One war casts a long shadow over another. Forgotten in the shadow of the Iran War, the dangerous escalation in the Pakistan-Afghanistan war is going unnoticed; however, as history has shown, the conflict in Afghanistan not only tends to last for decades, but has a habit of engulfing major world powers in it.
The world’s fascination with the Iran War is not surprising, given the high stakes for everyone.
Oil has crossed US$100 per barrel, and if the conflict lasts longer and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, it could pull the world into a recession.
However, in the long-run, the Afghanistan-Pakistan War could prove far more destabilizing not just for the region, but for the entire world.
Afghanistan, notwithstanding its sparsely populated rugged mountains, has a habit of engulfing major global powers in its conflicts.
In the last two centuries, three superpowers have found themselves entangled in long, costly wars in Afghanistan: The British Empire in the 19th century, the Soviet Union in the 20th century, and the US in the early 21st century.
While the Iran War might be more glamorous for the global media to cover, the dangerously escalating conflict in Afghanistan is equally, if not more, important.
More worryingly, whether this cycle of violence would serve as an excuse for major powers to get involved in the conflict.
The US left Afghanistan in 2021 after a two-decade-long war, its longest war in history, but there are already signs that Washington might be considering a comeback into the country, which is also described as the ‘Graveyard of Empires’.
The Dangerous Escalation
Pakistan and Afghanistan have been fighting a war since October last year, when Islamabad launched airstrikes in Kabul, Paktika, Khost, and other areas, allegedly targeting TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) leadership.
However, the Taliban claimed that the strikes killed civilians, including children.
At the center of the dispute is Pakistan’s accusation that Afghanistan is sheltering militant groups that launch suicide and gun attacks against Pakistani security forces — a charge the Taliban denies.
While Pakistan has faced terror attacks for more than two decades, last year was particularly deadly for Islamabad. In 2025, over 4,000 people died in terror attacks inside Pakistan, including more than 1,000 security personnel, the deadliest year for the country since 2014.
Pakistan alleged that terrorism has increased in the country ever since the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, as Kabul provides safe havens to TTP militants.
After the airstrikes inside Afghanistan, the Taliban and Pakistan security forces clashed on multiple points along the 2,640-kilometre disputed border.
That same month, Qatar and Turkey helped broker a temporary peace between the Taliban and Pakistani governments, but later negotiations mediated by Saudi Arabia dissolved toward the end of 2025.
Violence escalated dramatically in February this year.
On February 16, a suicide bomber killed 11 Pakistani security personnel and a child at a border security checkpoint, according to Pakistani military reports. On February 22, Islamabad carried out air strikes in eastern and southeastern Afghanistan, allegedly targeting militant camps.
As of March 13, the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan recorded at least 75 civilians killed and 193 injured since the start of this conflict on February 26.
However, on March 16, Pakistan launched an air strike on a drug rehabilitation center in Kabul. A spokesperson for the Afghan Taliban wrote on social media that at least 400 people were killed and 250 were injured.
Afghan government spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid accused Pakistan of deliberately hitting civilian infrastructure and called the assault a “crime against humanity”.
The Taliban further warned that they will now respond to Pakistan in the language it understands.
After the deadly attack, the chances of descalation and an early ceasefire are extremely slim. In all likelihood, violence from both sides will further escalate in the coming days, and this vicious cycle of violence could even involve global powers such as Russia, China, India, or the US.
China is Pakistan’s largest trade and defense partner, and Beijing has invested over US$50 billion in the country under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
On the other hand, Russia is the first and only country to have recognized the Taliban government in Kabul.
Both Moscow and Beijing have offered to mediate for peace between the two countries.
However, the reactions from India and the US are interesting. India condemned Islamabad’s March 16 airstrike on the Kabul hospital, calling it a “heinous act of aggression by Pakistan” and “a blatant assault on Afghanistan’s sovereignty and a direct threat to regional peace and stability”.
New Delhi also called the attack a “barbaric” and “cowardly” act of violence.
Meanwhile, the US has supported Pakistan, saying Islamabad has a right to defend itself. Allison Hooker, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, said last month, “We continue to monitor the situation closely and express support for Pakistan’s right to defend itself against Taliban attacks.”
India and the US’s different stand on the issue becomes even more curious when one looks at the timeline of the beginning of the Afghanistan-Pakistan War last year.
Afghan Foreign Minister’s Visit to India
“In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way” is a famous quote by former US President Franklin D. Roosevelt.
On September 18, 2025, during a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in the United Kingdom, Trump stated that the U.S. was “trying to get it (Bagram air base) back,” saying, “We gave it to them for nothing. We want that base back.”
He highlighted its strategic value, noting it is “an hour away from where China makes its nuclear weapons,” and suggested leverage over the Taliban because “they need things from us.”
Two days later, on September 20, he escalated on Truth Social: “If Afghanistan doesn’t give Bagram Airbase back to those that built it, the United States of America, BAD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN!!!”
Less than 20 days after Trump’s warning to Kabul that ‘bad things are going to happen,’ Islamabad launched massive airstrikes in Afghanistan.
There is another interesting episode in this timeline. On October 9, Afghanistan’s Foreign Minister, Amir Khan Muttaqi, visited India for an unprecedented weeklong trip.
The same day, Islamabad launched its airstrikes in Afghanistan. The airstrikes were widely seen by many as a subtle warning by Islamabad to the Taliban that its overtures to New Delhi will be resisted, with violence if need be, by Pakistan.
This timeline of Trump demanding Bagram, the visit of the Afghanistan foreign minister to India, and Pakistan launching air strikes on many Afghan cities the same day is curious to say the least.
The natural question is whether Islamabad is doing Trump’s bidding to pressure Kabul to hand over Bagram airbase to the US, and is Kabul hedging India as a counterweight to these strong-arm tactics by Pakistan?
What remains undoubted is that both India and the US have strategic interests in Afghanistan, which may be more antagonistic than complementary, and both Washington and New Delhi will keep a keen eye on the situation there.
“War between Pakistan and the Taliban would probably increase the threat [the self-declared Islamic State and al-Qaeda] pose to the United States,” argued Alexander Palmer, fellow for warfare, irregular threats, and terrorism at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Although the United States will likely not be drawn into the conflict, Farah Pandith, a Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) senior fellow and counterterrorism expert, said the escalation between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a “ripe moment for unexpected action” that Washington will be watching closely.
“Emotions are running high around extremists, Iran, and volatility.”
While the US might be interested in a military base to maintain its influence in South Asia and to keep an eye on China, Pakistan might be hoping that the US presence in Afghanistan will pressure the Taliban to take some strict visible action against the TTP.
India’s interest, meanwhile, might be to keep foreign military powers at bay and prevent them from establishing a strong foothold near India’s borders. New Delhi might also be interested in pressurising Pakistan from the West, using Afghanistan to encircle it.
While both India and the US are unlikely to get militarily involved in the Afghanistan-Pakistan War, they can definitely help the warring parties with weapons, finances, and intelligence support to safeguard their own interests.
Their involvement, however, could influence how other nations, including China and Russia, respond to the conflict.
Afghanistan could be the next hotspot where the mutually contradictory interests of global and regional superpowers collide. None of this is a good sign for the war-ravaged Afghanistan that has been involved in turmoil since the 1979 invasion by the Soviet Union.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
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- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
