In August, as Trump’s tariffs on India took effect, reports emerged that India had paused key defense deals with the US, including a USD 3.6 billion agreement for the purchase of six P-8I aircraft from Boeing and an agreement to acquire Stryker combat vehicles produced by General Dynamics Land Systems.
The Indian government was quick to deny the reports, describing the media stories as “false and fabricated” and insisting that “the various cases (deals) of procurement are being processed as per the extant procedures.”
However, the way the Indo-US relationship is unraveling, it would not be surprising if some of the planned defense deals find themselves in the crosshairs of a relationship that is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.
Defense deals are never purely transactional businesses; instead, they are often driven by geopolitical alignments. As the New Delhi-Washington relationship enters one of its lowest phases, it remains an open question as to how wise it would be for India to continue relying on the US for its defense needs.
Defense deals are also multi-year commitments, often stretching into decades from initial discussions to final delivery schedules. Furthermore, the buyer country remains critically dependent on the supplier country for many years even after delivery has been completed, due to the lack of spares and MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Operations) facilities.
For aircraft, this dependence is even more critical and often spans decades.
Can New Delhi continue to rely on Washington for decades to come, even after the US, under Donald Trump, has shown its unreliability?
The Multi-Billion Dollar Defense Deals At Stake
Currently, defense deals worth more than USD 40 billion are at stake due to the faltering India-US relationship.
Deal for 31 MQ-9B Drones: In October last year, India signed a deal with the US for 31 MQ-9B Sky/Sea Guardian Drones (15 for the Navy, eight each for the Army and the Air Force). Deliveries for the deal, valued at USD 4 billion, are expected to commence by 2029, with all units anticipated to be delivered by 2030. The deal also includes the establishment of an MRO hub in India.
The American ‘Hunter Killer’ drones will come equipped with not only state-of-the-art surveillance equipment but also lethal weapons, including Hellfire missiles and laser small-diameter bombs.
Deal for six Apache helicopters for the Indian Army: Following the successful completion of an order for 22 Apache helicopters for the IAF, the Indian government signed a follow-up order for six Apache helicopters for the Indian Army, valued at around USD 600 million, in 2020.
The deliveries were expected to begin in 2023, but faced repeated delays. Finally, the first batch of three Apache helicopters was delivered to the Indian Army in July 2025. The remaining second batch of three Apache helicopters is expected to be delivered by the end of this year.
Deal for General Electric (GE) Engines: In August 2021, India’s state aerospace major, the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), signed a deal with GE for the supply of 99 GE F404-IN20 engines.
Valued at around USD 730 million, the engines were to power India’s domestically designed and developed LCA Tejas Mk1 fighter jets.
Deliveries were expected to begin in 2023, but faced repeated delays due to COVID and supply chain disruptions. Finally, after a nearly two-year delay, the first two jet engines were delivered in April and July of this year. GE is hopeful of providing 10 engines by the end of this year.
However, the HAL is also negotiating a second deal with GE for the supply of 113 GE-404 engines to power the LCA Tejas Mk1A variant of the domestically developed fighter jet. The deal is expected to be valued at approximately USD 1 billion, with deliveries anticipated to commence by 2032.
With the new order, HAL’s total order for GE-404 engines will stand at 212 engines.
Separately, HAL is also working on a third deal with GE for the supply of GE-414 engines for LCA Mark 2. Valued at around USD 1.5 billion, the agreement is expected to include 80% transfer of technology.
About 162-180 engines will be used for LCA Mark 2 fighters.
Together, the HAL and GE could sign deals for nearly 400 F404 and F414 jet engines. This might be the most crucial and significant India-US defense deal for years to come, as India currently has no alternatives to GE engines.
Since India has designed the entire LCA Tejas fighter jet program around GE engines, at this stage, India cannot replace it with any other jet engine and hence has a critical dependence on the US.
Deal for six P-8I Maritime Patrol Aircraft: India has already received 12 P-8I Maritime Patrol Aircraft manufactured by Boeing. In 2021, an effort was made to order six additional P-8I aircraft. Valued at around USD 3 billion, the deal was deferred in 2023, perhaps due to high costs.
However, reports surfaced in February 2025 that India might revive the deal.
Javelin Anti-Tank Guided Missiles Co-Production: An MoU was signed between Bharat Dynamics and Raytheon/Lockheed Martin in February 2025 for joint production of the Javelin Anti-Tank Guided Missiles.
While no final agreement has been signed, the deal could be worth between USD 500 million and USD 1 billion, depending on the contract terms.
Stryker Infantry Combat Vehicles Co-Production: India and the US are in the final stages of finalizing the Stryker deal.
The Indian Ministry of Defense has proposed a three-phase plan for the project. Valued at approximately US$1.5 billion for 530 units, it seeks to phase out India’s outdated Russian BMP-IIs. The plan unfolds in three stages: initial procurement through US Foreign Military Sales, joint production in India, and co-development of tailored variants.
Produced in India, the armored vehicles are also expected to be exported to third countries.
However, India also has domestic alternatives available for Stryker, and many Indian Army veterans argue that New Delhi should reconsider the decision to buy US armored vehicles when equally good and cheaper domestic options, such as Tata-Manufactured WhAP, are available.
The MRCA deal for 114 aircraft: Two US companies are part of the multi-billion-dollar contract for the 114 Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) deal. India had scrapped the tender process in 2015, opting to buy 36 Rafales in fly-away condition in a government-to-government contract.
However, the latest reports suggest that India is planning to issue a new tender for 114 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft. The tender will see fierce competition between eight aircraft, including three from the US.
Dassault’s Rafale, Saab’s Gripen, the Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin’s F-21, Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet and F-15EX, and Russia’s MiG-35 and Su-35 could take part in the tender process.
The deal could involve substantial Transfer of Technology (ToT) and a local manufacturing component. The deal could be worth over USD 20 billion.
Though Rafale will get a head start, as India has already inducted 36 Rafales and earlier this year signed a contract for buying 26 Rafale-M fighters.
The Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) deal: Another high-stakes deal is India’s Medium Transport Aircraft (MTA) program.
Initiated with a Request for Information (RFI) issued in December 2022, the program aims to procure 40-80 aircraft with a payload capacity of 18-30 tonnes to replace the aging fleet of Antonov An-32s and potentially supplement or partially replace the Ilyushin IL-76s.
The competition has narrowed to three primary foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), all of whom have responded to the RFI and proposed partnerships with Indian firms for indigenization.
Lockheed Martin’s C-130J, Embraer’s C-390 Millennium, and Airbus’s A440M Atlas will compete for the multi-billion-dollar deal.
Separately, even Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation stealth fighter jet, the F-35 Lightning II, has also been pitched to India. However, there are currently no official discussions between the two countries regarding the procurement of F-35 jets.
The two countries have also discussed a deal on nuclear reactors for both civilian and military use; however, no agreement has been reached.
Why There Will Be No Knee-Jerk, Blanket Decisions?
Together, these deals could be valued at around USD 40 billion.
Some of these deals have been signed and are awaiting delivery, while others are at an advanced stage of negotiation. For some, only Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) have been signed.
Furthermore, while some of the deals are absolutely critical, for which India has no alternatives, others are not so critical, as India can procure these systems from other countries. For some defense platforms, India also has domestic options available.
For instance, while India has no alternatives to GE F404 and F414 engines, as HAL has designed and developed its entire LCA Tejas fighter jet program around GE engines. However, for the Stryker deal, a recalibration is possible as New Delhi has domestic alternatives available, which some argue are equally capable.
Thus, India’s response must be layered and should be based on a deal-by-deal basis.
Furthermore, India could use the opportunity to strike a better bargain rather than rejecting the deal altogether. For instance, the P-8I Maritime Patrol Aircraft deal, which has been pending for many years, New Delhi could use the opportunity to demand better terms and pricing.
Also, while India is absolutely livid, New Delhi is unlikely to engage in a knee-jerk tit-for-tat move. Despite the Trump administration’s now almost daily indignations, New Delhi realizes the strategic value and imperative of maintaining a workable relationship with Washington.
Another reason India is unlikely to abandon its defense relationship with the US entirely is New Delhi’s multi-alignment diplomacy. India realizes its interests are best safeguarded in a multipolar world, and it is not interested in the division of the world between two mutually antagonistic power blocs.
India prefers a geopolitical world where it can source technology from A, foreign investment from B, and defense platforms from C, while maintaining stability and peace on its borders.
As much as India is disappointed with the US, New Delhi also realizes that it can not place all its bets with China and Russia. As the world’s largest democracy, which prides itself on its democratic traditions and free press, India knows that its destiny is not with autocratic regimes in Moscow and Beijing.
For all the above-mentioned reasons, it is unlikely that a blanket decision will be made covering all defense deals.
However, India can definitely pause some less critical deals, where it has other Russian/European or even domestic alternatives available, for strategic messaging that, if pushed to the wall, India can also retaliate by pausing defense deals worth billions of dollars.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
