A major diplomatic realignment is underway in global geopolitics, which could force the US to reassess its Indo-Pacific strategy and potentially cost Western defense firms billions of dollars in defense contracts.
Indonesia, one of the founding members of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), which has historically pursued a balanced foreign policy, often described as “bebas dan aktif” (free and active), is making notable “changes” to its foreign policy.
In a move that can be described as a diplomatic setback for the West, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto skipped the G7 summit in Canada and instead visited Russia and met President Vladimir Putin.
Subianto met Russian counterpart Putin on June 19 and hailed growing ties with Moscow in a burgeoning relationship that has caused concern among some of Jakarta’s Western allies.
The former Indonesian general’s decision to skip the G7 summit in Canada this week in favour of talks with Putin has raised fears of a tilt towards Moscow, analysts say.
“Today we have met and our relationship is getting stronger again,” Prabowo said in a statement after talks in Saint Petersburg. “My meeting with President Putin today was intense, warm and productive. In all fields of economics, technical cooperation, trade, investment, agriculture, they all have experienced significant improvements.”
Putin said Indonesia remained one of Russia’s “key partners” in the Asia-Pacific region.
“Our relations are mutually beneficial and are steadily developing on the basis of long-standing traditions of friendship and mutual assistance,” he said.
Prabowo thanked Putin for his support for Indonesia’s entry into the 11-member BRICS bloc this year.
The Indonesian leader visited Putin in July as president-elect and has not yet visited Ukraine, unlike his predecessor, Joko Widodo.
Russia has praised Indonesia’s balanced view of its military campaign in Ukraine. Indonesia maintains a neutral foreign policy, walking the diplomatic tightrope between regional competitors Beijing and Washington.
Prabowo will also attend an economic forum in Saint Petersburg on June 20.
Indonesia’s Oriental Tilt Could Cost Western Firms Billions
Prabowo has sought to diversify Jakarta’s alliances, rather than relying solely on Western partners, which has caused anxiety that he may deviate from the traditional non-aligned foreign policy.
However, Indonesia’s tilt towards Russia and China could also result in substantial economic losses for Western defense firms.
Notably, Indonesia is currently on a fighter jet shopping spree.
In recent months, Indonesia has explored a range of combat aircraft, including the Chinese J-10C, the Turkish KAAN, the American F-15EX, the French Rafale, the Russian Su-35, and even the South Korean KF-21.
Last week, reports emerged that Indonesia had finalized a deal for the under-development Turkish fifth-generation stealth aircraft, the TF Kaan. There were reports that Turkey will export 48 KAAN fighter jets to Indonesia.
“As part of the agreement signed with our friendly and brotherly country, Indonesia, 48 Kaan (fighter jets) will be produced in Turkey and exported to Indonesia,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrote on X.
However, contrary to the narrative amplified by Turkish media, the Indonesian government clarified that it has not finalized the agreement to purchase 48 KAAN fighter jets, as the numbers and terms of the agreement were still under discussion.
Notably, Indonesia is also exploring the option of buying Russian Su-35 fighter jets.
The Su-35 deal, initially announced in 2018, entailed Indonesia purchasing 11 Su-35s from Russia for $1.14 billion, with Moscow obligated to accept 50% of the contract value in local commodities, alongside a 35% offset requirement.
However, the deal ultimately failed to materialize due to budgetary constraints exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and apprehensions surrounding potential US sanctions.
The enactment of the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions (CAATSA) by former US President Donald Trump in 2017 intensified Indonesia’s concerns.
Despite that, Indonesia did not permanently close the option of purchasing Su-35. In May last year, the then-Indonesian Ambassador to Russia, Jose Tavares, stated that the agreement had not been terminated.
Meanwhile, the Russian Ambassador to Indonesia, Sergei Tolchenov, said in January 2025 that the Su-35 fighter jet deal with Jakarta remained “on the table.”
The Russian Su-35 is a formidable combat aircraft that has proven its capability in the ongoing Ukraine war. Derived from the Su-27, it is a single-seat, twin-engine, supermaneuverable multirole fighter jet.
It is often classified as a 4++ generation fighter, with Russians saying that it bridges the gap between fourth- and fifth-generation jets with its enhanced avionics, weapons, and performance capabilities.
Since Indonesia already operates the Su-27 and Su-30, the Russian Su-35 will easily integrate into its air force. Additionally, Russia is likely to offer a flexible payment method to cash-strapped Indonesia.
Many defense experts believe that a Su-35 deal could be announced during President Prabowo Subianto’s visit to Russia.
Defense deals, especially the high-profile deals for fighter jets, are often accompanied by geopolitical realignments. If the optics of President Subianto skipping the G7 summit invite, where Ukrainian President Zelenskyy was a special invitee, to meet President Putin is anything to go by, then a Su-35 deal seems very much on cards.
The two countries have strengthened their relationship considerably in the last few years. Notably, Indonesia is deepening its security and defense partnership with Russia, when Moscow is struggling with unprecedented Western sanctions due to its war in Ukraine.
Indonesia and Russia conducted their first bilateral naval exercise, named “Orruda Joint Training”, in the Java Sea near Surabaya last year.
The five-day exercise, which concluded on November 8, 2024, involved Russian corvette-class warships, a tanker, a helicopter, and a tugboat. This exercise marked a significant step in Indonesia’s defense relations with Russia, as it was the first time Jakarta engaged in naval drills solely with Moscow.
Indonesia’s closer ties with Moscow have also sparked concern in Indonesia’s neighbour, Australia. Speculation in April over a reported Russian request to use an Indonesian air base forced Canberra to seek clarification from its Southeast Asian security partner.
Russia’s Gain Could Be Boeing’s Loss
However, a potential Su-35 deal could deliver the knock-out blow to Indonesia’s plans to acquire Boeing’s F-15EX fighter jets.
Indonesia signed a memorandum of understanding with Boeing in 2022 to acquire up to 24 F-15EX fighters. According to recent reports, the government has not abandoned the planned F-15EX purchase, despite ongoing questions about the $8 billion price tag for just two dozen fighter jets.
Additionally, Indonesia was recently offered the Chinese J-10CE.
Earlier this month, Indonesian Deputy Defense Minister Donny Ermawan Taufanto confirmed that China offered the J-10C jets to the country when the Indonesian Air Force representatives visited China.
The Minister stated that the government was evaluating whether the aircraft could meet operational requirements and whether it could be integrated with existing Indonesian platforms.
He emphasized that the review is still in its early stages and that Jakarta has not dispatched a team to conduct a technical examination or follow up on the offer.
“This is just an offer,” Taufanto said, indicating that the discussions are currently in a very nascent stage. “We have had talks with China and they offered us a lot, not just J-10, but also ships, arms, frigates,” said Taufanto.
Indonesia has a limited defense budget. They are actively exploring all aircraft from all countries, which indicates they want to continue their Non-Aligned policy. There is no point in picking two air superiority fighters from different nations; they will either go with the Russian Su-35 or the American F-15EX. They could even acquire more French multi-role Rafale fighters.
Skipping the G7 summit to meet Putin is a very bold step. Clearly, Indonesia appears to be heading towards the Sino-Russian camp under Subianto. If the country proceeds with the Russian Su-35 or even the Chinese J-10, it would be a significant setback for the US-led West, especially as Washington seeks to bolster its Indo-Pacific presence.
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Nitin J Ticku is the Managing Editor of the EurAsian Times. He holds a double Master’s degree in Journalism and Business Management and has nearly 20 years of global experience. CONTACT The Author at: Nytten (at) gmail.com
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With Inputs From AFP
