Russia struck the PA Pivdenmash facility in Dnipro, in eastern Ukraine, early morning on November 21 with the “Oreshnik” medium-range missile. The existence of the missile was not known to the West and the rest of the world till its operational test against Ukraine.
Advance Warning
Russia gave the U.S. a brief advance warning of the intermediate-range ballistic missile strike on Dnipro before the attack, according to comments a U.S. administration official made at a briefing on Nov. 21.
“The United States was pre-notified briefly before the launch through nuclear risk reduction channels,” Defense Department Deputy Spokesperson Sabrina Singh said.
Bloomberg reports that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also confirmed the warning, sent 30 minutes before the launch.
The U.S. had previously alerted Ukraine and its allies that Russia might test such an experimental missile.
According to Bloomberg, Russia notified the US of the planned launch shortly before the missile took off through nuclear risk-reduction channels.
The Russian missile was launched from the Astrakhan region by the Caspian Sea, a distance of around 1,000 kilometers, in the midst of an ongoing missile and drone attack targeting central Ukraine.
A U.S. official confirmed to the Kyiv Independent that the U.S. warned Kyiv ahead of the attack that this type of weapon may be used against Ukraine.
Oreshnik Antecedents
It’s speculated that the Oreshnik is a mobile, solid-fueled missile with a range between 2,500-3,000 and 5,500 km.
It is equipped with MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles) capable of traveling at hypersonic (Mach 10) speeds.
According to the U.S. Department of Defense, the Oreshnik missile is based on the RS-26 Rubezh design. The RS-26 is a solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that is a derivative of the RS-24 Yars ICBM. It has a range between 2,000 and 6,000 kilometers.
The RS-24 is capable of carrying MIRVs or the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle.
Russia currently relies on the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle for its hypersonic MIRV capability. The Avangard is designed to deliver nuclear or conventional payloads at speeds up to Mach 20 while performing evasive maneuvers to evade missile defenses. Its flexibility and speed make it a key element of Russia’s hypersonic strategy
The RS-26 successfully underwent a series of tests between 2011 and 2015. Despite its readiness for potential deployment, the missile was excluded from Russia’s 2018–2027 State Armament Program. The RS-26’s current status is not known.
It’s possible that the RS-26 has now been repurposed as the Oreshnik, given Russia’s increased focus on strategic and intermediate-range systems following the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty in 2019.
Soviet RSD-10 Pioneer Variant?
There is some speculation that the Oreshnik is a modernized variant of the Soviet RSD-10 Pioneer (NATO reporting name: SS-20 Saber) IRBM. Developed in the 1970s, the RSD-10 missile capabilities played a central role in convincing the West to negotiate a treaty with the Soviet Union to limit Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF).
Following the signing of the INF Treaty in 1987, the Pioner was withdrawn from service to comply with the treaty. The Pioneer missile reportedly had a range of 6000 km.
The Pioneer was a two-stage solid-propellant missile launched from a road-mobile Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL). It could carry a payload of 1,600 kg or be equipped with a 1-megaton warhead. Later variants featured an MIRV configuration with three 150-kiloton nuclear warheads.
It’s been suggested that the US withdrawal from the INF treaty in 2019 and U.S. plans to deploy medium and short-range missiles in Europe and Asia provoked Russia into developing the Oreshnik.
While the Oreshnik takes on the role assigned earlier to the Pioneer, it’s unlikely that Oreshnik is a modernized variant of the Soviet-era missile.
There is no evidence that the Pioneer has ever been tested with Avangard or that it can even carry the Avangard. In this context, it’s important to understand that Russia has switched to hypersonic warheads to bypass missile defense systems. However, Russia doesn’t develop warheads capable of hypersonic flight. Instead, it delivers warheads using the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle.
Putin’s Statements
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a televised address, described the Oreshnik missile strike as a successful test of this new medium-range missile system.
Putin said the attack was in retaliation for Ukraine’s use of American and British-made missiles on Russian territory earlier this week.
The attack targeted a facility in Ukraine where the US planned to produce short and medium-range missile
Other important points made by Putin include:
Russia considers itself entitled to use weapons against the facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against Russian facilities.
Russia will respond decisively and in kind to escalation.
The target of the Russian strike was a military-industrial facility in Dnepropetrovsk, the target was successfully hit.
The missile travels at speeds of up to Mach 10, making it impossible for existing air defense systems, including those created by the United States in Europe, to intercept.
In view of the missile’s invincibility, Russia would issue warnings to civilians and citizens of friendly nations in areas targeted by the Oreshnik for “humanitarian reasons” before future strikes.
Limited Oreshnik Missile Inventory
President Putin referred to the November 21 medium-range missile strike as a test, prompting a US official to state, “Russia likely possesses only a handful of these experimental missiles.”
The official added that Ukraine has withstood countless attacks from Russia, including from missiles with significantly larger warheads than this weapon.
However, it’s unlikely that Russia has operationally deployed the Oreshnik with a very limited inventory. It would be uncharacteristic and make little sense.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), headquartered in London, recently reported on its website that over the past six months, Russia has significantly expanded its capacity to produce solid-propellant rocket motors and continues to increase its production capabilities in this area.
The claim was based on an analysis of satellite imagery from Maxar, which suggested significant activity at five facilities related, among other things, to the production of solid rocket fuel after a 30-year lull in expansion or reconstruction.
So the limited inventory conclusion of the US official may well be wishful thinking.
Conclusion
The effectiveness of the Oreshnik attack is yet to be assessed. However, the message is loud and clear.
According to Ruslan Pukhov, head of the Moscow-based Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, President Putin has sent a very powerful message through the missile attack.
“It’s a very calculated move as it does not require retaliation by the US,” he said.
Indeed, the Oreshnik attack wasn’t delivered to provoke the US; it was delivered to stoke a rethink. The message was that Russia has the strength to retaliate and the wisdom not to escalate.
- Vijainder K Thakur is a retired IAF Jaguar pilot, author, software architect, entrepreneur, and military analyst.
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