As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen arrives in New Delhi with an unprecedented entourage of 21 EU Commissioners, the visit signals far more than diplomatic courtesy.
Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Donald Trump’s administration has thrown NATO’s future into uncertainty, demanding members increase defense spending to an unprecedented 5% of GDP—a threshold that not even the American military-industrial complex has reached.
More alarming for Brussels, the White House has explicitly repositioned its priorities: “border security” and “countering China” now supersede “European security” in Washington’s strategic calculus.
Among 32 NATO nations, 23 also belong to the European Union (EU). According to European Council President Antonio Costa, these EU-NATO members will likely agree to raise the defense spending target beyond the current 2% of GDP at a crucial NATO summit in June, where a new benchmark will be set.
Costa, a former Portuguese prime minister – speaking in January, noted that joint defense spending by these 23 EU nations has already hit 2% of GDP after a sharp 30% increase since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
He emphasized that with Russia as NATO’s primary threat, bolstering air defence, anti-missile systems, and electronic warfare capabilities should be a top priority.
But, the subtext is clear: Europe can no longer rely solely on American protection. If Washington is no longer Europe’s security guarantor, Brussels must chart its own course.
The fundamental question emerges: Can Brussels develop an independent security framework without Washington’s umbrella? The answer may lie in partnerships beyond the Atlantic.
Here’s where India enters the equation. With its growing defence industrial base, expertise in indigenous weapon systems, and strategic autonomy, India could play a critical role in helping Europe build its own security architecture.
President Of The European Commission In India
Amid shifting US foreign policy, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and 21 EU Commissioners have begun a two-day visit to India. This is the first trip out of Europe by the College, which took office in December, and the first-ever visit to India by the Commissioners together.
The visit signals Europe’s intent to strengthen partnerships beyond the US while resetting EU-India ties.
Von der Leyen, accompanied by the College of Commissioners, also met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The EU-India Trade and Technology Council is also set to convene. Announced at Davos on January 21, the visit marks a key phase in bilateral relations ahead of the upcoming EU-India Summit.
“In this era of intense geostrategic competition, Europe stands for openness, partnership, and outreach. We seek to deepen ties with one of our most trusted friends and allies—India,” von der Leyen stated.
Why India?
India’s strategic location in the Indo-Pacific, through which 80% of global trade by volume passes, makes it vital to regional security and EU interests.
Amid uncertain transatlantic ties, the EU seeks to expand key partnerships. Negotiations are underway for a free trade agreement, investment protection, and geographical indications, alongside cooperation in security, research, and space.
Yet, as the European Parliament noted in January 2024, ‘the partnership has not yet reached its full potential’.
Recently, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on European steel and aluminum imports, 25% of which are destined for the US. India, too, is preparing for economic uncertainties under Trump 2.0.
Meanwhile, EU-China ties remain tense, with both sides slapping tariffs on each other over claims of unfair competition. Von der Leyen’s guidelines explicitly cite China’s “aggressive posture and unfair economic competition.”
Both India and the EU seek to de-risk from China, particularly in critical minerals, semiconductors, and green technologies. As part of the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), they are exploring joint efforts in mineral extraction, processing, and innovation.
A semiconductor MoU—already signed—aims to strengthen supply chains, complementing India’s semiconductor incentives and the EU’s Chips Act.
With China still dominating global manufacturing (30% of output in 2021 vs. India’s 3%), India is positioning itself as an alternative to China as part of the West’s ‘the China plus one’ strategy. However, to fully capitalize on this shift, India must attract greater foreign direct investment (FDI) and scale up its manufacturing base.
EU-India Trade: Expanding Ties Amid Global Shifts
The economic dimensions of this burgeoning partnership cannot be overstated. The EU is India’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade in goods reaching €124 billion (US$130 Billion) in 2023—up nearly 90% over the last decade.
However, India was EU’s ninth-largest trading partner, making up 2.2% of total EU trade in goods—far behind the US (16.7%) and China (14.6%). Expanding exports to the EU could help India achieve its US$2 trillion export target by 2030.
According to an EU statement, around 6,000 European companies are present in India, directly employing 1.7 million people and indirectly supporting 5 million jobs.
Trade and technology cooperation has grown, with EU-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations resuming in 2022 and the launch of the Trade and Technology Council (TTC).
Both the EU and India are pursuing stronger cooperation on critical raw materials (e.g., lithium, rare-earth minerals, nickel) essential for the green transition, through initiatives like the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP).
From Commercial Partners To Security Allies
As the US steps back its ‘European security’ commitments, Europe is investing more in NATO and reassessing its Indo-Pacific priorities. Balancing financial and strategic resources will be key for deeper EU-India security engagement.
India and the EU share a vision for an open, rules-based Indo-Pacific amid rising geopolitical tensions, as highlighted in The Observer Research Foundation’s (ORF) report – A New EU-India Strategic Agenda in 2025.
Joint maritime drills between the Indian Navy and the EU Naval Force (EUNAVFOR) have taken place in the Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Guinea, alongside collaboration on EU security initiatives like CRIMARIO and ESIWA. India is also complementing the EU’s Mission Aspides in the Red Sea, deploying 12 warships to safeguard shipping routes from Houthi attacks. The EU’s Coordinated Maritime Presence tool in the North-Western Indian Ocean is ensuring sustained naval deployments.
Security cooperation expanded in 2023 with the appointment of the EU’s first military attaché to India. Defense ties—including arms sales and co-production with France, Spain, and Germany—are deepening as India diversifies its suppliers beyond Russia.
While the EU’s defense mandate remains limited, technology transfers could be a key area of collaboration. A potential EU-India security pact, akin to the EU-Japan agreement of November 2024, could cover defense industry partnerships, maritime security, and space cooperation, the ORF report said.
In December 2024, India and the EU established a high-level strategic foreign policy dialogue between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and EU High Representative Kaja Kallas. With the EU’s newly appointed Defense Commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, advocating a values-based foreign policy, this may be the right time to launch a 2+2 dialogue between foreign and defense ministers.
A Multipolar Reality
As the EU and India recalibrate their strategies, they face a world shaped by parallel wars, the potential consequences of a second Donald Trump presidency, and an assertive China.
Europe, confronting its most significant armed conflict since World War II, has seen its economic and security foundations—built on cheap Russian energy, American protection, and Chinese manufacturing—fundamentally disrupted.
This has pushed the EU to assert itself as a strategic global player. Despite occasional friction over India’s “active neutrality” stance regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, diplomatic engagement between Brussels and New Delhi has only intensified.
The delegation’s arrival marks a pivotal moment as both powers prepare a new strategic agenda expected in the second quarter of 2025. With the existing roadmap approaching completion, an anticipated EU-India Summit later this year could serve as the launchpad for a renewed blueprint for cooperation.
- Shubhangi Palve is a defense and aerospace journalist. Before joining the EurAsian Times, she worked for ET Prime. She has over 15 years of extensive experience in the media industry, spanning print, electronic, and online domains.
- Contact the author at shubhapalve (at) gmail.com
