In geopolitics, there are no permanent friends or foes, only permanent interests. Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two Arab countries that were literally at war till four years ago, have signed a historic agreement to build a high-speed railway network connecting the capitals of two of the most energy-rich kingdoms in the Middle East.
According to an official Saudi media statement on December 8, the “high-speed electric passenger railway” would connect Riyadh’s King Salman International Airport with Doha’s Hamad International Airport.
The high-speed rail network will span 785 km, and the Saudi cities of Al-Hofuf and Dammam are also expected to be included.
The train would reach speeds exceeding 300km/h (186mph), and the trip between the two capitals would take roughly two hours.
A direct flight between the cities takes about 90 minutes.
The announcement came during a meeting of the Qatari-Saudi Coordination Council in Riyadh attended by Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
In a joint statement published by the official Saudi news agency SPA, both sides praised the strength of their economic ties. They noted a sharp rise in bilateral trade, which reached US$930.3 million in 2024, a 634% increase from 2021 (excluding re-exported goods).
The project is expected to be completed in six years. It will serve 10 million passengers per year, the statement said.
Furthermore, the ambitious project can create nearly 30,000 jobs across both countries.
It is expected to make an economic impact of nearly SAR 115 billion (USD 30.64 billion).
The project marks the latest in a series of moves that have drastically improved ties between the two Gulf countries in recent years, following a diplomatic and financial boycott that lasted nearly four years.
The Saudi-Led Boycott Of Qatar
In 2017, four nations, led by Saudi Arabia and including its allies, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt, cut all diplomatic and transport ties with Qatar.
The boycott was so strong that these countries even denied Qatar the use of their air, land, and maritime space.
Qatar is bordered by the UAE to the south and Saudi Arabia to the west and North, forcing the energy-rich but tiny Arab Kingdom to use substantially longer air and maritime routes for all trade.
In return for suspending the criplling boycott, Saudi Arabia demanded that Doha fulfill its 13 demands, which would have been equivalent to an unconditional surrender.
Riyadh demanded that Qatar completely shut down the Al Jazeera media group, which is based in Doha.
Qatar was to suspend all contact with the Muslim Brotherhood, a radical movement behind the Arab Spring revolts in many Arab countries. The group has often been accused of propagating an extremist pan-Islamist ideology, and it is banned in many Muslim and Arab countries for its alleged links to terrorist groups.
Saudi Arabia alleged that through its financial support to the Muslim Brotherhood, and sophisticated media propaganda through the Al Jazeera media network, Qatar was destabilizing the Arab governments friendly to Riyadh.
Furthermore, Qatar was to stop supporting radical Syrian Islamist rebel groups, such as the al-Nusra Front.
Qatar was likewise supposed to hand over all individuals accused of “terrorism,” a term which was not defined and left open-ended.
Finally, Qatar was to suspend practically all diplomatic and commercial contact with Iran, the arch-rival of Saudi Arabia.
Clearly, accepting these demands would have amounted to a substantial compromise of Qatari sovereignty. In practice, this would have meant no more independent foreign policy.
However, Qatar received immediate support not only from Iran and Turkey but also from Western governments, including the US.
Qatar is a close US ally and hosts the largest US military base in the Middle East, with over 10,000 US troops stationed there.
Besides, not many countries wanted to spoil relations with a country that is one of the largest producers of natural gas, a substantial investor in financial and real estate markets, and a big buyer of arms.
Additionally, Qatar has deep pockets, and it easily weathered the financial costs of taking a longer air and maritime route.
Even though the boycott was not producing the desired results, Saudi Arabia continued its policy of isolating Doha and forcing it to meet its demands.
The boycott continued for the full four years, until 2021.
Relations were fully restored in January 2021 after a summit in the Saudi desert city of AlUla.
Since then, the two countries have maintained diplomatic and trade relations; however, the agreement to build a high-speed rail line underscores a new warmth and trust between the two energy-rich Arab kingdoms.
So, what explains this newfound bonhomie between Saudi Arabia and Qatar?
The Changing Geopolitical Landscape
The dramatic turnaround in the relationship between Riyadh and Doha comes as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is changing swiftly, forcing all regional powers to recalibrate their position and friendships.
After the two-year-long Israel-Palestine war, a tenuous peace is holding in the Middle East; however, the region is not what it was a few years ago.
The 13-year-long Syrian Civil War is over, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has fled the country, bringing an end to the over half-a-century-long Ba’athist regime in the country.
The Shia crescent in the Middle East, once running from Iran and Iraq to Lebanon and Syria, and even stretching to Houthi-controlled Yemen, is finally broken.
Iran is a pale shadow of its former self and no longer the over-arching regional power that used to make the Saudi-led Sunni bloc insecure.
Not only did Israel and the US launch direct attacks on Iran and its nuclear program in June, crippling its military and scientific leadership, as well as its air defense network, but all its regional allies, including Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Houthis in Yemen, have been weakened.
The Shia crescent in the Middle East is tattered, and Iran is no longer the rising power that makes the other Arab countries nervous; rather, the new insecurity among all the Middle Eastern players is the increasing profile of Israel.
During its two-year-long war following the Hamas terror attack on October 7, 2023, Israel attacked six Middle Eastern countries: Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Yemen, and even Qatar.
Israel felt bold enough to launch a missile strike in Qatar, despite the country hosting the largest US military base in the Middle East.
At least six people were killed and four others injured in the strikes, including members of Hamas and the Qatari security forces as well as civilians.
The message was clear: no country in the Middle East, no matter how close to the US, is beyond the reach of Israel’s long arms.
In the aftermath of the strikes, Riyadh also threw its support behind Qatar, strongly criticising Israel.
In other words, Iran is no longer the fearsome rising power in the Middle East; it is Israel, which is forcing all Middle Eastern countries to recalibrate their geopolitical positions.
Underneath the diplomatic language of building economic ties and infrastructure, it is the rising profile of Israel that is behind the dramatic turnaround in the relationship between Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
