As the threat of another war looms in the Middle East, one question that is perplexing everyone is how Iran, which has been systematically weakened by decades of sanctions and Israel’s multiple wars in the region following the October 2022 Hamas attack, is able to stand against the combined might of the US and Israel.
During the 12-day war in June 2025, Israel maintained complete air superiority over Iranian territory. Iran has no air force worth its name, and its air defense systems were systematically degraded by Israeli air strikes. Israel has also decapitated Iranian military leadership, eliminating top generals in precision air strikes.
Besides, one of the main vectors of Iranian bargaining, its several proxies in the region, the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah, have all been weakened, and its staunchest regional ally, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, has fled the country and is living in exile in Russia.
Moscow, meanwhile, is fully occupied in the Ukraine War, effectively leaving Tehran with no friends with the sole exception of China, which, we all know, will only extend diplomatic and some economic assistance to Iran in case of a military conflict.
To make things worse, the country’s currency has collapsed, inflation is at an all-time high, and the Iranian regime is facing one of the most serious internal challenges to its authority.
Israel has been arguing that Iran is at its weakest and is ripe for a regime-change operation aided by external military intervention.
On the other side is the combined might of the regional military hegemon, Israel, and the global superpower, the US, aided by a network of American strategic allies, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Jordan, and Bahrain, along with nearly 18 US military bases.
The US has also deployed its carrier strike group, USS Abraham Lincoln, and rushed fighter jets, guided missile destroyers, and its most advanced air defense systems to the region.
And yet, military experts are warning Washington against any misadventure in the Persian Gulf.
William Hartung, Senior Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, has warned that Iran could turn into another Iraq War for the US.
“It’s reminiscent of the beginning of the Iraq War, when they said it’s going to be a cakewalk. It’s not going to cost anything. A couple of trillion dollars, hundreds of thousands of casualties, many U.S. veterans coming home with PTSD, a regime that was sectarian that paved the way for ISIS — it couldn’t have gone worse. This is a different beginning, but the end is uncertain, and I don’t think we want to go there.”
Georg Spöttle, a Hungarian Security Analyst, cautioned that Washington may opt for a “warning airstrike” but should avoid a long war that the US public “would not accept.”
The question is, why, despite the disproportionate difference in military capabilities, an economy that is on life support, and a deeply unpopular regime, Tehran still presents a formidable challenge to the US-Israel combine?
Actually, a combination of geographic, geopolitical, and military factors makes Tehran a force to be reckoned with.
Geographic Factors That Favor Iran
Iran sits in close proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway crucial for the world’s oil supply. The oil demands of nearly one-fifth of the world’s population pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
In case of a military conflict, Iran could easily enforce its closure. This threat has been repeated by Iranian political and military authorities for years.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz could be achieved through the use of submarine mines, cruise missiles, coastal defense systems, and high-speed boats.
Furthermore, countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq also depend on the Strait of Hormuz for supplying their oil and gas to their customers.
The vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz is a key reason why all regional partners of the US are opposed to a military intervention in Iran.
Iran could also destabilize the Red Sea shipping lanes through its Houthi proxies.
This could impact global trade and energy security, thus entangling the whole world in the conflict.
However, Iran also has considerable military means to inflict pain on the US and Israel.
Iran’s Military Arsenal
Iran’s biggest military arsenal is its missile and drone capabilities.
Iran has a formidable arsenal of ballistic and even hypersonic missiles, apart from lethal long-range drones.
During the 12-day war with Israel, Tehran launched over 500 missiles towards Israel, many of which bypassed Israel’s advanced, multilayered air defense systems and hit Israeli territory.
Iran could also hit US military bases in the region.
The US has deployed over 40,000 soldiers to the region, stationed at nearly 18 military bases.
“Iran has the ability to shut down the region’s energy production whenever it wants. Iran can cause devastating damage to U.S. military bases, which could result in the deaths of hundreds or even thousands of American soldiers. And Iran could carry out decisive attacks on Israel that would weaken its ability to survive and make the land unlivable for millions of its residents,” Scott Ritter, Former UN Weapons Inspector and US Marine Corps Intelligence Officer, warned.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said Iran possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, with thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles ranging from a few hundred kilometers to as far as 2,000-2,500 kilometers.
Some of these systems can reach Israel and parts of southeastern Europe. Most US military bases in the region are within range of these missiles.
In 2025, prior to the 12-day war, Iran’s ballistic missile inventory was estimated at between 2,500 and 3,000. It used over 500 missiles during the war.
However, Tehran ramped up its missile production after the war.
In October, CNN reported that Iran purchased sodium perchlorate from China to replenish its missile stocks.
According to military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai, Iran is now producing hundreds of ballistic missiles every month.
Iran has also upgraded its missiles since the June 2025 war.
“The reported steps include shifting from liquid fuel to solid fuel to cut launch preparation time from hours to minutes and reduce its intelligence signature, ramping up mass production of Kheibar and Fattah missiles, improving missile accuracy using technological components, and acquiring satellite-based intelligence,” the Jerusalem Post reported.
The missiles that pose a threat include the Shahab series, including Shahab-3 and Kheibar Shekan, with a range of about 2,000 kilometers and warheads reported to weigh between 700 and 1,000 kilograms of explosives.
Iran’s Fattah 1 and Fattah 2 missiles are claimed to reach hypersonic capabilities, with sharp aerodynamic maneuverability, and a warhead of about half a ton.
The Sejjil series is described as a two-stage, solid-fuel ballistic missile designed for short-warning launches from a bunker, with a warhead reported to range from 500 to 1,000 kilograms of explosives.
The Khorramshahr missile, according to Iranian reports, carries an especially heavy warhead, averaging around 1,500 kilograms, and is considered one of the most accurate missiles in Iran’s arsenal.
Iran also has cruise missiles such as Kh-55: an air-launched nuclear-capable weapon (up to 3,000 km), and the advanced anti-ship missile the Khalid Farzh (about 300 km), capable of carrying a 1,000 kg warhead.
Iran also has thousands of long-range Shahed drones, which have been used by Russia against Ukraine, and the Mohajer series of drones.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Iran’s missile forces compensate for its weak air force by enabling long-range strikes through short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, land-attack cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Iran also has a very capable Navy, focusing on asymmetric warfare and regional dominance in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. It uses a two-branch structure—the traditional Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN) and the aggressive Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN)—utilizing fast-attack boats, submarines, and drones to counter larger adversaries.
Iran has focused on small, fast-attack boats, drones, and mines to disrupt shipping and threaten larger warships.
According to Global Firepower’s 2024 report, Iran’s navy ranks 37th out of 145 naval forces worldwide.
Iranian naval fleet includes modern destroyers such as Zulfiqar, Sahand, and Zagros. Alphand and Moj-class frigates.
However, the most notable component of Iran’s fleet is its submarine force, which comprises 27 submarines.
Among them are three Tareq-class (Kilo-class) diesel-electric submarines, which have been employed in strategic operations such as mine-laying and launching cruise missiles. Its Fateh-class submarines (2) and Ghadir-class mini-submarines (23) are maneuverable in shallow waters and are equipped with torpedo and missile launch tubes.
Global Firepower estimates that Iran’s navy comprises 109 assets, including 25 submarines, 21 patrol vessels, 7 frigates, 3 corvettes, and 1 mine warfare ship.
In the narrow waters of Hormuz, Iran could employ asymmetric warfare, using its fast boats, cruise missiles, drones, and mini-submarines to overwhelm the enemy’s larger, slower warships and dominate the crucial choke points.
It is worth remembering that in March 2025, the US launched Operation Rough Rider against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Houthis had no naval force and depended on drones and rudimentary missiles. Yet, they were able to destabilize the Red Sea shipping lanes.
The US operation lasted three months, cost over USD 1 billion, and the US lost two F/A-18 Hornet jets and seven MQ-9 drones, yet they were not able to subdue the Houthis.
Imagine how much damage Iran could inflict on the US and Israel.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
- VIEWS PERSONAL OF THE AUTHOR
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
