‘Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics,’ is a well-known military maxim. History is littered with instances where poor logistics failed a tactically capable force.
Napoleon’s 1812 invasion of Russia and Hitler’s 1941 invasion of the Soviet Union both failed due to poor logistics, not poor tactics.
If there is one piece of evidence that leaves no doubt that the Iran-U.S. War is certain, it is this: Washington’s focus on logistics.
While the U.S. force mobilization in the Middle East is the biggest in decades, the focus on logistics suggests that the US is preparing for a sustained campaign against Iran, not a one-off strike like last June, during ‘Operation Midnight Hammer,’ when seven B-2 Bombers, accompanied by F-22s and F-35s, bombed three Iranian nuclear sites.
The scale of the force mobilization, including hundreds of flights by military transport aircraft and tankers, building an “air bridge,” utilising dozens of C-17 Globemaster III cargo planes and KC-46 aerial refuelling tankers to move thousands of tons of munitions, field hospitals, and support equipment, deployment of an unprecedented number of AWACS and Electronic Warfare aircraft, and amassing of air defense assets in the region clearly establish that the objective is more than political signaling.
“The firepower will provide the US the option of carrying out a sustained, weekslong air war against Iran instead of the one-and-done ‘Midnight Hammer,” US defense officials told the Wall Street Journal.
Meanwhile, according to Robert A. Pape, the Founding Director of the Chicago Project on Security & Threats (CPOST), the US’s current force mobilization in the Middle East accounts for 40-50% of the deployable US air power worldwide.
US’s Unprecedented Force Mobilization In The Middle East
The US has already assembled the greatest amount of air power in the region since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and the force mobilization is still underway.
The US is sending a massive number of jet fighters, including the cutting-edge stealth fighters F-22 Raptor and F-35s, F-15s, F-16s, and F/A-18 Hornets, as well as support aircraft, such as C-17A and C-130 Hercules cargo planes, KC-46 Tankers, WC-135R Nuclear sniffer, RC-135 SIGINT, E-3 Sentry AWACS, and ground support aircraft A-10 Thunderbolt.
According to Robert Pape, open-source intelligence analysts and flight-tracking websites have tracked nearly 160 flights by C-17A cargo planes, 18 by Lockheed C-5 Galaxy, and numerous by C-130 Hercules military transport aircraft.
These cargo flights have transported thousands of tonnes of munitions, air defense batteries, field hospitals, and other support equipment needed to sustain a military operation lasting several weeks.
OSINT analysts have also tracked multiple flights by KC-135 & KC-46 Tankers. The US has established an air bridge across the Atlantic with these tankers, enabling fighter jets such as F-15s, F-16s, F-22s, and F-35s to fly thousands of miles.
Military Air Tracking Alliance, a team of about 30 open-source analysts that routinely analyzes military and government flight activity, said it has tracked more than 85 fuel tankers and over 170 cargo planes heading into the region in mid-February.
The US has also deployed several special-purpose aircraft, such as the Lockheed Martin HC-130J Combat King II, a specialized, four-engine turboprop aircraft used by the US Air Force for personnel recovery, helicopter aerial refueling, maritime surveillance, search and rescue (SAR), and specialized missions.
One WC-135R Nuclear Sniffer has been deployed to Mildenhall, UK. The WC-135R detects atmospheric radioactivity, usually monitoring for nuclear weapons tests or accidents.
Three E-11A Battlefield Airborne Communications Node (BACN) aircraft have been deployed to Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.
The E-11A, based on the Bombardier Global 6000/BD-700 business jet, is designed to act as a high-altitude “Wi-Fi in the sky” communications relay.
Three E-3 Sentry AWACS have been deployed to Mildenhall, UK.
One RC-135 SIGINT, specializing in near-real-time detection, identification, and geolocation of adversary communications and electronic emissions, has been deployed to Chania, Greece.
Six EA-18 Growlers, an advanced carrier-based electronic warfare (EW) aircraft, have been deployed to Muwaffaq Salti air base in Jordan.
The US has also deployed more than 24 F-15 Eagles, more than 35 F-35s, F-22 Raptors, F-16s, and A-10 Thunderbolt ground-attack aircraft.
The US has also deployed Patriot and THAAD air defense systems to its military bases in the region. Iran is anticipated to launch a barrage of missiles on Israel and US military bases in the region in case of a US attack, and thus, Washington is boosting its air defense assets in the region.
Besides, hundreds of US fighter jets are also deployed on the two aircraft carriers.
The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group (CSG) has been deployed in CENTCOM since January. Meanwhile, earlier this month, President Trump also ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford, its newest and largest aircraft carrier, to be deployed to the region.
On board these two aircraft carriers are over 200 aircraft, including F/A-18 Super Hornets, EA-18 Growlers, MH-60 Seahawks, F-35C, and E-2D Hawkeyes.
The US Navy has 13 ships in the region, including nine destroyers equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles and capable of defending against ballistic missiles, as well as an unspecified number of submarines.
The US already had nearly 40,000 troops deployed to its 18 military bases in the region. The two aircraft carriers also have over 10,000 US troops, bringing the total to over 50,000.
All this is in addition to the Israeli Air Force, which is already the region’s strongest air power.
With these assets, the US could easily sustain an offensive air campaign against Iran for several weeks.
The US military buildup is technically the region’s largest since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, even though the resources moved for the war dwarfed current assets, said Michael O’Hanlon, a defense and foreign policy analyst at the Brookings Institution.
O’Hanlon suggested that the US could simply use long-range B-2 bombers, as it had in June, if it wanted only to strike what’s left of Iran’s nuclear program. The forces in place now are clearly designed to attack targets in Iran and to defend against retaliation.
However, it must be noted that the US deployed more than 500,000 troops during Operation Desert Storm in the early 1990s and roughly 250,0000 American forces in Iraq in 2003.
This time, however, the US is only focusing on amassing air and naval assets in the region, with no corresponding surge in ground troops.
This suggests that the coming military operation will primarily be an air campaign and will not involve boots on the ground.
While this is no surprise, given President Trump’s well-known aversion to putting boots on the ground, it remains debatable to what extent the US could achieve its objectives against Iran only by an air campaign.
The US has four broad objectives in Iran: Dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, degrading its missile capabilities, forcing Tehran to disband its proxy network in the region (Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah), and regime change in Tehran.
While Iran might be willing to accept some compromise on the nuclear issue, as well as on its support for its proxies, there is very little chance of Iran offering any concessions on its missile program or regime change talks.
“If what Trump really wants to do is affect the regime and set back its ability to use missiles to attack American bases, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf States, it would probably have to be an intense operation that would last weeks or possibly months,” said Eliot Cohen, a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“It seems that the Trump administration has decided that it is going to attack Iran again, and I presume in conjunction with the Israelis. What the objectives are, we have yet to see. Can it be contained? Will others be drawn in? These are all really important questions, and we don’t have answers,” said Barbara Slavi, distinguished fellow at Stimson Center.
The US has already spent billions of dollars in transporting these assets to the region, and since Iran is unlikely to offer Washington any substantial concessions, a US-Iran war is now highly likely.
The only question is how long this air campaign will last.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
- THIS IS AN OPINION ARTICLE. VIEWS PERSONAL OF THE AUTHOR
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
