“No force on earth can stop an idea whose time has come,” is a famous quote by the 19th-century French poet and novelist Victor Hugo. It signifies that when an idea resonates with the needs and demands of a time, it gains unstoppable momentum, ultimately leading to societal change.
And, it seems that the time for the Russia-India-China (RIC) troika has arrived.
The idea itself is not new and has been doing the rounds in diplomatic circles for at least three decades. However, as the saying goes, ‘The fruit falls only when it is ripe,’ the idea of RIC, also known as the ‘Strategic Triangle,’ took its own sweet time to mature and reveal its potential.
Of course, the aberration called ‘Donald Trump’ has been the catalyst that revived a revolutionary idea that can redefine global geopolitics and resurrect a world order not witnessed or even imagined in the last three centuries — a world dominated by the East.
‘The triumph of the Orient, over the Occident,’ after three long centuries of colonialism, defeat, and humiliation.
Of course, one could argue that the last three centuries of Western domination were themselves an aberration, as throughout history, India and China had been the world’s two largest economies.
However, the Industrial Revolution and colonialism shifted the wealth and power in such a way that a world where the West is not the hegemon began to feel like a non-starter.
Of course, Western domination has been challenged before by the Soviet Union, but it ultimately lost the Cold War and has since become a part of history.
In retrospect, it seems that the Soviet Union was bound to lose the Cold War, as most of the Soviet Republics were free-riding on the Russian back, rather than bringing something substantial to the table.
However, that is not the case with RIC, as each constituent of the Troika, or each arc of the ‘Strategic Triangle’, brings unique capabilities and strengths to the table.
However, before we delve into those unique capabilities and strengths, let us first examine the history of the idea.
The Idea Of RIC – Three Decades In The Making
Russian Prime Minister Yevgeni Maximovich Primakov is credited with popularizing the idea of RIC in the 1990s.
In the post-Cold War era, when Russia was in economic turmoil, Primakov proposed a Russia-India-China troika to challenge the unipolar world dominated by the sole superpower, the United States.
Primakov rightly assessed that all three RIC states, despite having multiple conflicts, share a common interest in promoting a multipolar world. Primakov also rightly concluded that Europe is entirely subservient to the US, and only India and China, both countries with long historical traditions and several millennia-old continuous civilizations, could resurrect a credible front to Western domination.
The formal proposal for the RIC “strategic triangle” was put forward by Primakov during an official visit to India in 1998. This is widely regarded as the foundational moment, aimed at offsetting Western alliances.
It took shape in the early 2000s. The first RIC meeting of heads of government was held in 2006.
A significant milestone was the 2007 Delhi Security Summit, where the foreign ministers of the three countries — Li Zhaoxing (China), Pranab Mukherjee (India), and Sergey Lavrov (Russia) — discussed issues of mutual interest.
Between 2002 and 2020, RIC hosted more than 20 ministerial-level meetings; however, these meetings never developed into an alliance, and thus, could not realize their true potential.
The idea was virtually abandoned after the 2020 Galwan Valley clash between India and China, despite Russia’s continued efforts.
Now, the idea has gained renewed momentum in light of Trump’s tariffs and the strategic reset in India-China ties over the last few weeks.
RIC & Its Potential
India and China are two of the world’s most populous countries. The combined population of RIC exceeds three billion, accounting for nearly 37% of the world’s population.
In terms of economy, China is currently the world’s second-largest economy. India is the fourth-largest, and on course to become the third-largest in the next two years. Russia is the 11th-largest.
Their combined GDP is nearly 22.4% of world GDP in nominal terms, and 34.2% in PPP (purchasing-power-parity) terms. Either way, the RIC could serve as a counterweight to the U.S.-led economic blocs, such as the G7, potentially fostering de-dollarization through initiatives like the BRICS payment system.
Additionally, these are among the world’s fastest-growing large economies. According to IMF data, India is expected to be the world’s fastest-growing large economy in 2025, with a GDP growth rate of 6.5%. China’s GDP growth rate is expected to be around 4.8%, and Russia is also expected to grow at a rate of around 1.8%. Together, the RIC bloc will far outstrip the Western bloc in GDP growth.
In terms of land size, RIC controls nearly one-fifth or 20% of the world’s land mass.
The RIC countries also boast some of the world’s largest standing armies. China’s PLA has over 2 million active personnel. India has the world’s largest voluntary army with nearly 1.5 million active soldiers. Russia also has nearly 1.1 million active personnel.
Together, the RIC countries have a standing army of over 4.6 million active personnel.
With reserves adding millions more, RIC’s combined strength exceeds that of NATO’s active forces. This could facilitate cooperation on counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, and regional security, though interoperability remains a challenge due to differing equipment and doctrines.
Furthermore, these countries also have abundant natural resources. Russia has one of the largest oil and gas reserves, and China is a leader in rare earth mineral deposits, as well as a world leader in rare earth mineral processing facilities. Russia and India also have substantial rare earth deposits.
This means that the RIC bloc will have energy security and an assured supply of rare earth magnets, which are critical for emerging technologies such as Electric Vehicles, semiconductors, and military equipment.
The bloc will also enjoy food security, as both Russia and India are major wheat producers, with China and India leading in rice production.
The bloc will also control major sea and trade routes. India is a net security provider in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), while China could potentially dominate the critical South China Sea trade routes.
With Russia, the bloc could also dominate the emerging Northern Sea Route (NSR) through the Arctic region.
The bloc will be militarily independent, as both Russia and China have large military-industrial complexes and technological know-how, and India has also made significant strides in the field. All three countries have advanced missile technologies.
Furthermore, all three countries possess impressive space capabilities, and collectively, they can present a significant challenge to NASA.
India and China are natural leaders of the Global South, and Russia and China are permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC). India, though not a current member, has a strong case to become a permanent member of the UNSC in the future. This would ensure that the bloc will enjoy strong diplomatic support, and the US will struggle to isolate the bloc geopolitically.
In short, the RIC bloc will possess energy security, food security, geopolitical influence, stable supply chains for rare earth magnets, large standing armies, robust military-industrial complexes, advanced military and space technologies, substantial economies, and control over critical sea trade routes.
Furthermore, the three countries are geographically contiguous and could easily come to each other’s defense.
In effect, the bloc will be invincible, either militarily, economically, or technologically.
However, this is easier said than done, and the primary stumbling block is the state of India-China ties. The two countries have a large, unsettled, and contested border, have witnessed multiple major flare-ups in recent years, and, perhaps, most importantly, see each other as strategic rivals.
However, the world has seen unthinkable geopolitical realignments in the past. Let us not forget that the Soviet Union and China also shared a fairly antagonistic relationship, marked by substantial border disputes.
However, Russia and China have overcome their border disputes and become natural strategic partners. There is no reason why a similar turnover can not happen between New Delhi and Beijing.
If, truly, the time for the RIC idea has arrived, then, as the saying goes, no force in the world, or no contradictions between its constituent parties, can stop this idea.
Perhaps the only thing required is for Russia, India, and China to realize the true potential of their alliance.
- Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from the University of Sheffield, UK.
- THIS IS AN OP-ED. VIEWS PERSONAL OF THE AUTHOR.
- He can be reached at ahlawat.sumit85 (at) gmail.com
