There are apprehensions that US President Donald Trump is headed towards starting a new military conflict against Venezuela.
Over the past four months, the US has steadily built up its military presence in the Caribbean.
This includes deployments of naval vessels, aircraft, and troops described as the largest U.S. presence in the area since the 1989 invasion of Panama.
The buildup reportedly began in August 2025 with air and naval forces, including a nuclear-powered submarine, the US’s latest and most advanced aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford, and surveillance aircraft, and has continued steadily through the fall.
During this period, the U.S. military has taken several offensive steps against Venezuela. The U.S. has so far launched over two dozen lethal strikes on vessels in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean, alleged to be involved in drug trafficking. According to reports, nearly 100 people have already died in these strikes.
At the end of November, Trump publicly stated that the airspace “above and surrounding Venezuela” should be considered “closed in its entirety” to airlines, pilots, and traffickers.
To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY. Thank you for your attention to this matter! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 29, 2025
Besides, the US Air Force (USAF) combat jets, such as the B-1 Lancer bombers and B-52 bombers, and the US Navy’s F/A-18 fighter jets, flew over the Gulf of Venezuela during the US military’s “show of force”.
In December, US forces seized the oil tanker Skipper off Venezuela’s coast in international waters.
Caracas alleges that the US is trying to enforce regime change in Venezuela.
These escalating steps suggested that the US is gradually moving towards initiating a military action against Venezuela.
However, Trump’s latest announcement suggests that he has a new gameplan, which involves defeating Venezuela and forcing President Nicolás Maduro to resign, without initiating an all-out war.
Trump Announces ‘Total And Complete’ Blockade Of Sanctioned Oil Tankers
On December 16, Trump announced a sharp escalation in Washington’s actions against Venezuela, declaring that his administration would designate President Nicolás Maduro’s regime as a foreign terrorist organisation while ordering a blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers moving in and out of the country.
“For the theft of our Assets, and many other reasons, including Terrorism, Drug Smuggling, and Human Trafficking, the Venezuelan Regime has been designated a FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
“Therefore, today, I am ordering A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela.”
“The illegitimate Maduro Regime is using Oil from these stolen Oil Fields to finance themselves, Drug Terrorism, Human Trafficking, Murder, and Kidnapping,” Trump added.
Trump’s lengthy post on Truth Social stands out for two crucial points:
(a) The Maduro Regime depends on oil revenue for its survival.
(b) The US will enforce “A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela.”
The announcement assumes significance as it comes just days after the US forces seized an oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast.
US seizure of MT Skipper off the coast of Venezuela:
— Liberty + (@dmills3710) December 12, 2025
The administration said the vessel was transporting “sanctioned oil” from Venezuela and Iran, and Trump has stated that the US intends to keep the oil that was on board.
The seizure of the oil tanker and the announcement by Trump to enforce a “total blockade” on all sanctioned oil tankers moving in and out of Venezuela mark a new stage and a new strategy in the four-month-old conflict.
Blockade Of Sanctioned Oil Tankers
For years, Venezuela has used the same tactics to get around US sanctions on oil, as Iran and, of late, Russia have, employing a shadow fleet of oil tankers, mostly aging vessels, to carry crude oil to its international customers.
However, Trump’s announcement to enforce a complete blockade on sanctioned vessels threatens to disrupt this carefully cultivated black market.
The announcement means that the US military will go after a network of ships already sanctioned by the US Treasury Department.
According to reports, such tankers account for nearly 70% of Venezuela’s oil exports, mostly to Asian countries that pay Caracas in cryptocurrencies to avoid US sanctions.
If Caracas loses access to this shadow fleet of tankers, the country’s revenue could drop by as much as USD 8 billion, according to Venezuelan economist Asdrubal Oliveros.
Since the US’s unprecedented action on December 10, seizing a sanctioned tanker transporting Venezuelan oil, many sanctioned tankers are rethinking their strategy and involvement in the Venezuelan oil trade.
On December 17, the Wall Street Journal reported that some sanctioned tankers have already turned around to avoid the US Navy flotilla in the Caribbean.
Currently, about 75 tankers are loitering in Venezuelan waters, and nearly half of them are on the US Treasury’s blacklist for sanctions violators, according to TankerTrackers.com.
Also, it must be noted that while Iran and Russia have been successful in working around US sanctions for years through their extensive network of shadow fleet, Venezuela is more vulnerable to an oil embargo for two reasons.
First, Venezuela is located in South America, considered to be a US backyard, where Washington can easily enforce a blockade. However, the US cannot enforce such a blockade in the Persian Gulf or the Black Sea.
For instance, in 2021, the US Navy, as per the claims made by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy, tried to seize a Vietnamese-flagged oil tanker, the MV Sothys, near the Sea of Oman.
However, after the IRGC Navy interwined, the US Navy destroyers withdrew.
Similarly, in 2007, 15 crew members of the UK’s HMS Cornwall, tracking an Iraqi vessel, entered Iranian waters and were detained by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
After 13 days, Iranian President Ahmadinejad announced their release, calling it a “gift” to the British people.
In 2021, the IRGC Navy intercepted a tanker in the Sea of Oman. Two Arleigh Burke destroyers (DDG-68, DDG-112), armed Seahawk helicopters, and a Sentinel-class vessel attempted to intervene for several hours. They failed, withdrew, and the tanker was escorted toward Iran. https://t.co/sWHsN4no8k pic.twitter.com/3PJCRVMfGT
— Mohammad Hassan Sangtarash (@MHSangtarash) December 18, 2025
These events were part of a series of maritime confrontations between the U.S. and Iran over oil shipments and sanctions enforcement in the critical Gulf waterways.
They underline how the US could not enforce a strict oil embargo against Iran in the Persian Gulf.
Secondly, Caracas is not an independent military power like Tehran or Moscow. Russia is the world’s biggest nuclear power, and Iran also has a formidable arsenal of drones and ballistic and cruise missiles.
Cutting oil revenues would be a significant blow to the Maduro government and would affect his personal fortunes and the income of his inner circle.
Besides, strict enforcement by the US would curtail foreign-currency inflows, stoking food shortages in a country critically dependent on imports and triggering sky-high inflation.
According to experts, Venezuela’s inflation could reach 700% by next year.
This will increase difficulties for an already unpopular Maduro government.
Notably, with 11 US Navy warships already deployed in the Caribbean, apart from the world’s largest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford, a nuclear-powered submarine, and dozens of surveillance and combat aircraft, the US has the means and capability to enforce a strict blockade of Venezuela’s oil trade.
This means that the US strategy of sanctioning the oil trade, which failed against Iran and Russia, has a good chance of succeeding against Venezuela, and the Trump administration can enforce regime change in Caracas without fighting an all-out war.
