America’s longest-serving President, Franklin D. Roosevelt, once said that “In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.”
It seems that these days, Turkey is living by this maxim, especially when it comes to interpreting every move India makes.
Ankara is interpreting events happening hundreds and thousands of miles away from India as New Delhi’s doing and directed at just one target, Turkey.
Turkey and India are not friends. Both countries are allying with each other’s adversary in their immediate neighborhood. Turkey with Pakistan and India with Cyprus, Greece, Israel, and Armenia.
Turkey is arming Pakistan and Bangladesh in India’s neighborhood, and New Delhi is boosting the military capabilities of Armenia and Greece in Turkey’s neighborhood.
Both countries are also in opposing alliances on the international stage. Turkey has built a trilateral anti-India alliance with Pakistan and Azerbaijan. Reportedly, Turkey was also considering joining the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia mutual defense agreement, a prospective alliance termed an Islamic NATO.
India, on the other hand, is allying with the UAE, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Armenia.
So, obviously, there is no love lost between India and Turkey.
However, has Turkey gone too far in reading India’s every move as directed against Ankara?
India vs Turkey
India is currently working on two international trade routes. Incidentally, both trade routes appear to be a deliberate ploy to bypass Turkey.
India is working on an Asia-Europe trade route under the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). It is a 7,200-km, multi-modal network connecting India with Central Asia, Russia, and Europe via Iran. By combining sea, rail, and road routes, it aims to reduce transit time and costs by approximately 30% compared to traditional routes.
It connects Mumbai, India, to St. Petersburg, Russia. While the route is still under development, a few consignments have already been sent.
Simultaneously, India is also working on the India-Middle East-Europe Corridor (IMEC). The corridor is a proposed route from India to Europe through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Greece.
The initiative was launched through a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) at the G20 Summit 2023 in New Delhi and could transform global energy security and trade networks.
What’s common to both trade routes is that they bypass Turkey, one passing to the East of Turkey and the other to the West of Turkey in the Mediterranean Sea.
This is a rude shock to Turkey, which has come to believe that no Asia-Europe trade route, and no trade route through the Mediterranean, is possible without Turkey.
Furthermore, just one month after the India-Pakistan War in May last year, Prime Minister Modi visited Cyprus. Notably, during this trip, he also visited the Green Line, the United Nations-patrolled demilitarised buffer zone that divides the island.
Since Turkey has openly backed Pakistan during the war, this was a direct message to Turkey, which has occupied nearly one-third of Cyprus since 1974.
Since then, the India-Turkey relationship has been on a downward spiral, to the point that Ankara now reads a message into every move New Delhi makes.
Earlier this week, PM Modi visited Israel. During the trip, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu recalled the bravery of Indian soldiers, who, during the First World War, liberated the city of Haifa from Turkish (Ottoman) occupation.
In September 1918, Indian soldiers led the charge on the port city of Haifa, which was still part of the Ottoman Empire.
In military history, this battle is also remembered as “the last great cavalry campaign in history.”
Indian cavalry battalions equipped with spears and swords drove Ottoman forces from the rocky slopes of Mount Carmel to liberate the city.
For the Allied powers, capturing Haifa was crucial, as it provided them with access to the deep-water port, enabling supplies to be brought in by sea to support the final push north into Lebanon and Syria
Once Haifa and the nearby historical city of Acre were liberated, it opened the road to Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan, and, one by one, Ottoman power began to collapse in the region.
The Marquess of Anglesey would later describe the battle for Haifa as “almost certainly the only occasion in history when a fortified town was captured by cavalry at the gallop.”
While welcoming Modi, Netanyahu paid tribute to the sacrifices made by the Indian soldiers.
“In the First World War, when we were still under Ottoman occupation, those who helped us liberate this country included the British Army, in which there were Jewish fighters. But also brave Indian soldiers and commanders, who fought like lions in the battle for the liberation of Haifa.
“When the forces were pushed back, who stormed forward and gave their lives? Indian commanders. We never forget that. They gave their lives for us,” Netanyahu said.
However, what would have been a simple tribute during a diplomatic visit was read by Ankara as a strategic message to Turkey.
Netanyahu’s reference to the Battle of Haifa was widely covered in the Turkish media.
Ibrahim Karagul, the former editor-in-chief of the pro-Erdogan newspaper Yeni Safak, who is also considered the President’s unofficial spokesperson, said that India and Israel were building a common front against Turkey.
“They united in their hatred of the Ottoman Empire! They (the Israelis) forgot those who saved them from Spain. But we will know how to remind them. We have not forgotten those who destroyed the Ottoman Empire a hundred years ago, either. This memory of ours is very much alive. Of course, in this century, there will be a price for this. This is their fear.”
Karagul also attacked India.
“To India as well; reminding them of the Mughal Empire has now become our duty,” he said, harking back to the nearly three-century-long rule by the Mughals, who were of Turkish background.
It is interesting to note that while Pakistan is thousands of miles away from Israel, and Turkey is thousands of miles away from India, the emerging alliance between Pakistan and Turkey, often in the name of the Islamic ummah, binds the interests of India with Israel.
Earlier this month, former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett warned that a new axis was emerging, which included Turkey, Qatar, the Muslim Brotherhood, and nuclear-armed Pakistan.
“The dangers of radicalism are growing on our borders. An axis of the Muslim Brotherhood, supported by Pakistani nuclear weapons, is being led by Turkey. We must work together in various ways against the Iranian threat and the Turkish hostility. Turkey is the new Iran.”
Similarly, when Israeli PM Netanyahu proposed to launch an anti-radical Hexagon alliance, including India, the Pakistani lawmakers termed it a threat to the Islamic Ummah.
Netanyahu’s “hexagon of alliances” proposal aims to build a network of partners, including Israel, India, Greece, Cyprus, and unnamed Arab, African, and Asian nations, to counter what he called the “radical Shia axis” (Iran-linked groups) and an “emerging radical Sunni axis.”
The reference to a “Sunni axis” has been widely interpreted in the media as pointing to the emerging alliance between Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and possibly Qatar.
The proposed “hexagon of alliances” grouping was described by a resolution by the Pakistani Parliament’s Senate as a threat to regional and international peace and stability.
The resolution described the pitch as a “vile proclivity of the leadership of the Israeli occupying power towards diminishing the unity and integrity of the Muslim Ummah on political and ideological grounds”.
Similarly, Karagul termed it an alliance against Turkey.
“Israel, with Greece, Greek Cyprus, India, and two regional countries whose names have not been disclosed, is forming a ‘six-country front’ against Turkey,” he said.
Karagul even termed the Pakistan-Afghanistan war as an advantage to India and Israel and a threat to Turkey.
“The Afghanistan-Pakistan war must be stopped as soon as possible. The two countries must come to their senses and abandon this blood feud. Its consequences will be devastating on a regional scale.”
“It was orchestrated as one front of the power struggle directed at the vast geography between India and Israel-Greece. This war benefits Israel and India, and both are currently overjoyed. Israel and Greece just declared the “Hexagon Alliance,” and the conflict started immediately. The two countries must not fall into this trap,” he said, adding that “Turkey’s cool-headed, friendly intervention is sorely needed.”
While Israel’s “hexagon of alliances” against the emerging radical Sunni axis might be directed against Turkey, to even read the Afghanistan-Pakistan War as a direct consequence of this alliance is a bit like stretching the argument too far, and it highlights the underlying insecurities in Turkey due to the deepening strategic partnership between India and Israel.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
