A striking mural depicting Vladimir Putin alongside Russian fighters in combat gear popped up in the Central African Republic’s capital, Bangui, right before the country’s recent presidential and parliamentary elections.
The Russian embassy quickly praised it as “a sign of our common victory over chaos and instability,” while the artwork also includes President Faustin-Archange Touadéra and local military officers standing together.
It’s a bold public nod to how much the government relies on those Russian paramilitaries—better known as Wagner—to keep things from falling apart again.
The colourful mural in the bustling capital could be seen as a comment on the importance of the Russian military presence for the government of 68-year-old Touadera, who was easily re-elected in the December election, according to provisional results.
The resource-rich former French colony remains the last bastion of the paramilitary group Wagner, which has established itself as one of the CAR government’s main security partners in exchange for lucrative mining contracts.
“For the first time in the long history of armed conflict, Central Africans have the opportunity to stop fearing for their lives,” Alexander Ivanov, the head of CAR-based Russian military contractors — who is under EU and US sanctions — told AFP in written comments.
Sergei Eledinov, a retired Russian military officer and expert on African security, said Wagner forces had helped improve security in the CAR.
“The CAR was, in fact, the only successful positive case,” Eledinov told AFP, referring to Russia’s military presence in Africa.
“The security situation has improved, stability has been achieved, roads have become safer, and there are fewer attacks,” said the Senegal-based founder of Convoy Africa, a consultancy that advises Russian and foreign companies.
“It would not be true to say that everyone is happy. But if we talk about the process as a whole, then of course the situation is improving.”
After Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash in 2023 following a short-lived mutiny against Moscow, the Russian defence ministry has sought to replace Wagner in Africa and coordinate security operations through an umbrella group known as the Africa Corps.
But unlike in countries such as Mali, where the African Corps took over, Russian private military contractors in the CAR have not come under the defence ministry’s control.
“They have failed to convince Touadera to give up Wagner in the CAR,” a European military source told AFP, referring to Russian authorities.
Wagner has been paid in mining concessions, which the source said suited Touadera well. “If he accepts the Africa Corps, he has to pay in cash,” the source added.
Deployed in 2018 at the request of Touadera to strengthen a ramshackle military, Wagner’s fighters have played a key role in ensuring stability in the struggling, strategically located country whose resources also include uranium and timber.
While pockets of violence remain, particularly in the east and northwest, the Russians have helped drive armed groups out of major cities.
Wagner was instrumental in 2020 when Touadera was last re-elected in a vote marred by allegations of fraud and an uprising by six rebel groups. The attempt to overthrow the government was repelled thanks to the intervention of the Rwandan army and Russian mercenaries.
The Russians also worked to ensure security in the runup to the December 28 ballot.
Ivanov, head of the Officers’ Union for International Security (OUIS), said the Russian contractors took any threats to the elections “extremely seriously,” given the experience of the 2020 polls.
Ivanov has been sanctioned by the European Union and the United States as the head of the OUIS, an entity EU and US officials describe as a Wagner front company in the CAR.
The group has sought to present itself as a responsible security partner and has regularly published Telegram posts about assisting local residents and disarming militants.
Half of the Russian contractors serving in the country have fought in Ukraine, including Dmitry Podolsky, Touadera’s security adviser, who lost both legs and an arm.
While Moscow has sought to play up the popularity of the mercenaries, human rights campaigners and the opposition have accused them of committing widespread rights abuses in the country.
Tensions
Recently, Touadera said talks with Moscow over Russia’s military presence were underway but denied he was under pressure to switch to the Africa Corps.
“Why do you speak of pressure?” he told France 24 television, pointing to “friendship and brotherhood” between the two countries.
Touadera declined to provide details of the talks. “That would be discourteous towards the Russian Federation,” he said.
Analysts said that Wagner’s departure would pose a problem for the CAR government.
“Wagner is better established there, with solid economic activities and a security record that is perceived as positive,” said Charles Bouessel, an analyst with the International Crisis Group. “The authorities fear that the Africa Corps will be less proactive militarily, as we have seen in Mali.”
Paul Crescent Beninga, executive director of the Central African Centre for Geopolitical Research and Analysis, said the mooted handover between Wagner and the Africa Corps “has created tensions.”
“But we hope for a smooth resolution,” he added.
Eledinov said he did not believe that Moscow would rush to dismantle a structure that has proved “successful”.
“I think that in the near future, they are unlikely to break it up.”
By Agence France-Presse (AFP)
