What is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s endgame in Ukraine? Ever since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, Russia has been blowing hot and cold on the question of the ceasefire, leaving many analysts wondering just how much of the Ukrainian territory will satisfy Moscow.
Amid this uncertainty, senior Ukrainian officials are warning that Moscow has no intention of stopping anytime soon, and the war may continue for at least another two years.
Worse, Putin’s designs in Ukraine are not limited to just the four oblasts that Russian officials have demanded in the recent ceasefire talks. Instead, Putin is gunning for half of Ukraine and wants to make it a landlocked country by cutting its access to the Black Sea.
So, what exactly is Putin planning to achieve in Ukraine? How far is he willing to push this war of attrition, despite heavy losses on the Russian side?
Putin’s Endgame In Ukraine
According to senior Ukrainian government officials, Russia wants to occupy all of Ukraine east of the Dnipro River.
Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Colonel Pavlo Palisa told reporters on June 5 that Russia likely seeks to seize the full extent of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by September 1, 2025, and create a buffer zone along the northern Ukrainian-Russian border by the end of 2025.
The Ukrainian military intelligence, shared with reporters during a recent visit by a Ukrainian delegation to Washington, indicates that in 2026, Russia seeks to occupy the entirety of Ukraine east of the Dnipro River, which bisects the country.
Additionally, the Ukrainian delegation warned that Russia is planning to seize the southern Ukrainian regions of Odessa and Mykolaiv, which would cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea, making Kyiv dependent on Moscow for its access to the sea.
“Unfortunately, they are not speaking about peace. They are preparing for war,” Palisa was quoted as saying by Politico. He was briefing a bipartisan group of senators on June 4 as part of a delegation led by Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.
Western sources also published a detailed map of the Russian war aims in Ukraine.
According to the map, Russia intends to seize roughly 222,700 additional square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and hold a total of 336,300 square kilometers by the end of 2026. The total area of Ukraine is approximately 603,500 square kilometers.
The map suggests that Russia will try to leverage its positions in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts to advance troops and seize the remaining area of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts before September 1, 2025.
In the South, Russia seeks to occupy the Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts to cut Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea.
If this information is correct, then it means that Russia has not backed down a bit on its initial war aims of occupying all of Ukraine to the east of the Dnipro River as well as occupying the southern part of the country.
Significance Of The Dnipro River
On social media, Russian nationalists often claim that reaching the Dnipro River is the final aim of this war. To an outsider, it may appear as if reaching the eastern banks of the Dnipro River is more important in the Russian psyche than reaching Kyiv. One may wonder, what is the significance of the Dnipro River for the vision of “Novorossiya” (New Russia), a historical concept of Russian-dominated territories in southern and eastern Ukraine.
A Natural Defensive Frontier: One of Russia’s permanent sense of insecurity stems from the fact that Russia has many thousands of miles of land borders; however, there are no geographical features that act as a natural defense. There are no rivers, mountains, forests, or deserts on its borders with Eastern European countries.
Most of the Russian border in the East is a vast stretch of plains, which is easily accessible for invasion.
By reaching the shores of the Dnipro River, Russia wants this wide, mighty river to act as a natural defensive barrier.
Russia can build defensive posts all along the eastern bank of the river, further solidifying its defense.
Securing Crimea: Controlling territory east of the Dnipro, especially regions like Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, secures Russia’s land corridor to Crimea, which it annexed in 2014. This corridor is vital for supplying Crimea with water (via the North Crimean Canal) and maintaining economic and military control over the peninsula.
Weakening Ukraine’s Economy: The Dnipro is central to Ukraine’s economy, supporting transportation, agriculture, and energy (e.g., hydroelectric dams). Controlling the eastern bank disrupts Ukraine’s ability to navigate the river, impacting trade and security.
Industrial and Agricultural Heartland: Eastern Ukraine, particularly Donbas, is rich in coal, steel, Rare Earth minerals, and other industries critical to both Ukraine and Russia’s economies. Controlling these resources bolsters Russia’s economic leverage.
Historical Significance: The Dnipro River was central to the Kievan Rus state (9th–13th Centuries), a medieval state considered the cultural and political ancestor of both Ukraine and Russia. Controlling the Dnipro River will weaken Ukraine’s ideological claims to the Kievan Rus state.
In Putin’s mind, this is critical to weaken Ukrainian nationalism and deprive it of its ideological ancestry.
Additionally, the Dnipro River bisects Ukraine in the middle, with the eastern half traditionally under greater Russian influence and the Western half under greater European influence. In Putin’s mind, lands up to the Dnipro River are historical Russian lands, part of the Russkiy Mir (The Russian World).
However, the question is, can Russia realistically hope to reach the Dnipro River by next year?
Can Russia Reach Dnipro River By 2026?
According to a detailed analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), given the current pace of Russian advances in the east, this is highly unlikely.
“Russian troops are unlikely to achieve such great success in such a short time frame,” the ISW assessment said.
ISW made this conclusion given Russia’s current offensive capabilities and assuming that the flow of Western aid to Ukraine will continue.
“It remains unclear on what basis the Russian military may be able to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast within the next three months or even advance the 50 to 80 kilometers from the current Russian frontline to the administrative boundaries of Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces have spent the last 15 months advancing between 30 and 50 kilometers from the outskirts of Avdiivka to their current positions northeast and southwest of Pokrovsk, a far slower rate of advance than the one necessary to seize all of Donetsk Oblast by September 1,” it said.
To reach the Dnipro River, Russia will also have to fight through the heavily fortified cities of Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Slovyansk.
The last time Russia engaged in urban warfare of this intensity was during the assault on Bakhmut, which resulted in hefty Russian casualties.
“A series of intensified, simultaneous Russian offensives into northern Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv oblasts would spread Russia’s manpower and materiel along the entire thousand-kilometer-long frontline and likely exacerbate existing constraints.”
“The Russian military command’s purported objectives for 2026 extend far beyond Russia’s formal territorial demands and aim to seize a significant part of central Ukraine and most of southern and eastern Ukraine.
“Palisa’s map suggests that Russian forces intend to seize the entirety of Ukraine on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River, which includes the rest of unoccupied Zaporizhia Oblast, and all of Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava oblasts; and half of Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. Palisa’s map suggests that Russian forces also intend to seize parts of southern Ukraine west of the Dnipro River, including most of Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts.
“Russian forces will have to seize nine currently unoccupied oblast capitals – Zaporizhzhia, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava cities – with an estimated pre-war population of over 5.6 million people. Russia has not captured an oblast capital city since March 2022, when Russian forces seized Kherson City and subsequently lost it eight months later,” the ISW assessment said.
Putin’s aim of reaching the Dnipro River depends on the assumption that at some stage, the Western support to Kyiv will collapse. However, if the West continues to back Ukraine with military and economic aid, then Moscow will be unable to achieve its objectives by the end of 2026.
“Russia’s only real hope of winning its war in Ukraine is to convince the West to abandon Ukraine, and Putin is therefore seeking to prevent the future supply of Western military aid to Ukraine.”
However, “Russia is very unlikely to seize half of Ukraine if the international coalition continues supporting Ukraine,” the report concludes.
Nonetheless, it is safe to say that despite the peace talks in Istanbul, the Ukraine War is nowhere near coming to an end and may even intensify in the future.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
