“He who rides a tiger is afraid to dismount.”
This classic Chinese proverb captures the dilemma all dictators face. Irrespective of their situation, they must maintain an aura of strength. The moment a dictator shows weakness, his regime begins to crumble.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has, over the years, built an image of a strongman in total control of the situation and committed to restoring Russia to its great-power status.
This strongman image is key to Putin’s continued rule in Russia.
However, the seizing of a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the Atlantic by US troops despite the reported deployment of a Russian nuclear submarine in the vicinity has put questionmarks over this strongman image of Putin.
The incident shows Russia as a paper tiger, at least when faced with the might of the US Army.
If Putin chooses to ignore this grave provocation from US President Donald Trump, he shows himself as weak, lacking resolve, and as an ‘Emperor with no clothes’.
Indeed, this can be Putin’s undoing, the unraveling of his strongman image, and his nationalist, conservative support base can be undercut by an even more rabid anti-American, ultra-nationalist leader.
In fact, if Putin fails to respond, this would also put in jeopardy his Ukraine war, which he has failed to take to its logical conclusion in the last four years.
However, even if Putin chooses to respond, there are no easy options.
Experts question whether Putin could really afford to escalate it with the US when he is already bogged down in Ukraine? Perhaps not.
The Russian-flagged tanker seizure by the US in the high seas has put Putin in a classic ‘Catch-22’ situation – where he is doomed if he acts, and doomed if he does not.
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Alexei Zhuravlev, the first deputy chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, publicly demanded that Moscow should “respond militarily” against US aggression targeting the Russian oil tanker.
🏴☠️ GAME OVER FOR THE SHADOW FLEET.
📌 The US 🇺🇲 Navy just seized the tanker "Marinera" (ex-Bella 1) in the North Atlantic, despite Russian attempts to protect it.
The Thriller Plot:
The ship was carrying sanctioned oil.
‼️ Mid-voyage, they painted a Russian Flag 🇷🇺 on the… pic.twitter.com/E0QGAswlu6
— The Battlefield (@TTheBattlefield) January 7, 2026
Calling the US action “outright piracy,” Zhuravlev said that the US should be answered by “striking with torpedoes and sinking a couple of American ships.”
He reportedly went to the extent of saying the Kremlin “could use nukes to respond” if escalation continued.
Some Russian warbloggers also suggested that Russia should respond by seizing US oil tankers in the Baltic Sea.
“The US maritime piracy must be mirrored by Russia in the Black Sea. We must stop, inspect, and in fact, sink them if we don’t like something,” said State Duma deputy and General Andrei Gurulev.
‼️‼️‼️🇷🇺🇺🇲 BREAKING – In response to the tanker seizure, Russia is threatening the United States with a missile strike.
“A military response is necessary: an attack with torpedoes and the sinking of several American ships,” — said Alexey Zhuravlyov, a deputy of the Russian State… pic.twitter.com/N08ZFyDmmN
— Visioner (@visionergeo) January 7, 2026
However, notwithstanding this explosive rhetoric, security experts warn that Russia has very few options to escalate.
If Russia wanted to escalate the matter, Moscow would not have stood silently watching the US troops board the Russian-flagged oil tanker while its nuclear submarine stood in the background.
“Russia allowed its tanker Marinera to be seized by US special forces 4000 km away from the US coast because Russian forces are no match for US and NATO forces in conventional warfare,” said Vijainder K Thakur, a former Indian Air Force pilot and defense expert.
The point about US superiority in conventional warfare is an important one, and even Russian war bloggers are grudgingly acknowledging it.
Kirill Fedorov, one of Russia’s most vocal military propagandists, reportedly admitted that the situation is grim.
Escalation Alert: RUSSIAN official Demands Military Response to US Seizure of Oil Tanker!!
We need to respond militarily: strike with torpedoes and sink a couple of American ships, — Russian State Duma deputy Zhuravlov. https://t.co/r9eqloXs3x pic.twitter.com/uJXtmpbLgI
— Global perspective (@Global__persp1) January 7, 2026
He accepted that Moscow has almost no leverage over Washington except for nuclear weapons and stressed that nobody wins in that scenario.
Russia’s options are even more limited by the fact that it has been fighting a full-scale war in Ukraine for the last four years.
Opening a second front at this stage, when the war in Ukraine is not over, could be disastrous.
Furthermore, most of Europe is already united against Russia, due to its war in Ukraine. They see Russia’s war as an existential threat.
Any escalation with the US at this stage is set to invite a united response from the US and European countries.
On the other hand, Russia is practically alone at this stage, with the possible exception of China and North Korea.
Additionally, many of Russia’s friends are at their weakest point at this stage.
Bashar al-Assad has lost power in Syria, and Nicolas Maduro has lost power in Venezuela. Iran is facing internal problems.
A new bill in the US could increase tariffs on buyers of Russian oil and Uranium to as high as 500%. While it might not deter China from buying Russian oil, countries like India will definitely rethink their purchases.
A new active front at this stage against the combined military might of the US and European powers will make Russia’s war effort in Ukraine even more difficult.
So, does that mean that Moscow has no option to respond to US provocation except by climbing the nuclear ladder?
Ukraine Front: Russia’s Only Option
Opening a new front against the US, or risking military escalation by engaging US forces in the Baltic Sea or the Atlantic Ocean, will be self-defeating for Russia, as it would force Moscow to dilute and diverge its forces from the Ukrainian front.
Instead, Moscow should, and perhaps will, respond by doubling down on the Ukrainian front.
According to defense analyst Thakur, “The escalation trajectory that will work for Russia does not involve fighting the US. It involves frustrating the US through decisive action.”
“Russia needs to finish the job that it started nearly four years ago. It needs to achieve its SMO goals immediately. To do so, Russia needs to raise its nuclear alert level and use the military assets at its disposal to vanquish Ukraine.”
Russia cannot fight the US while bleeding from a US-instigated war in Ukraine.
If Russia can achieve its war aims in Ukraine, despite active US, EU, and NATO involvement, then this would be the best response Moscow could give to Washington’s repeated provocations, be it instigating Ukraine to become NATO member, sponsoring the 2014 anti-Russia Maidan protests in Kyiv, supplying long-range weapons to Ukraine, allowing Kyiv to use its weapons to hit Russian territory, or now the seizing of Russian-flagged tanker.
Putin must not lose sight of the frontline that actually matters to Russia, which he has himself described as an ‘existential threat’ to Russia.
The US’s rogue behavior in the high seas, which a former U.S. Marine Corps (USMC) intelligence officer, Scott Ritter, has described as “piracy,” is a strategic deviation meant to confuse Moscow and force it to open a new front.
The only sensible way for Russia to respond is to “double down” on the existing front.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
