After days of speculations and years of warning, Israel struck Iran’s nuclear plant and military sites under Operation Rising Lion on June 13. However, as it turns out, the strikes did not cause the kind of “damage” that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had planned.
In the aftermath of the strikes, Netanyahu said, Israel’s operation struck at the “heart of Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme.” He emphasized that Israel’s strikes on Iranian infrastructure had set its nuclear program back by years.
Visuals and satellite images published after the strike revealed damage caused by Israeli strikes on multiple sites, including the most important of them all—the Natanz, Iran’s primary uranium enrichment facility.
Natanz has been on Israel’s radar for years and is known to house a large underground uranium enrichment facility, as well as a smaller above-ground pilot enrichment facility at the location.
In the aftermath of the strike, Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), informed the UN Security Council that the above-ground part of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant, where Iran was producing uranium enriched up to 60% U-235, had been destroyed. U-235 is necessary for nuclear power stations and nuclear weapons.
After conducting strikes, the IDF claimed to have destroyed the underground uranium enrichment facilities, which are key to making a weapon.
These claims were amplified by pro-Israeli and Western media have carried several reports suggesting large-scale damage at Natanz, including to the underground enrichment facility. Some reports, for instance, claimed that the underground facility might have imploded.
Natanz On Fire?
Putting all speculations to rest, the IAEA Chief announced on June 16 that the enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow showed no signs of additional damage. The agency clearly stated there was “no indication of a physical attack” on the underground section of Iran’s Natanz uranium enrichment site.
“There has been no indication of a physical attack on the underground cascade hall containing part of the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant and the main Fuel Enrichment Plant,” International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi said in a statement to an extraordinary board session. “However, the loss of power to the cascade hall may have damaged the centrifuges there,” he added.
Based on info available to the IAEA, this is the current situation at the Iranian nuclear sites in Natanz, Fordow, Khondab, Bushehr, and Esfahan. pic.twitter.com/gTvJrYzPFW
— IAEA – International Atomic Energy Agency ⚛️ (@iaeaorg) June 16, 2025
He said there was some damage at the Isfahan nuclear facilities, where Israeli strikes over the weekend damaged four buildings, including the uranium conversion facility that converts “yellowcake” uranium into uranium hexafluoride, the feedstock for centrifuges, so it can then be enriched.
“At the Esfahan nuclear site, four buildings were damaged in Friday’s attack: the central chemical laboratory, a uranium conversion plant, the Tehran reactor fuel manufacturing plant, and the UF4 (uranium tetrafluoride) to EU metal processing facility, which was under construction,” he said.
Additionally, Grossi also disclosed that the Fordow enrichment site, buried beneath a mountain and defended by anti-aircraft guns, did not sustain any damage. It appears that the Fordow site is built to survive airstrikes.
Separately, the IAEA chief warned that while radiation levels outside the complex are currently normal, there is a chance that Iran’s primary nuclear enrichment plant in Natanz may be contaminated chemically and radiologically.
Notably, the fresh update provided by the UN watchdog should mean that Israel has not been able to set the Iranian nuclear program back by years. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had earlier announced that it had succeeded in destroying both the above-ground and underground Natanz nuclear sites, including the crucial centrifuge fleet.
Israel has since refuted the announcement made by Grossi, arguing that the findings are wrong, as reported by the Jerusalem Post.
Earlier, US-based think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), had stated: “If key sites like Fordow and Esfahan are not severely damaged in future strikes and underground advanced centrifuges remain operational at Fordow and Natanz, Iran could continue its nuclear development. “
Several observers have since noted that the Iranian nuclear facilities have only received moderate damage, perhaps enough to slow down the potential development of a nuclear weapon, but not enough to eliminate that threat for a few years.
Some military experts have drawn attention to the fact that Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities are several meters underground, which enhances their survivability.
At Natanz, there are two facilities. The fuel enrichment facility, the major location, is thought to be 8–12 meters below the ground. Meanwhile, the Fordow is 80-90 meters under a mountain.
According to military analysts, it would probably need several hits from 1.8-ton Rocks or 1.6-ton Air Lora missiles to destroy it. Some even say it would not be possible for Israel to destroy them unless the US Air Force (USAF) enters the war and drops heavy bunker-buster bombs like the GBU-57A, known as the Mother of All Bombs.
It is pertinent to note that centrifuges are critical for enriching uranium. The number, type, and operational status of centrifuges determine enrichment capacity, which reflects how quickly Iran can produce enriched uranium.
The damage to these centrifuges is likely to slow down the enrichment, not derail it. This means that they can be restored in time, depending on Iran’s capability to rebuild.
The program has certainly received a jolt from the targeted killing of at least nine key nuclear scientists, including prominent figures like Fereydoun Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi.
Rebuilding this expertise will take years, as nuclear programs rely heavily on specialized knowledge and expertise.
Iran Has Fresh Impetus To Advance The Program
Iran views its nuclear program, which has been in the works for decades, as a source of pride and sovereignty. It insists that the program is only meant for peaceful energy and intends to construct more nuclear power plants to meet domestic energy demands and increase the amount of oil available for export.
However, the UN watchdog has found some discrepancies.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported earlier that Iran has amassed more than 400 kilograms (881 pounds) of 60% enriched uranium.
That degree of enrichment is nearly weapons-grade and well above what is required for the production of energy for civilian use. Nuclear warheads can be made at 90% enrichment.
While negotiating a deal with the Trump administration, Tehran repeatedly has stated that it will remove its weapons-grade uranium stockpile in exchange for the lifting of US-led sanctions.
However, it has refused to part with its nuclear program altogether, which it considers essential for the future of the West Asian country.
Israel, the US, and the rest of the region and beyond see Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons as extremely dangerous.
For Israel, a nuclear-armed Iran would be an existential threat. Currently, Israel is the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons.
Currently, there is growing concern that Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities and the continuing bombing of its energy infrastructure and refineries could give the country’s leadership the impetus to now pursue a nuclear bomb. “One of the concerns in attacking the nuclear sites has been that setbacks could lead Iran to reconstitute its operations with a more determined effort to obtain a nuclear deterrent,” Ali Vaez, an expert on Iran for the International Crisis Group (ICG), told Al Jazeera.
Reformers and hardliners in Iran have long been engaged in an internal dispute about whether or not to achieve a nuclear agreement with the United States. Some experts have cautioned that the attack would give more leeway to the ultra hardliners who have fiercely opposed the idea of a deal with the United States.
With Israel still bombing Iran on fourth day of the campaign, Esmaeil Baghaei, the spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry, said on June 16 that the Iranian parliament, was working on a bill to withdraw Iran from the 1968 NPT agreement, which requires it to give up nuclear weapons and submit to international inspections to ensure compliance.
Baghaei added that Tehran remained opposed to the development of weapons of mass destruction.
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