in Eastern Europe, such as Poland and the Czech Republic, which not only supported the Iran War but are also spending heavily on defense.
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