NATO’s European partners have been consistently warning that the Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a wider war with the transatlantic military bloc by 2028.
However, the military parade in Beijing has the West worried about a potential new alliance, termed the ‘Axis of Upheaval’, that could be much more dangerous than Russia alone and could easily dominate NATO.
The spectacular military parade in Beijing on September 3, marking the 80th anniversary of China’s victory over Japan in the Second World War, was attended by 26 heads of state.
During the parade, China showcased various new weapons systems, including nuclear-capable Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), hypersonic weapons, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) playing the role of loyal wingmen for the next generation of fighter jets, and anti-ship ballistic missiles.
However, the one image that is going to trouble the West for a long time is China’s President Xi Jinping, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and Putin walking side by side during the parade.
The unusual bonhomie between the trio has Western security analysts fearing a new potential military alliance featuring China, Russia, and North Korea. The potential alliance has already been termed the ‘Axis of Upheaval.’
Furthermore, all three leaders – Jinping, Kim Jong Un, and Putin – are effectively their respective countries’ presidents for life. Thus, any camaraderie between the three could have long-term consequences in global geopolitics.
Additionally, their authoritarian regimes mean that they could easily force their respective countries to mobilize all resources for war, which is in stark contrast to NATO countries, where democratic setups ensure that not only leaders keep changing, but any resource mobilization for military buildup must have public backing.
Though the three leaders have not yet announced the formation of a new alliance, military or otherwise, here is why such a coalition is highly likely.
Why China, Russia, and North Korea Are Natural Partners
While analysts debate whether Russia, China, and North Korea could form a military alliance, many people overlook the fact that such an alliance already existed in the past.
Not only did such an alliance exist, but they successfully fought an intense war against a UN-supported and US-led international coalition.
During the Korean War (1950-1953), while North Korea was supported by the Soviet Union and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), South Korea was supported by the UN, with the US as the principal participant.
The three-year war was inconclusive and ended in an armistice, dividing the Korean peninsula into two halves.
So the three countries of China, Russia, and North Korea, all of whom have lived under Communist regimes, have a history of military cooperation and fighting a war on the same side.
Furthermore, while the three countries do not have an alliance, Russia has special relations with both China and North Korea.
Russia and North Korea signed the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in June 2024, which has a mutual defense pact on the lines of NATO’s Article 5.
Article 4 of the treaty states that should either nation “put in a state of war by an armed invasion,” the other “provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay”.
It was under this clause that North Korean soldiers fought in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, which was occupied by the Ukrainian forces.
According to reports, nearly 12,000 North Korean soldiers fought in Kursk, with almost 2,000 of them dying on the battlefield. North Korea also provided substantial ammunition and military equipment to Russia during the war.
Similarly, Russia shares a very special relationship with China. Moscow and Beijing declared a “no limits partnership” weeks before Putin ordered Russia’s Ukraine offensive in February 2022.
China remains Russia’s largest trade partner and the largest buyer of Russian oil and coal. China also buys substantial amounts of Russian LNG and pipeline gas.
On September 2, Russia and China signed a major deal to build the long-delayed Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. The pipeline is set to transport gas reserves in Russia’s West Siberia to northern China via eastern Mongolia.
China also remains the largest supplier of dual-use items (with military applications) to Russia, since the war began. According to analysts, China’s dual-use items have been crucial for Russia’s drone production capacity.
China and North Korea’s support has been crucial for sustaining Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
China and North Korea also have friendly relations. China has been one of the few countries that has maintained diplomatic and trade ties with North Korea despite Western sanctions.
Furthermore, Russia and North Korea are already two of the most sanctioned countries in the world. Meanwhile, China is also involved in a trade war with the US.
Consequently, these countries could easily form an alliance, as the West has limited leverage in terms of imposing new sanctions on these countries.
The Three Nuclear Powers
Russia, China, and North Korea are all nuclear powers. Russia is the world’s largest nuclear power, and China has the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal.
Together, the three countries will have the world’s largest nuclear arsenal of any military bloc. According to SIPRI data, while the Russia-China-North Korea combine will have 6,735 nuclear weapons, the NATO alliance will have 6,305 nuclear weapons.
Thus, the Russia, China, North Korea alliance will command more nuclear weapons than the whole NATO bloc.
However, the military advantage of the alliance over NATO is by no means limited to nuclear weapons only.
China-Russia-North Korea Military Advantage Over NATO
If challenged, NATO would easily outnumber the military forces of Russia, China, or North Korea individually. However, if the three countries form a military alliance, they would represent a formidable foe to the West and could significantly outnumber NATO’s military edge.
According to a study conducted by the British newspaper Daily Mail, the three countries will dominate the NATO alliance in everything from military personnel to reserve forces, and from tanks to naval strength.
However, the NATO alliance will enjoy a slight edge in terms of combat aircraft and attack helicopters, and a decisive edge in terms of aircraft carriers.
According to the Daily Mail analysis, while the 32 NATO nations have together 3.55 million active troops, the China-Russia-North Korea (CRNK) alliance will have 4.67 million active troops.
Similarly, while NATO countries have 2.7 million reserve forces, the CRNK alliance has more than 3 million reserve troops.
In terms of tanks, while NATO commands 14,125 tanks, the CRNK alliance commands 16,894 tanks.
However, NATO will have more combat aircraft at its disposal. The NATO alliance commands 3,312 fighter aircraft and 1,416 attack helicopters. The CRNK alliance has 2,413 combat aircraft and 858 attack helicopters.
Again, in terms of naval fleet strength, the CRNK alliance (1,380) will dominate the NATO alliance (1,143).
However, one crucial area where the NATO alliance will have a decisive edge over the CRNK alliance is in terms of aircraft carriers, thanks largely to the US’s 11 aircraft carrier fleet.
Together, while the CRNK alliance commands seven aircraft carriers, the NATO alliance has more than double, with 16 flattops at its disposal. However, here too, China and Russia’s impressive progress in terms of anti-ship hypersonic missiles could blunt NATO’s advantage.
In fact, all three countries of the CRNK alliance have substantial missile arsenals.
In terms of submarines, the two blocks will have nearly identical strengths.
However, another point to note is that Russian troops have been fighting an active war for more than three years. So, Russian troops are battle-hardened. On the other hand, the NATO alliance has not fought a peer military rival in many decades.
Europe has been warning that Russia is preparing for a major offensive against NATO by 2028. According to experts, after Ukraine, Russia could launch an invasion of the Baltic states – Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania, which are all NATO members.
Similarly, China has declared that it intends to unify Taiwan with the mainland, by force if necessary.
Experts warn that China and Russia could simultaneously launch an offensive in Asia and Europe. And, as these numbers suggest, NATO could be decisively defeated in such a confrontation.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
