Will Turkey’s “S-400 vs F-35 Lightning II” conundrum finally come to an end, as Russia is reported to have proposed buying back the S-400 ‘Prometheus’ air defense?
Turkish media outlet Nefes claimed that Russia has allegedly approached Turkey with a proposition to repurchase the S-400 air defense systems it delivered to Ankara in 2019 due to inventory constraints and rising demand from partners. Russia wants to re-purchase the system and sell it to another country, the report added.
However, the Russian-language media outlet RIA Novosti reported that no such offer was made by Moscow. Additionally, it highlighted that Dmitry Shugaev, Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FS) of Russia, had earlier stated that Moscow offered Ankara a comprehensive service of S-400 and was ready to discuss other issues of military-technical cooperation.
While neither of these reports could be independently verified, the prospect of an S-400 buyback by Russia has started a discourse, replete with speculations and chaos.
Why a Buy Back?: A Gist
Turkey purchased four batteries of S-400 from Russia in a deal signed in 2017. The deal was fiercely opposed by the US and NATO allies over concerns that the integration of the Russian-origin AD in the Turkish Armed Forces would jeopardise the F-35 stealth fighter program, of which Turkey was a crucial part at the time.
Despite multiple warnings, Turkey pressed on with the acquisition as it needed a long-range air defense system to address gaps in its capabilities, particularly as equivalent NATO systems (such as Patriots and SAMP/T) were either delayed or denied.
When Turkey accepted the first delivery of S-400 from Russia in 2019, it was sanctioned by the former Trump Administration under the CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) and expelled from the F-35 program, dealing a severe blow to Turkey’s modernization efforts.
However, despite paying such a hefty price for the S-400’s acquisition, Turkey never activated or deployed the AD system.
This was a well-thought-out decision aimed at balancing ties between Russia and NATO. In fact, some analysts suggested that Turkey purchased the system primarily to assert strategic independence from its allies in NATO, and to signal to them that it could diversify its defense partnerships.
However, a lot has changed since the S-400 was delivered to Ankara.
For one, Turkey pivoted to indigenous defense manufacturing and realised that the S-400 would not integrate with its other locally-produced systems. This may have prompted the exclusion of the Russian-origin AD from its aspirational ’Steel Dome’ air defense initiative.
Defense analyst Sinan Elgin earlier told BBC Turkey, “For a system like Steel Dome to be successful, all systems and subsystems must be fully interconnected and able to exchange information in an integrated manner. But a system like the S-400, which is not local, could become an obstacle to this integrated network.”
Second, Turkey places more emphasis on the acquisition of F-35 fifth-generation combat aircraft, particularly as it seeks to deter arch-rival Greece, which has bolstered its air force with the acquisition of the French Rafale and the American F-35 stealth jets.
Turkey has been desperately lobbying with the US to obtain the F-35 stealth aircraft. “We have not given up on the F-35s. We are discussing our intention to return to the programme with our counterparts,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quoted as saying. “We discussed the issue in our meeting with Mr Trump, talks at a technical level have started. God willing, we will make progress,” he added.
To obtain the F-35, Turkey will have to dump the S-400 first.
Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler claimed in November 2024 that the US had agreed to tolerate inactive storage. However, several analysts have suggested that the Trump administration might only relent if Turkey agrees to a full disposal, as it may be wary of a potential deployment in the future, as hinted at by Guler in 2023 when he said the S-400 will remain in the army’s stockpile and be used as necessary.
Earlier, a former Turkish Minister, Cavit Çağlar, suggested selling the system to a third country. However, the contract’s end-user certificate prohibits resale to third parties without Russian consent.
Since Moscow has refused to green-light any such transaction, this leaves Turkey with little choice but to sell the S-400 to Russia, if it wants the F-35.
Moreover, the Nefes report argued that Turkey might consider the offer because the utility of the S-400 in Turkey is rapidly decreasing for three reasons: the S-400 cannot be integrated into the NATO umbrella, the shelf life of its interceptors has reduced, and the S-400s that are currently inactive and kept in storage at an unknown location would require maintenance, which is likely to attract further sanctions by US.
Who Gets The Turkish S-400?
When Cavit Çağlar made a case for selling the S-400 to a third party, he specifically recommended selling it to either India or Pakistan, as reported by the EurAsian Times.
He said, “If it were me, I would sell the S-400s,” adding that there are states that would be willing to buy the system. When asked whether Turkey could sell the S-400 to its partner Azerbaijan, Calgar said, “No, Pakistan will buy them, India will buy them.”
If Russia goes ahead with the buyback of S-400, it will most likely transfer the system to India, which has reaffirmed ties with Moscow by pushing back against the US.
India signed a US$5.43 billion deal with Russia in October 2018 for five S-400 Triumf air defense missile systems. However, India has so far received only three squadrons.
After its brief war with Pakistan in May 2025, India has doubled down on fast-tracking the acquisition by urging Russia to expedite the delivery amid mounting security threats at its northern and western borders.
The delivery of the two remaining squadrons is to be completed by 2027, as assured by the Russian side last month. However, a buyback from Turkey would allow Russia to fulfil its delivery commitment without delays and without draining its own resources. Additionally, it would further strengthen ties with New Delhi at a crucial juncture.
Some Ukraine-based experts and military bloggers have called a potential sale of Turkish S-400 “insanity” at a time when Russia is waging a war against Europe—a reference to the invasion of Ukraine and latest drone incursions into European territory.
Separately, some others linked the proposal to the shortage in the Russian arsenal in the wake of rising Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian chemical plants and refineries.
However, experts believe that the buyback would not be frowned upon by NATO. “The buyback would not be construed by Turkey’s allies as an export of a weapon system to Russia, since Moscow would redirect the S-400 systems to another country,” Squadron Leader Vijainder K. Thakur (retd), an Indian Air Force veteran and military commentator, suggested.
There seems to be a growing public opinion in favour of the F-35, even if at the expense of the S-400. A popular analyst, Tugay Er, wrote on X: “If Ankara cashes out, it proves Türkiye isn’t a pawn between Moscow and Washington. It bends both sides. Buying the S-400 was leverage. Selling it back would be the ultimate flex, turn controversy into cash, and accelerate full independence. That’s how a mid-power acts like a great power.”
Some other vociferously argued that selling out the S-400 wouldn’t only allow Turkey an entry into the F-35 program but also bring the much-needed cash required to finance indigenous projects in Ankara.
Until now, Turkey has rejected all demands of disposing of the S-400—including a potential transfer to Ukraine or deployment near Syria.
The reason behind this reluctance has been that the US repeatedly delayed or denied sales of the Patriot system due to congressional concerns over Turkey’s human rights record. So, when the Turkish government came under attack in a 2016 coup, it was virtually defenseless.
Thus, obtaining the S-400 was seen as part of Erdogan’s plan to protect himself from another coup by strengthening his strategic ties with Russia. The purchase allowed Turkey to hedge between NATO and Russia, leveraging its position to gain concessions from both.
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