In a significant development, Australia’s prestigious Lowy Institute has, for the first time, recognised India as a ‘Major Power’.
Overall ranked as the third most powerful country in Asia, behind the US and China, the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index 2025 report says that “India’s power in Asia continues to grow steadily but remains well below the potential of its resources.”
Notably, this year India scored an overall comprehensive power score of 40.0, qualifying it for ‘major power status’. Last year, India’s comprehensive power score was 39.1, which only qualified it for ‘middle power status’.
A significant determinant for India’s enhanced power score was India’s demonstrated success in ‘Operation Sindoor’.
Meanwhile, besides the Lowy Institute report, another report by an Australian government-affiliated think tank notes India’s success in the four-day war with Pakistan in May.
This comes weeks after the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA) ranked India above China in terms of air power. The Indian Air Force’s (IAF) demonstration of stand-off precision air-strikes against targets across the length and breadth of Pakistan in May was a major factor in WDMMA ranking India above China in terms of air power.
The 2025 Asia Power Index
According to the 2025 rankings, the US and China are the two superpowers in Asia. However, though the US remains the most powerful country in Asia, its comprehensive power is witnessing a decline, thanks to US President Donald Trump’s policies.
“The Trump administration’s policies have been a net negative for US power in Asia, but their true effect will only be felt in the years ahead.”
Trump’s whimsical tariff policy is damaging Washington’s strategic and military partnerships in Asia.
For instance, Trump imposed a 50% tariff on India, a strategic US ally. Trump’s tariffs on India might have derailed this year’s QUAD summit, scheduled for November in India, which has now been postponed indefinitely.
“The United States remains the top power in Asia. Yet in 2025, it recorded the largest decline in comprehensive power of any country included in the Asia Power Index, reducing US power to its lowest level since the inception of the Index in 2018.”
“This decline is attributable to both structural factors as well as the early policies and approaches of the second Trump administration to the region,” it said.
Meanwhile, China’s power is rising steadily.
“China is well placed to withstand coercive US economic policies. It is successfully positioning itself as a reliable partner amid uncertainty about the US approach to Asia.”
Notably, while the US’s comprehensive power score declined by 1.2 points, China’s rose by 1 point.
“China also continues to steadily erode the United States’ advantage in terms of military capability. In 2025, the United States’ lead for this measure is just two-thirds of what it was in 2017. China’s improvement is led by growth in its maritime and air warfare capabilities.”
Below the US and China, there is only one major power in Asia: India.
India is followed by 15 ‘middle powers,’ with Japan at number 4.
Meanwhile, Russia’s power in Asia is “rebounding”. Russia overtook Australia to become the fifth-most-powerful country in Asia.
“Russia’s power in Asia is rebounding, aided by support from authoritarian partners North Korea and China,” the report said.
Meanwhile, “Australia’s economic and military resources have declined relative to other countries, meaning it will need to work harder with what it has to maintain influence in Asia.”
Australia is followed by South Korea at seventh position, Singapore at eighth, Indonesia (9th), and Malaysia (10th).
Meanwhile, Pakistan, which fought a brief four-day war with India in May this year and is currently fighting Afghanistan, is placed at 16th position, behind countries like Taiwan, the Philippines, New Zealand, Vietnam, and Thailand.
The institute calculates a nation’s comprehensive power based on its resources and influence. The resources are further divided into four sub-categories: Economic capability, Military capability, Resilience, and Future resources.
A country’s influence is measured across four subcategories: Economic Relationships, Defense Networks, Diplomatic Influence, and Cultural Influence.
“A country’s comprehensive power is calculated as a weighted average across the eight measures of power, each of which aggregates data from three to five distinct sub-measures comprising 131 individual indicators,” the report said, explaining its methodology.
India Reaches Major Power Status
In 2025, India’s comprehensive power score exceeded 40 points, the threshold defined by the Asia Power Index for a “major power”. India increased the small lead it gained over Japan when it became the third-ranked power in 2024.
However, the large capability gap with China (73.7) has only widened, a long-term challenge for India (40.0).
The report says that India’s economic and military capabilities have both increased in 2025.
India’s “economy has continued to grow strongly and made small gains in terms of its geopolitical relevance — defined in terms of international leverage, connectivity, and technology.”
However, in terms of ‘diplomatic relationships’ and ‘defence networks,’ India’s score did
not improve commensurately.
In particular, India’s relationship with the US has been on a downward spiral in 2025. Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on India, one of the highest on any country.
Additionally, an annual QUAD summit scheduled for November in India was postponed indefinitely.
“The overall picture for India that emerges from the Asia Power Index is mixed: India’s own power is increasing slowly, but gaps remain between the country’s ambition and the reality of continued limits on its influence, particularly relative to China,” the report concludes.
Impact Of Operation Sindoor
According to the report, while India’s economic performance has improved, its ‘diplomatic relationships’ and ‘defence networks’ have not improved much.
However, India’s military capability has improved steadily.
According to the report, in 2025, India recorded the largest gains in cultural influence (+2.8) and military capability (+2.8).
Within Military Capability, while India has lost points in defense spending, it has shown improvement across all other benchmarks, such as total active military forces, weapons and warfare capabilities, signature capabilities that confer tactical and strategic advantages in warfare, and the ability to deploy rapidly and for a sustained period in the event of an interstate conflict in Asia.
The capabilities demonstrated by India during Operation Sindoor significantly improved India’s military rankings.
“For the most part, these gains were from improved expert appraisals of its capability, which were likely influenced by India’s performance in Operation Sindoor, launched in May 2025, which added to India’s recent combat experience,” the report said.
Interestingly, another Australian government-affiliated think tank, the Air and Space Power Center, has praised India’s performance during the May conflict in one of its latest reports.
The think-tank makes four important points about the four-day conflict in May:
(a) India achieved its initially stated aim of damaging the assessed terrorist camps on the first night.
(b) Pakistan’s retaliatory attacks were not just ineffectual but also demonstrated that
India’s air defence systems were effective.
(c) Pakistan’s eastern airbases would become unusable if hostilities continued.
(d) The four-day air war became an air superiority battle that India implicitly won.
The report acknowledges that India’s air defense systems, “coordinated through the Akashteer automated air defence control and reporting system,” performed exceptionally well and blunted Pakistan’s drone and missile attacks.
The successful interception by Indian air defense systems also included Fatah-I missile, Fatah-II, and hundreds of drones.
“Pakistan launched a 400km range Fatah-II rocket in the direction of Delhi; however, this was intercepted over Sirsa just after midnight,” the report said.
Furthermore, India established air superiority over Pakistan on the night of May 9.
India’s demonstration of stand-off precision air strikes against high-value military targets in Pakistan (11 air bases on the night of May 9) further underlines the Indian Air Force’s capabilities.
The successful demonstration of these capabilities has prompted military experts to take note of India’s rising military power, as reflected in India’s comprehensive military rankings.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
- VIEWS PERSONAL OF THE AUTHOR.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
