The concept of a false flag operation has been around in defense studies and international relations for hundreds of years.
It occurs when an actor, usually a state, a spy agency, or a military, carries out an outrageous attack, often on its own territory, but under a false flag, so that it could be blamed on the enemy side, to mobilize public opinion against them, furnish a justification for declaring war, or compeling reluctant or nuetral allies to enter the war.
The legend of ‘Nero fiddled while Rome burned,’ suggests that the Roman Emperor was complacent while a fire burned Rome in 64 AD.
However, many historians believe that he himself started the fire and deliberately allowed it to burn the city so that he could blame it on the city’s nascent Christian community, while also clearing space for his grand building projects, like the Domus Aurea.
In modern times, Operation Northwoods (1962) is widely regarded as the most famous proven false-flag operation in U.S. history.
The CIA planned massive terror attacks in the US and blamed Cuba for them, which would provide the US with the justification for declaring war on the Communist state.
Similarly, in 1954, Israel planned Operation Susannah, a series of bomb blasts in Egypt, including cinemas, libraries, and American and British cultural/educational centers in Cairo and Alexandria.
The plan was to blame the blasts on the Muslim Brotherhood, and to show Egypt as an unstable country prone to radicalism and anti-Western sentiment, which would deter Britain from withdrawing troops from the Suez Canal zone and sour US-Egypt relations, thereby benefiting Israeli strategic interests.
Even amid the ongoing Iran War, Tehran has accused Tel Aviv on multiple occasions of conducting false flag operations, which are then blamed on Iran.
Through these false flag operations, Iran claims that Israel is trying to isolate Tehran, turn its regional Gulf neighbors against Iran, and pressure reluctant Western countries, such as the UK and France, to join Israel and the US’s war effort against Iran.
It is interesting to note that while Iran has deliberately targeted Gulf countries in the war as a strategy to drive home the point that if the war stretches, then the whole region will suffer, not just Tehran.
However, amid the wave of strikes on its neighbors, Iran has steadfastly denied its involvement in certain attacks. And at least in some of these cases, there is evidence, even if only circumstantial, suggesting that Tehran was not responsible for these attacks.
Iran Accuses Israel of Conducting False Flag Ops
Last week, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, warned of possible “false flag” operations by Israel and “Zionist tricks,” urging regional unity.
For instance, Iran has termed a number of attacks during this three-week-old conflict as false flag operations executed by Israel. In fact, allegations of false-flag activity have become a prominent feature of the discourse.
In the first week of the war, Iran accused Israel of conducting drone strikes on Saudi energy facilities, including Aramco, to strain ties between the two Gulf countries and isolate Iran in the region.
An Iranian Foreign Ministry official told Middle East Eye that Israel was behind strikes against Saudi Arabia and at least one attack on Oman, asserting, “I can categorically say that some of the attacks were not carried out by us [Iran].”
The claims followed at least five drone and missile strikes on Saudi facilities, including the Ras Tanura oil refinery and the US embassy in Riyadh, alongside two targets at Oman’s Duqm Port.
Iran even suggested that some of these attacks might have been carried out from within Iranian territory, but by Mossad agents deeply embedded in Iran.
The Mossad carried out the attacks using a deep network of agents and logistics already established inside Iran, two Iranian sources told the Middle East Eye.
They claimed authorities are currently locating warehouses used by Mossad to store drones, with one source stating, “We would not be surprised if there are such warehouses and operational rooms in other countries in the region.”
On March 4, an alleged Iranian ballistic missile entered Turkish airspace. The projectile was shot down by NATO air defense systems in the country.
The event was significant because Turkey is not only a NATO member but also a regional power and one of the few countries in the region with which Tehran has friendly relations.
The alleged Iranian strike on Turkey perplexed many, as people wondered what exactly Tehran hoped to achieve by striking Turkey and giving Ankara a reason to join the war.
Iran denied targeting Turkey and even proposed a joint probe with it to allay Ankara’s doubts.
However, as is often the case in such scenarios, it takes years for the truth to come out, and someone could be held clearly responsible for such attacks. In the meantime, a false flag operation could serve an immediate purpose by rallying support against your enemy.
This is an important part of modern hybrid warfare, wherein conventional military means and kinetic actions are combined with intelligence activities, cyber operations, media influence, and perception management.
US Patriot Missile Responsible for Bahrain Attack?
Similarly, on March 9, an explosion occurred in a residential area of Sitra in Bahrain. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) immediately blamed an Iranian drone for the strike.
However, independent analysis by open source intelligence suggests that the blast likely occurred because of a Patriot missile.
The Middlebury Institute of International Studies researchers concluded with moderate-to-high confidence that the suspect missile was likely launched from a U.S. Patriot battery located about 4 miles (7 km) to the southwest of the impacted neighborhood.
Understandably, Iranian officials are citing the incident as an established pattern of the US and Israel blaming Tehran for their strikes to mobilize public opinion against Iran in the region.
Similarly, Iran categorically denied hitting the Azerbaijani airport in Baku in a drone strike on March 5 that injured four people.
After the strike, Azerbaijan threatened to punish Iran.
“The Azerbaijani state strongly condemns this ugly terrorist act, and those who committed it must be immediately held accountable,” Azerbaijan President Ilham Alliyev said.
However, during a call with his Azerbaijani counterpart, Jeyhun Bayramov, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, insisted that Tehran was not behind the attack.
Araghchi suggested that Israel could be responsible, describing the strike in a statement on Telegram as “aimed at diverting public opinion and undermining Iran’s good relations with its neighbours.”
However, what has gained most public attention is the alleged Iranian missile attacks, targeting a joint military base of the US and the UK on the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia.
Did Iran Hit Diego Garcia?
The strategically located island is nearly 4,000 km away from Iran. However, Iran’s longest-range ballistic missile, Khorramshahr-4, has a range of only 2,000 km.
If indeed Iran has a ballistic missile capable of striking targets at a distance of 4,000 km, then its implications are huge, as this would mean that most of Western Europe, including cities like London and Paris, are within the range of Iranian ballistic missiles.
Notably, this news was reported at a time when Britain and many European nations were reluctant to join the war or open up their military bases to US forces.
Earlier this month, in an interview with the US broadcaster NBC, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, “We intentionally limited ourselves to below 2,000km of range because we don’t want to be felt as a threat by anybody else in the world.”
In fact, on the same day as the alleged Iranian missile attack on Diego Garcia, the UK cabinet was meeting to discuss whether or not to allow the US to use its military bases for conducting strikes on Iran.
An Iranian ballistic missile attack on an important UK military base would have served as a perfect excuse for allowing the US to use its military bases.
However, soon after, senior Iranian officials said Iran was not responsible for the missile launches. Tehran issued a clear and repeated denial of involvement, dismissing the claim as an “Israeli false flag” attack.
Meanwhile, even NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said the alliance could not confirm Israel’s claim that the projectiles used were Iranian intercontinental ballistic missiles.
“That even the NATO Secretary General (who is infamously pressing Alliance members to appease the U.S. and support their illegal war on Iran) declines to endorse Israel’s most recent disinformation, speaks volumes: the world has grown thoroughly exhausted with these tired and discredited ‘false flag’ storylines,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei wrote on X.
At this stage, it is not possible to conclusively accept or reject any of these claims. While Israel and the US spy agencies have a long history of conducting covert operations and blaming others for those actions, it is also true that Iran also has a long history of dismissing everything as an Israeli or US “inside job.”
Iran’s Long History of ‘False Flag’ Accusations
Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other Iranian officials repeatedly suggested the 9/11 terrorist attacks were an “inside job” by segments of the U.S. government.
In 2006, Ahmadinejad wrote to US President Bush a letter suggesting that 9/11 was an inside job. “Could it be planned and executed without coordination with intelligence and security services – or their extensive infiltration?” he asked. “Of course, this is just an educated guess. Why have the various aspects of the attacks been kept secret?”
Ahmadinejad is also a known Holocaust denier.
In 2013, outgoing Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said during a farewell ceremony that publicizing his Holocaust denial was a major achievement of his presidency.
“That was a taboo topic that no one in the West allowed to be heard,” Ahmadinejad said in a speech, according to the Iranian Fars news agency. “We put it forward at the global level. That broke the spine of the Western capitalist regime.”
Iran, in fact, has a very long history of Holocaust denial.
For instance, in 1998, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, president of Iran from 1989–1997, opened an Iranian Al-Quds Day rally, dismissing as “Zionist propaganda” the fact that six million Jews were murdered during World War II.
In the same year, the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, met with convicted French Holocaust denier Roger Garaudy, who wrote about “the myth of the six million” Jewish victims in his book The Founding Myths of Modern Israel.
In 2001, Khamenei claimed the “exaggerated numbers” of Jews killed during the Holocaust were “fabricated to solicit the sympathy of world public opinion, lay the ground for the occupation of Palestine, and justify the atrocities of the Zionists,” while speaking at a conference on Palestine in Tehran.
Similarly, recently assassinated Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani and others claimed French intelligence services carried out the Charlie Hebdo shooting in Paris in 2015 as a false flag to tarnish the image of Muslims and Islam.
Given Iran’s long history of terming everything as an ‘inside job,’ it can not be ruled out that even in the ongoing war, Tehran is deliberately blaming Israel for its own strikes to escape responsibility for its actions and to mobilize public opinion against Tel Aviv.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
