Partial Success For GBU-57 MOP? Israel Hits Fordow Nuclear Facility Again After Trump’s ‘Very Successful’ Strikes; What’s Cooking

US President Donald Trump announced on June 21 that the US military had carried out a “very successful attack” on three Iranian nuclear sites. However, with the impact of these strikes unknown, experts think the US might have just failed to “devastate” the Iranian nuclear program.

“We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan,” Trump announced in a post on his Truth Social platform. “A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow,” he said.

Expressing optimism, he said on June 22: “Monumental Damage was done to all Nuclear sites in Iran, as shown by satellite images.” “Obliteration is an accurate term! The white structure shown is deeply embedded into the rock, with even its roof well below ground level, and completely shielded from flame. The biggest damage took place far below ground level. Bullseye!!!” he wrote on his Truth Social.

Despite the messaging from the US President, doubts have persisted about the destruction of the Iranian nuclear sites and infrastructure.

It is pertinent to note that the United States entered the war amid building pressure from its ally Israel, which was unable to destroy Iran’s nuclear program in a coordinated assault on June 13.

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Only the US military has the capability to drop the 13,000 kilograms GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs that could deal a massive blow to Iran’s Fordow, buried around 80-90 meters deep into the side of a mountain.

At a Pentagon briefing on the morning of June 22, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, stated that seven B-2s from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri delivered 14 MOPs in total against two nuclear target areas, which he described as “the first-ever operational use of this weapon.”

B-2 Spirit Stealth Bomber

The Isfahan location was attacked by almost two dozen Tomahawk missiles launched from submarines, Caine added.

Did The US Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program?

Contrary to the US narrative of success in obliterating Iran’s nuclear program,  is it possible that Tehran outsmarted the United States even before the operation began?

According to reports, the Iranian officials have claimed that they smuggled nearly all of the enriched uranium out of these facilities.

Hassan Abedini, deputy political head of Iran’s state broadcaster, said, “The enriched uranium reserves had been transferred from the nuclear centres,” adding there was no radioactive material at these sites that could cause any harm to civilians. This statement indicates a complete evacuation of enriched uranium.

Though the claims may appear to be a coping mechanism by the Iranian regime, the satellite imagery dated June 19, published by Maxar Technologies, showed a group of 16 vehicles slithering down a road close to the Fordow plant’s entrance.

Similar claims have emerged about convoys departing the three nuclear sites in the days ahead of the US strike, likely corroborating Iran’s assertions that it had relocated its 400 kilogram stockpile.

The extent of damage is still being ascertained. Several experts reckon that even the most devastating strikes ever launched on Iran’s nuclear sites, including underground Fordow, could not obliterate the West Asian country’s nuclear program.

Counter-Narrative

Satellite images published in the aftermath of the US strikes show six fresh craters, likely bomb entry points, with gray dust and debris scattered around at the Fordow site. Analysts suggest that the strikes targeted ventilation shafts, which are critical for underground operations.

However, challenging that point of view, ‘Patarames,’ an expert that specializes in analyzing Iranian military technology and doctrine by saying, “Iran’s engineers are not fools to design a ventilation shaft which is not designed with a secure blast trap design to avoid the blast wave to enter the centrifuge hall.”

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Satellite Imagery by Damien Symon on X.

As for Natanz, satellite images showed two craters above underground halls and new damage to above-ground structures, in addition to what Israeli strikes had caused.

Meanwhile, satellite images revealed 18 destroyed or partially destroyed structures at Isfahan, with significant rubble and blackened areas. The Tunnels suspected of storing enriched uranium were also targeted at Isfahan, according to certain reports, but that could not be verified independently by the EurAsian Times.

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Satellite Imagery by Damien Symon on X.

Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, who tracks Iran’s nuclear facilities, said it is likely that some very important things have not been hit.

If this ends here, it’s an incomplete strike,” Lewis said. Iran’s highly enriched uranium reserves appear to have remained unaffected by the strike. “Today, it still has that material and we still don’t know where it is,” he says.

Taking to X, Dr. Lewis said, “The 400 kg of HEU (highly enriched uranium) was largely stored in underground tunnels near the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility. Despite extensive Israeli and US attacks on the facility, there does not seem to have been any effort to destroy these tunnels or the material that was in them.”  He also highlighted a very crucial point: while the strikes on the enrichment plants Fordow and Natanz appeared successful, there had been no effort to strike the enormous underground facility next to Natanz where Iran can make more centrifuges and maybe do other things. 

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Satellite Imagery by Damien Symon on X

Meanwhile, David Albright, the president of the Institute for Science and International Security, who has also closely tracked Iran’s nuclear program for years, said: “I think the purpose of the attack was to take out centrifuges and infrastructure, and they feel they accomplished that,” he stated.

However, Albright said that it is also possible that Iran possesses thousands of centrifuges that enrich uranium but were never set up in Natanz and Fordow.

It could be possible to transfer the uranium to a different, secret location where it might be enriched to the 90% level needed for a nuclear weapon in a comparatively short amount of time.

Iran would still need to do more to turn the uranium into a bomb, he added, saying that Iran’s nuclear program can be reconstituted despite the setback it has received.

Chinese experts also weighed in.

Li Zixin, an assistant research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, told the Chinese state-owned publication Global Times that even with bunker-buster bombs, it would be very difficult to destroy the Fordow nuclear facility because it is located almost 100 meters underground.

Another Chinese military expert, Zhang Junshe, shared a similar view, adding that the Fordow site is highly resistant as it lies beneath 90 meters of solid rock.

Despite Trump’s confidence, US Vice President J.D. Vance has taken a more pragmatic approach. In an interview with ABC News on the night of June 22, Vance said he was unable to confirm the status of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium.

The VP said he thought the Iranian nuclear sites were “severely damaged or obliterated, I’m not exactly sure what the difference is.”

In response to a question concerning Iran’s  highly enriched uranium, Vance stated that the Trump administration is “going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel, and that’s one of the things that we’re going to have conversations with the Iranians about.” Thus, fuelling speculations that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is likely intact, as also pointed out by experts.

Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), told the IAEA’s board of governors on June 23, “Given the explosive payload utilized, and the extreme vibration-sensitive nature of centrifuges, very significant damage is expected to have occurred.” However, he also warned that no group, including the IAEA, is currently able to fully assess the underground damage at Fordow.

Thus, it is safe to say that nobody knows what the “obliteration” that Donald Trump has been talking about really means.

Some have expressed concern that another wave could follow the first US strikes if the objectives are not met. Reports suggest that Israel has now carried out a fresh strike on Iran’s underground Fordow nuclear site.

“The aggressor attacked the Fordo nuclear site again,” Tasnim news agency reported, quoting a spokesperson for the crisis management authority in Qom province.

Reacting to American strikes on a key Russian ally, former Russian President and Putin loyalist, Dmitry Medvedev said on X: “1. Critical infrastructure of the nuclear fuel cycle appears to have been unaffected or sustained only minor damage. 2. The enrichment of nuclear material — and, now we can say it outright, the future production of nuclear weapons — will continue. 3. A number of countries are ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads.”

Though Mededev is notorious for his inflammatory rhetoric and deadly warnings to the West, the mention of direct supply of nuclear warheads may be particularly concerning. Russia and Iran are close allies with a strategic agreement in place between them.

The extent of damage is unclear, but it has already triggered fears of massive escalation in the region. Iran has vowed to retaliate against US strikes, refusing to cave under the pressure created by the Zionist regime and their American backers.

Iran has vowed to respond, saying it “reserves all options.” 

Experts believe that this could involve attacks on US bases housing 40,000 troops in the region, and the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a crucial channel for global energy cargo transit. 

“The timing, nature, and the scale of Iran’s proportionate response will be decided by its armed forces,” the Iranian ambassador to the UN told the UN Security Council, denouncing the “acts of aggression.”