In warfare, there are often moments when we leave an era behind and enter a new epoch. Usually, such moments come every few decades. However, high-intensity wars could witness multiple such moments within a few years.
In the twentieth century, the Second World War was one such epochal moment that changed warfare forever.
The Trinity nuclear test in July 1945 was one such moment. The arrival of the nuclear bomb not only ended the Second World War, but according to many analysts, the doctrine of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) ensured that the Third World War did not happen.
Earlier, the Billy Mitchell moment heralded the end of the battleships.
Mitchell, as the Assistant Chief of the U.S. military’s new Air Service, tried to impress upon the US Navy that bombers could sink battleships and that a thousand bombers could be built for the cost of one battleship.
Mitchell was initially dismissed by US Generals who were dead sure about the utility of battleships with big guns. Mitchell demonstrated the effectiveness of bombers in military exercises on numerous occasions, when small planes sank big battleships, yet no one took him seriously. The US Navy was dismissive of him, and few believed that flimsy planes could outperform big battleships.
But Mitchell was proved right some years later during the Second World War, when flimsy planes repeatedly sank big battleships even before they could fire their big guns.
In the Russia-Ukraine war, we have witnessed multiple Billy Mitchell moments. Earlier, the First Person View (FPV) drones and the Fibre-Optic drones dramatically transformed land and aerial warfare.
In the Ukraine War, drones account for nearly 70% of the casualties, as they replace traditional artillery on the battlefield and threaten to make tanks obsolete.
Spectacularly, in June, Ukraine launched Operation Spider’s Web, using cheap drones to destroy Russian long-range strategic bombers, such as Tu-95, Tu-22M3, Tu-160, and A-50 planes, worth over USD 7 billion.
Now, the sea drones (Unmanned Surface Vehicles ‘USVs’ and Unmanned Underwater Vehicles ‘UUVs’) are changing Naval Warfare in ways we are only beginning to understand.
How USVs & UUVs Are Transforming Naval Warfare
Drones could be the great levelers in modern warfare.
When the war began in 2022, Ukraine had no navy worth its name. In contrast, Russia had a formidable Black Sea Fleet, including cruise-missile-armed frigates, submarines (including Kilo-class capable of launching Kalibr missiles), corvettes, landing ships, and the flagship cruiser Moskva.
Russia’s fleet numbered around 80 vessels, and Moscow was confident that it would be able to enforce a naval blockade of Ukraine in the Black Sea.
Three years down the line, the naval blockade of Ukraine remains a distant dream, and Russia’s Black Sea fleet is tattered.
Courtesy of Ukrainian drones, USVs, and UUVS, Moscow has not only failed to dominate the Black Sea but has even lost nearly one-third of its pre-war Black Sea fleet, including Moskva, corvettes such as Ivanovets and Sergey Kotov, landing ships (Tsezar Kunikov), patrol boats, and, as per latest reports, even a Kilo-class submarine.
Despite having no conventional navy capable of direct ship-to-ship combat, Ukraine achieved one of the war’s most asymmetric successes through innovation and unconventional tactics.
Though Ukrainian Naval drones (USVs such as MAGURA V5/V7 and Sea Baby, and UUVs like Sub Sea Baby) have achieved many historical firsts, some of their achievements merit special mention:
(a) In December 2024, Ukrainian MAGURA V5 used modified R-73 air-to-air missiles (repurposed as “Sea Dragon” surface-to-air missiles) to shoot down two Russian Mi-8 helicopters during a battle near Crimea. This was the first time in history that a naval drone destroyed aerial targets.
Today, Ukraine struck a Russian Mi-8 helicopter with a Magura V5 naval strike drone equipped with R-73 “SeaDragon” missiles off the coast of Cape Tarkhankut, Crimea.
Another helicopter was also hit by fire but was able to reach its base airfield. pic.twitter.com/mZ5hGsFyD0
— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) December 31, 2024
(b) In May this year, Ukrainian MAGURA V7 USV used AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles to shoot down a Russian Su-30SM fighter jet over the Black Sea. This marked the first time in history that a naval drone destroyed a manned combat aircraft.
💥🛩️ On May 2, 2025, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence (HUR MO) special unit Group 13, in coordination with the SBU and Defense Forces, destroyed a Russian Su-30 fighter jet using a Magura maritime drone. This marks the first time in history a combat aircraft has been taken down by… https://t.co/ipoPhMhOa8 pic.twitter.com/pYTEX48jNs
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 3, 2025
(c) However, what Ukraine achieved in December 2025 is a new landmark in naval warfare. Ukraine claimed that it used a Sub Sea drone (UUV) to strike Russia’s Kilo-class submarine, docked at the Novorossiysk naval base. The Kilo-class submarines are armed with Kalibr cruise missiles and cost about USD 40 million each.
For the first time in history, Ukraine’s Security Service, together with the Ukrainian Navy, struck and disabled a russian Kilo-class (Project 636.3 “Varshavyanka”) submarine in Novorossiysk using underwater drones.
The cost of a Varshavyanka-class submarine is approximately $400… pic.twitter.com/QFkzGpT0nn— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 16, 2025
Implications For The Future
The innovations in the naval drones (USVs, UUVs, and high-altitude surveillance drones) will have profound implications for maritime warfare. It means that –
(a) Naval power projection, as we know it, is probably dead.
(b) Sea control, a cornerstone of naval power projection, will fundamentally change with the advent of UUVs, USVs, aerial drones, and high-altitude long-range surveillance drones.
(c) The role of big naval platforms, large aircraft carriers, and big submarines will also change. Their size is no longer a strategic asset but a strategic vulnerability. Instead, smaller, highly mobile, and high-speed platforms will become key in naval warfare.
(d) Aircraft carriers will remain relevant; however, their role will not be sea domination, but they will be used essentially as launching platforms for drones, aircraft, and missiles. They will be kept mostly away from high-risk zones and will operate at a safe distance.
(e) Smaller navies will focus on sea denial instead of aiming for sea domination. Through the innovative use of naval drones, even smaller navies can fight asymmetric warfare and blunt the advantages of larger, stronger navies.
(f) One does not need large navies, hundreds of destroyers, submarines, aircraft carriers, or patrol boats for enforcing port blockades. Hundreds of smaller UUVs & USVs, supported by a naval fleet parked thousands of miles away from high-risk zones and high-altitude surveillance drones, can enforce an effective port blockade.
(g) Long-range anti-ship hypersonic missiles will become more critical and can make aircraft carriers obsolete in some decades.
Talking about the changes, the effective use of sea drones will bring to naval warfare, defense analyst Patricia Marins said: “The traditional concept of a navy capable of power projection is giving way to one of omnipresence: hundreds of UUVs, constant monitoring by high-altitude drones, and operations conducted within the envelope of long-range missiles.
“Ships can be target from other continent. We never had this technological situation before. The old idea of global projection, maintaining presence in multiple oceans with advanced logistics (at-sea replenishment, alliances, and distant bases), will increasingly be seen as a massive waste of money.”
Is The US Seventh Fleet Vulnerable?
Seventh Fleet is the largest of the U.S. Navy’s forward-deployed fleets. At any given time, there are 50-70 ships and submarines, 150 aircraft, and more than 27,000 Sailors and Marines in the Seventh Fleet.
Seventh Fleet‘s area of operations spans more than 124 million square kilometers, stretching from the International Date Line to the India/Pakistan border, and from the Kuril Islands in the North to the Antarctic in the South.
Its area of operations includes some of the US’s largest adversaries, China, Russia, and North Korea, and five US Mutual Defense Treaty Allies: the Philippines, Australia, the Republic of Korea, Japan, and Thailand.
USS George Washington (CVN 73) is currently the Navy’s forward-deployed aircraft carrier in Seventh Fleet. USS George Washington is permanently forward-deployed to Yokosuka, Japan, and spends about half of each year at sea.
USS George Washington, when combined with guided-missile destroyers and cruisers, creates a carrier strike group of up to 12 ships and 75 aircraft.
Besides, Seventh Fleet controls 10-14 destroyers and cruisers at any given time. These surface ships carry Theater Ballistic Missile interceptors, long-range Tomahawk land-attack missiles, and anti-aircraft missiles.
There are also 8-12 nuclear-powered submarines in the Seventh Fleet.
This is a formidable naval force. However, with innovations in USVs, UUVs, and hypersonic anti-ship missiles, the Seventh Fleet looks increasingly vulnerable.
In a potential conflict in the South China Sea, Beijing will enjoy some distinct advantages:
(a) Firstly, China will be fighting in its own backyard, and can use its land bases to launch attacks; however, the US will need to depend on sea and its allies’ bases.
(b) China is years ahead of the US in hypersonic anti-ship missiles. China’s hypersonic missile, like the DF-26, has an operational range of 3000-5000 km. The DF-27 hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) is an intermediate-range missile system with a reported range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers.
In contrast, the US’s anti-ship missiles, such as LRASM, SM-6, Harpoon, Maritime Strike Tomahawk (MST), and Naval Strike Missile (NSM), are subsonic and have a range of only 500-1500 km.
(c) China also has a distinct advantage over the US when it comes to drone technology. Furthermore, given China’s industrial capacity, Beijing can scale drone production much faster than the US.
Last month, China unveiled its new Wing Loong X, a drone claimed to be able to detect and attack submarines autonomously.
Earlier this month, China unveiled its new extra-extra-large underwater drones (XXLUUVs), with a range of over 10,000 nautical miles and capable of reaching the US West Coast.
China is testing two extra-extra-large underwater drones (XXLUUVs) in the South China Sea. The largest underwater drones in the world by some margin, they rival crewed submarines in terms of size.
"CHINA'S LATEST UNDERWATER DRONES MAY POSE A THREAT TO THE U.S. WEST COAST"
Recent reports from defense analysts highlight China's development and testing of extra-extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicles (XXLUUVs), massive autonomous underwater drones comparable in size to… pic.twitter.com/Yjvmko5c6X
— WORLD AT WAR (@World_At_War_6) December 14, 2025
Earlier this year, China unveiled the world’s first aerial and underwater drone, “Feiyi,” which is launched from a submarine and can swim underwater and fly.
China is also making significant strides in developing combat USVs, underwater drones, and high-altitude stealth drones.
In time, China can link its high-altitude stealth drones with its hypersonic anti-ship missiles for midcourse guidance from these platforms.
By fielding hundreds of USVs, UUVs, high-altitude stealth drones, and unmanned submarine vehicles, together with long-range hypersonic anti-ship missiles, Beijing can neutralize the Seventh Fleet and even blunt Washington’s advantage in nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines.
Just as land and aerial warfare are changing at hyper-sonic velocity, naval warfare is also transforming, and drones are the future. A dispersed, nimble, highly mobile, and connected navy will be key to winning future maritime conflicts.
