The expanding war in the Middle East, the Boeing Dreamliner crash, and a spate of last-minute cancellations from prominent participants will cast a shadow over the biennial Paris Air Show, one of the industry’s biggest gatherings, renowned for its swanky parties, deal signing ceremonies, product exhibitions, and flying displays.
The 2025 edition, which will take place from June 16 to 22 at Le Bourget airfield on the outskirts of Paris, will be attended by nearly 2,500 exhibitors from 48 countries and is anticipated to draw over 300,000 visitors.
Despite the recent crash of a Boeing 787 Dreamliner in India, which killed 241 people on board and over 50 on the ground, the event could see the signing of deals for over 800 civil aviation aircraft, in addition to multi-billion-dollar agreements for military weapons systems.
The Paris Air Show is also taking place against the backdrop of two full-blown wars. The Russia-Ukraine war is now in its fourth year, with no signs of a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, the war in the Middle East has taken a dangerous turn with Israel and Iran launching hundreds of drones and missiles, including ballistic and hypersonic missiles, at each other amid fears that the conflict could soon snowball into a broader regional confrontation.
Against this backdrop, approximately 45% of this year’s show will be dedicated to defense and security, a “strong increase” from the previous show in 2023.
The remainder will focus on civil aerospace, according to Emmanuel Viellard, the general commissioner of the show, who spoke at a press briefing by the French Aerospace Industries Association, or Gifas, which runs the event.
However, the event will also be marked by the conspicuous absence of many prominent players.
Boeing CEO, IAI To Miss The Event
The Israeli defense firms may be forced to cancel their participation in the Paris Air Show after Israel targeted over 100 sites in Iran, including nuclear facilities, ballistic missile depots, nuclear scientists, and high-value military commanders on Friday morning.
In return, Iran has launched hundreds of drones and missiles at multiple Israeli cities, forcing the closure of the airspace over the country.
The airspace over Israel is expected to be closed for civilian aircraft for at least the next 3 to 4 days.
Israel’s largest aerospace firm, the Israel Aerospace Industries, announced the cancellation of a scheduled press briefing on Monday by its CEO. The company said that it is ‘evaluating’ the situation, and a final decision on participation will depend on new “developments.”
Meanwhile, Kelly Ortberg, Boeing’s new CEO, will also not attend the Air Show. His decision not to participate in the event came after a Boeing 787-Dreamliner crashed in India on Thursday, marking the first fatal crash of the wide-body aircraft in its 14-year service history.
The 787 Dreamliner is considered to be one of the safest wide-body aircraft and the pride of Boeing’s long-haul catalogue. It is also one of Boeing’s most successful products, with over 2,400 aircraft already sold and orders in the pipeline for an additional 948 aircraft.
“As our industry prepares to start the Paris Air Show, Stephanie and I have both canceled plans to attend so we can be with our team, and focus on our customer and the investigation,” Ortberg said in a note to employees, referring to Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stephanie Pope.
Referring to the crash, Ortberg said, “It is important that we do not speculate about the accident and let the investigators do their work.”
Deal For 800 Aircraft Expected At Paris Air Show
Despite the tragic Boeing crash, the demand for civil aviation aircraft remains upbeat.
According to a Boeing forecast, the world will need 43,600 commercial airplanes over the next two decades. This translates to a demand of over 2,100 new aircraft every year. Much of this demand will come from the expanding civil aviation market in the emerging economies.
Boeing and Airbus, the two companies enjoying a duopoly in the global civil aviation market with a combined market share of over 90 %, will control the lion’s share of these new aircraft. However, new players like Embraer will also try to increase their market share.
At the Paris Air Show, deals for over 800 civil aviation aircraft are expected to be signed, according to an analysis by Simple Flying.
Aviation intelligence platform IBA predicts between 700 and 800 commercial aircraft orders at this year’s edition of the Paris Air Show. Dr. Stuart Hatcher, Chief Economist at IBA, predicts that orders will come from all around the world, particularly from the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, and Europe.
Airbus is expected to perform better in these orders as it is playing on its home turf.
According to Reuters, Poland’s LOT airlines can announce a deal for 40 Airbus A220s on Monday. Riyadh Air can sign an agreement for 25 Airbus A350s. Budget-carrier AirAsia can sign a deal for 100 Airbus A220. Similarly, VietJet Air can also sign a contract for 100 Airbus A321Neos.
Apart from these, Ethiopian Airlines, Royal Air Maroc, Etihad Airways, India’s Indigo Airlines, Qatar Airways, and EgyptAir can also announce deals for multiple aircraft.
It remains to be seen what impact the Boeing 787 Dreamliner crash will have on its order book. A Reuters report predicts that Boeing is unlikely to announce new commercial orders at the Paris Airshow.
Air India, the airline involved in the tragic plane crash on June 12, was earlier expected to announce a deal for 30 to 40 Boeing 777Xs, but the carrier has cancelled its participation in the Paris Air Show following the accident.
Fighter Jets
Apart from Civil aircraft, many state-of-the-art combat jets will also be displayed at the Air Show.
In light of the multiple military conflicts around the world, many countries are boosting their defense spending. Apart from the Russia-Ukraine war and the ongoing Israel-Iran war, India and Pakistan also fought a brief four-day war in May.
Some 75 companies involved in aircraft and weapons production will participate in the show, showcasing military jets, helicopters, and drones.
Lockheed and Dassault At The Paris Air Show
Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation F-35 and Dassault Aviation’s Rafale will both feature at the event. Notably, both combat jets were in the news recently. In the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, Tehran has claimed to have shot down three Israeli F-35 jets. However, Israel has rejected these reports.
Similarly, during the India-Pakistan conflict last month, Islamabad claimed to have shot down three Indian Rafale fighter jets. India has accepted the loss of aircraft, but has not provided any further details.
Interestingly, both Iran and Pakistan have claimed shooting down “three” enemy top-line fighters. What’s with the number three cannot be ascertained for now.
Meanwhile, Dassault Aviation CEO Éric Trappier has dismissed as “false” Pakistan’s claims that it shot down three Indian Rafale jets during Operation Sindoor. Speaking to a French magazine, Trappier said: “The reports of Indian Rafales being lost are not accurate.”
In total, over 900 defense companies will exhibit their products at the event. Defense, Space, Drones, Cyber, AI, Quantum, and Sustainable Air Mobility are the main themes at the Air Show.
The week-long show kicks off on June 16.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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