In a country where the President has been accused of breaking the law since 2003, the trial of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro on charges of planning a coup d’etat opens today in the Supreme Court.
If convicted, the 70-year-old far-right politician, who is battling serious health conditions and has just undergone intestinal surgeries, could serve up to 40 years in prison.
The trial of former presidents is not surprising in Brazil. In 2016, the then-President, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached for fiddling public accounts. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula, was jailed for corruption and is now President again.
Bolsonaro’s alleged crime is plotting a coup to stay in power after narrowly losing the 2022 election to Lula.
More than 80 people—including high-ranking military officers, former government ministers, and police and intelligence officials—are to testify in a preliminary trial phase that is expected to last at least two weeks.
Prosecutors say Bolsonaro led a “criminal organization” planning to declare a state of emergency so new elections could be held.
Incidentally, Bolsonaro is already banned from seeking office until 2030 over his baseless criticism of Brazil’s electronic voting system.
He stands accused of being aware of a plot to assassinate Lula, his vice president Geraldo Alckmin, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes — a Bolsonaro foe and one of the judges hearing the current case.
In fact, Bolsonaro could even face the death penalty, along with seven former aides, if charges are proven. They include four former ministers, one former navy commander, and the head of intelligence services during Bolsonaro’s 2019-2022 presidency.
A nearly 900-page report by the federal police lays out the alleged coup plan in detail, saying it called for a decree ordering a new election — and for Lula’s assassination.
Bolsonaro has always denied any role in a coup attempt, blaming the charges on “political persecution.”
The charges against him cover the riots of January 8, 2023, when thousands of Bolsonaro supporters invaded and sacked key government buildings, demanding a “military intervention” to oust Lula a week after his inauguration.
Bolsonaro was in the United States that day, but is suspected of having been behind the riots, which prosecutors say were the coup plotters’ “last hope.”
Now, everything depends on the Court, which has inexorably gained clout and prestige in recent years as the executive branch has lost legitimacy and Congress has been mired in gridlock and scandal.
Incidentally, instead of the court’s full bench of 11, a panel of five judges will decide whether Bolsonaro goes to jail. One of the five is Lula’s former personal lawyer, and another is his former justice minister. The trial thus risks reinforcing the perception that the court is guided as much by politics as by the law.
During Lava Jato (“Car Wash”), a gigantic corruption probe that ran through the 2010s, the court upheld jail sentences for dozens of politicians and businessmen found guilty of graft, but then changed its mind and nullified Lula’s convictions in 2021 on procedural grounds.
The judges, led by de Moraes, whom Bolsonaro supporters see as Enemy Number One, will question key figures that the court will discuss today via video conference.
During those hearings, “it will be possible to identify any contradictions, either between different witnesses or from the same witness,” Rogerio Taffarello, an expert in criminal law at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, told AFP.
“Only after that step can a case for conviction be built,” he said.
Witnesses are to include generals Marco Antonio Freire Gomes and Carlos de Almeida Baptista Junior, respectively the army and air force commanders under the Bolsonaro presidency.
In earlier testimony before federal police, both men admitted having been present in meetings in which Bolsonaro “raised the hypothetical possibility of using legal instruments” to overturn the 2022 election result and justify a military intervention.
But both officers said they refused to go along, and Freire Gomes said he even threatened to have Bolsonaro arrested if he went ahead with it.
Following the introductory phase, the trial will continue in the coming months with testimony from the accused, followed by a summation from prosecutors and final arguments by defense attorneys.
Whether Bolsonaro goes to jail or not, there will be massive political upheaval in the country, which may not be good news for 79-year-old Leftist President Lula. Brazil is sharply polarized politically.
All told, Lula may be the President, but the Brazilian right and far-right — which together hold the majority in parliament. Challengers to Bolsonaro may start arising as he fights the charges against him.
All the more so, as even if acquitted, Bolsonaro will need to overcome a ban on him holding public office until 2030 — imposed after he was found guilty of spreading misinformation about Brazil’s voting system during the 2022 campaign he lost.
However, Bolsonaro has insisted he will be the candidate of the political right, of which he remains the unchallenged leader, in the 2026 elections. Some opinion polls show him beating Lula, who has not stated whether he will seek re-election amid concerns over his health and low approval ratings.
Bolsonaro will likely campaign throughout his trial, expected to be held soon, so as not to be seen to interfere with the election build-up.
“Bolsonaro will go as far as he can with his candidacy to keep his support base as enthusiastic as possible,” said analyst Marcio Coimbra of the Casa Politica think tank. Observers say he will likely pick his charismatic wife, Michele, or one of his politician sons as a running mate to continue the campaign in the event his candidacy is ruled out.
“If he is convicted, he could become a martyr,” said Jose Niemeyer, a professor of international relations at Brazil’s Ibmec University.
