By Sumit Ahlawat
After the first round of air strikes on Iran, one thing that is clear is that this time the objective is not just dismantling the Iranian nuclear weapons programme, or degrading its war-waging capabilities, but changing the radical Islamist regime itself.
Last year in June, when Israel launched its offensive, it targeted Iranian air defense assets, military command centers, top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leadership, and nuclear scientists.
Similarly, when the US briefly joined the bombing campaign (Operation Midnight Hammer) on June 22, 2025, it targeted the three Iranian nuclear sites, Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan.
This time, however, the opening salvo of US and Israeli strikes went after only one target: the radical Islamist regime in Tehran.
And the prime target was none other than the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
When you target the Supreme Leader of a country in your first strike, there is no turning back, there is no off-ramp, and there is no scope for editorial spin.
The message from Tel Aviv and Washington was as clear as it could get; we’re coming for the Iranian regime, it is not about nuclear program, or ballistic missiles, or even the support for non-state actors like Hamas, Houthis, and Hezbollah, it is about obliterating the very source of all these troubles, the Islamist regime in Tehran.
“The goal is to create all the conditions for the downfall of the Iranian regime,” an Israeli official was quoted as saying by Axios.
While Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s Tehran command center was bombed, there is yet no clarity on whether he was there at the time of the strike.
Reuters, citing sources, reported that the 86-year-old Khamenei was not at his office when the strikes occurred and had been moved to a secure location outside Tehran.
However, Israeli confidence has grown over the course of the day that he has been assassinated.
Senior Israeli officials said that Khamenei is dead and his body has been recovered from the ruins of his palace.
Regardless of whether or not he has been killed, effecting a regime change in Tehran is not as simple as just eliminating Khamenei.
In Venezuela, it was possible to claim victory and put in place a puppet regime after abducting Maduro, but that is not the case in Tehran.
Despite the massive anti-regime protests in Iran earlier this year, the Islamist regime in Tehran does enjoy a degree of popular support.
Moreover, there is nothing to suggest that the Iranian military or the IRGC will betray the regime.
Furthermore, Khamenei has put in place an elaborate succession plan so that the regime could continue even if he were killed.
In fact, chances are that if Khamenei is eliminated, he will be replaced by someone who is even more radical.
Israel understands this, and therefore, it went after the whole Iranian leadership.
Up to dozens of top Iranian officials may have been assassinated collectively at a few different meetings, the Jerusalem Post reported.
Israeli officials said that they are targeting the entire Iranian leadership — political and military, past, present, and future.
So the target is not just the current leadership, but also the past and future leadership.
For instance, even former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was targeted. Ahmadinejad has been out of power for 13 years, but crucially, it was under him that Iran restarted its uranium enrichment program in 2005.
Similarly, strikes targeted those who could replace the Supreme Leader Khamenei.
Israeli officials say that many of the top Iranian leaders might have been killed; however, they are waiting for confirmation.
Regardless, for a regime-change operation to be successful, Israel must eliminate these 10 leaders.
Ali Khamenei: Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989, he holds ultimate authority over government, military, and judiciary, serving as the spiritual and political anchor of the regime.
Khamenei is also considered the chief architect of Iran’s nuclear weapons program and its ballistic missile program.
It was under him that Iran built its proxy non-state actors across the region, from Hamas, Houthis, to Hezbollah.
It was under his direction that Iran decided to fight proxy wars in Iraq and Syria.
The IRGC is answerable directly and exclusively to Khamenei.
Under his rule, he has consistently sidelined moderate politicians who advocated a conciliatory approach to the West.
For any successful regime change in Tehran, his elimination is a must.
Israel is confident that he has been killed, though there is no final confirmation.
Masoud Pezeshkian: He is the serving President. He ran for the office as a moderate and was elected President in 2024.
However, he has continued Iran’s support to its proxies.
His offices were reportedly hit in Israeli strikes. However, Iranian state media and officials stated that he survived the attack.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: He is the Parliament Speaker and has a military background. He acts as a de facto deputy to the wartime commander and could influence post-conflict restructuring.
Ali Larijani: He is the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC). He is a key figure in foreign policy and security decisions.
Larijani has been Khamenei’s stand-in to run the country in recent weeks, as the ayatollah went underground to try to avoid assassination.
According to reports, he might have been killed.
Mojtaba Khamenei: He is the son of the Supreme Leader and a potential successor. He wields behind-the-scenes influence through ties to security forces and the IRGC.
Mohammad Pakpour: He is the Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He leads the regime’s elite military force, critical for internal control and external operations.
He was appointed IRGC Commander in June 2025, after his predecessor was killed in Israeli air strikes during the 12-day war last year.
According to the Jerusalem Post, he might have been killed in the initial strikes.
Amir Nasirzadeh: The Iranian Defense Minister. He oversees conventional armed forces and defense strategy, with a background in air force command. Israeli officials believe he is dead.
Ali Shamkhani: He has been the Senior Advisor to the Supreme Leader on security and nuclear issues for over a decade. He has served as the IRGC Navy commander and is influential in strategic decisions. He is also believed to be dead, though he was also thought to be killed in the June 2025 Operation, and at that time survived.
Abbas Araghchi: Foreign Minister; shapes Iran’s international relations and diplomacy, especially amid tensions with the West.
Sadeq Larijani: He is the Head of the Expediency Discernment Council and a potential successor to Khamenei. He oversees judicial and advisory roles, maintaining ideological alignment.
So, of the top 10 Iranian leaders, Israel believes that as many as five, including the Supreme Leader, the IRGC Chief, the Defense Minister, and two potential successors to Khamenei, might be dead. However, there is no official confirmation yet.
If indeed five of the top 10 leaders are dead, this is a spectacular success for Israeli and US strikes, and is a testament to the impeccable Israeli intelligence network inside Iran.
“Three sites where gatherings of the Iranian regime were taking place were struck simultaneously, and several senior figures essential to the management of the campaign and the regime’s governance were eliminated,” an Israel Defense Forces official said.
However, even if all five are dead, there is no certainty that it would lead to a regime change in Tehran.
Israeli officials are also acknowledging that, without a popular internal rebellion in Iran, regime change could be difficult.
“The goal is to create all the conditions for the downfall of the Iranian regime, but developments will also depend on the extent to which the Iranian people rise up,” Axios quoted an Israeli official as saying.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
